About That Georgia Runoff…

Last Tuesday [December 6, 2022] was the runoff election for U.S. Senate in Georgia.

Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock, above left, was re-elected to a first full term and, at the same time, defeated his Republican challenger, former football star Herschel Walker.

Media narrative is that this is much Donald Trump’s fault. He inserted himself into the 2022 Republican primaries and endorsed many who did not win the general election. They are not entirely wrong. But, I don’t think that explains enough.

I would assert that we are dealing with realigning periods and voting patterns.

We are in a realigning period in which the presidency of the United States is being most dominantly won by the Democratic Party. Three of the last four elections cycles—2008, 2012, and 2020—were won by the Democrats. (Historically, no past period has seen a given political party win three of four cycles and not experienced the presidency realigned in their favor.) 

Referring to past realigning periods, considering just the two major political parties of today, Republican vs. Democratic, one can take this back to 1860. Every realigning period—1860 (Republican); 1896 (Republican, renewal); 1932 (Democratic); 1968 (Republican)—saw the newly favored party win at least 70 percent of election cycles for the next 30-plus-year period. (All of those periods’s U.S. presidents, presiding over those realignments, won re-elections.) The previous realigning period, for the Republicans, ran 7 of 10 cycles between 1968–2004. The others cited were each 9 cycles in which each dominant party won 7. So, they amounted to 70 to 77 percent of election cycles for dominance.

The current one, which began in 2008 with a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Barack Obama, has so far run a 40-year parallel to the previous one. This will be especially the case—and to the point of no denial—if the Democrats win again in 2024. The five cycles of 1968 to 1984 were 4-to-1 in favor of the Republicans. They won Elections 1968, 1972, 1980, and 1984. So far, here in 2022, the Democrats won 2008, 2012, and 2020 with 2024 in the future. And where that leaves this is a possible 40-year parallel with the in-between cycles—1976 (Democratic) and 2016 (Republican)—for the disadvantaged party.

If I was to seriously guess, as if I was under pressure, which party will prevail for U.S. President in 2024…I would go with the Democratic Party. The Republican Party of today is reminding me of the Democratic Party from forty years ago—that they are a joke. Back in the 1980s, with winning only 1-for-6 cycles, from 1968 to 1988, the Democratic Party was considered the joke. Even the NBC comedy series The Golden Girls (1985–1992) had a scene in which Rose [Betty White] showed the Girls a dog who she claims is great at fetching and can find anything. Sophia [Estelle Getty] responded by saying to that dog, Find me a viable Democratic presidential candidate. The Republicans of today appear lost and out of touch and, with that, they look like they are not in a position to win back the White House in 2024. (It would be the third consecutive election cycle to deliver a White House party switch. The most consecutive cycles were four. They played out in 1884, 1888, 1892, and 1896.) When a party is on the losing side of a realigning period, it ends up getting sick of being on that losing side. It ends up becoming forced to change. To change their party. This is especially so with the issue of abortion which, despite flipping the U.S. House, cost the GOP in the recent 2022 midterm elections—notably in races the Republicans could and should have won (a standout state was Kansas)—and this may cost them again in 2024. (Today’s Democrats can use abortion as yesterday’s Republicans used guns for their electoral success.) 

When it comes to realignments, one can refer to other forms. This has me thinking of realigning changes in voting patterns in particular states. 

After Election 2020, I noted that—for the first time since 1960—Ohio did not vote for the winner. I wrote about it here: The State of Ohio: A Bellwether No More. 

I have also observed that, since 1968, every time the White House party switched, a pickup winning Republican or Democrat won over at least one state which has since not voted for the party which lost it. 

• 1968 Republican pickup winner Richard Nixon won over to his party: *Alaska (which, so far, has carried only once, in 1964, for the Democratic Party); Idaho; Kansas; Nebraska (statewide, and its 1st and 3rd congressional districts); North Dakota; Oklahoma; South Dakota; Utah; and Wyoming. 

• 1976 Democratic pickup winner Jimmy Carter won over: Minnesota. 

• 1980 Republican pickup winner Ronald Reagan won over: Alabama; Mississippi; South Carolina; and Texas.

• 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton won over: California; Connecticut; Delaware; Illinois; Maine (statewide and its 1st congressional district); Maryland; New Jersey; and Vermont.

• 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush won over: Arkansas; Kentucky; Louisiana; Missouri; Tennessee; and West Virginia.

• 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama won over: Colorado; Nevada; New Mexico; and Virginia.

The last two U.S. presidential election cycles, 2016 and 2020, were also White House party switches. Three states were carried each time: Pennsylvania and Michigan, which are Top 10 populous states, and Wisconsin. This leads me to separate the rest because I anticipate the next White House party switch—which go from Democratic to Republican—will once again do some reshuffling on the map.

The 2016 Republican pickups, specifically for Donald Trump, which likely realigned: Florida; Iowa; Ohio; with Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.

The 2020 Democratic pickups, specifically for Joe Biden, which likely realigned: Arizona; Georgia; with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

I am certain of this, in part, because historically there has never been one U.S. presidential election whose electoral map was later duplicated. (For example: There are differences in the last two winning Republicans, George W. Bush and Donald Trump, who both won their first-term elections with 30 states. Likewise with comparing the 2012 and 2020 Democratic wins, to the tune of 26 and 25 states, for Barack Obama and Joe Biden.) There is too much to consider—with the dynamics and complexities—involving human nature and issues throughout history in a nation especially as large as the U.S. 

To explain these realignments, for voting change, I will next focus on the four biggest states applicable to Elections 2016 and 2020:

Ohio

Realigning this state from quintessential bellwether to Republican was made possible thanks to the trade deals, ushered in by the Democrats (like Bill Clinton), and 2016 Donald Trump addressing the issue. (There is also the fact Ohio voted for the winners in 14 consecutive cycles from 1964 to 2016. Longest unbroken streak, with 16 consecutive cycles from 1912 to 1972, belongs to Nevada and New Mexico.) The northeast counties Trumbull (Warren) and Mahoning (Youngstown), both of which carried for re-electing Barack Obama with more 60 percent of their votes, by more than +20 percentage points when he won statewide by +3 (with a U.S. Popular Vote margin nearly +4), shifted far enough to flip Republican in 2016 and 2020 for Trump. More counties, as bellwethers to the state and/or national outcomes—notably, Portage (Ravenna) and Wood (Bowling Green)—have also broken patterns to realign Republican.

Florida

The 2018 midterm elections effectively told us Florida was realigning when Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson became unseated by GOP challenger Rick Scott for U.S. Senate. In 2012, Nelson won by over +1 million raw votes and +13 percentage points (as Barack Obama was re-elected and carried the state by under +75,000 votes and +0.88 points). This suggested, in 2018, Nelson should easily get re-elected—and pull in gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum in a Democratic pickup. What happened, instead, was Florida voters elected Ron DeSantis in a GOP hold for governor by +0.40 and a Republican U.S. Senate pickup for Rick Scott by +0.15; meaning, tight margins as won by the same party; suggesting a clear party preference. The 2022 gubernatorial and senatorial margins, for re-elections for DeSantis and U.S. senator Marco Rubio, were also close to each other. Miami–Dade County (Miami), which has been carrying for Democrats, for U.S. President, with nearly or at 60 percent, is trending red. In 2016, It gave Hillary Clinton a margin of +29.39 percentage points. (She received 63 percent of the vote.) 2020 Joe Biden carried it by only +7.33. (He received 52 percent of the vote.) In the 2022 midterm elections, both DeSantis and Rubio—with statewide margins exceeding +1 million votes and +15 percentage points—flipped Miami–Dade County. This is the No. 1 most-populous county in Florida. For a Democrat to carry it over a long period, then barely carry it (in a year in which they flipped the presidency), and then lose it in a midterm (when normally they would still manage to carry it)…makes it likely the Democrats will not carry Florida, for U.S. President, for some time.

Arizona

Realigning this state to the Democrats begins with Donald Trump underperforming Maricopa County (Phoenix) in 2016, winning there by +2.84 percentage points when his statewide margin was +3.50. (His U.S. Popular Vote margin was –2.09. Had a normal pattern played out, that would have been his positive-side margin.) Here is the problem: Republicans used to typically carry Maricopa County +2 or +3 above their statewide margins. This set up Democratic pickups for 2018 Kyrsten Sinema, for U.S. Senate; 2020 Joe Biden and Mark Kelly, for U.S. President and U.S. Senate; and 2022 Katie Hobbs, for Governor of Arizona. They all won over Maricopa County with higher margins than their statewide results. With over 60 percent of citizens in this county, in addition to second-ranked and Democratic-aligned Pima County (Tucson), which is around 15 percent of the vote, they combine for just over 75 percent of the statewide vote. Add another Top 10 populous county, Coconino County (Flagstaff), and this renders Republicans unlikely to win back Arizona, for U.S. President, for some time. In fact: If the next Republican presidential pickup winner fails to flip and carry Arizona, which entered the union as the nation’s 48th state and voted for the first time in 1912, it would mark the first time in that political party’s history that they won the presidency without this state.

Georgia

A trio of counties in Metro Atlanta—Gwinnett (Lawrenceville), Cobb (Marietta), and Henry (McDonough)—have realigned to the Democrats. They are Top 10 populous counties in Georgia. Henry flipped for U.S. Senate nominee Michelle Nunn in 2014. That county plus Gwinnett and Cobb flipped for U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. (This marked the first time a Democratic nominee carried all three since the period of Jimmy Carter.) All three also flipped yet further solidified Democratic margins for 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacy Abrams. Nunn lost statewide by –7.68 percentage points. Clinton lost statewide by –5.10. Abrams lost statewide by –1.39. Then Joe Biden won a 2020 Democratic pickup of Georgia, with rock-solid margins in all three counties, with a statewide margin of +0.24. The 2020 U.S. Senate flipped Democratic with Georgia serving as the tipping-point state as both Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock prevailed in runoff elections—and obviously with all three key counties—while unseating Republican incumbents David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. And yet there is another key county positioning the Democrats to realign Georgia. In Fayette County (Fayetteville), in the southwest area of Metro Atlanta and the state’s No. 21 most-populous county, the trajectory has been dramatic. In 2004, re-elected Republican U.S. president George W. Bush won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.46 and carried Georgia by +16.60. Bush won Fayette County by around +43 points, reaching 70 percent of the county’s vote. In 2020, as Joe Biden flipped the state, Fayette County held Republican by +6.80. In five election cycles, the county went from +27 down to +7 points in favor of the GOP. In the 2022 midterm elections for U.S. Senate, it reduced Republican-level support for Hershel Walker by under a five-point advantage. In the runoff, Walker carried the county by just under +500 raw votes and by approximately +0.90 percentage points. (Warnock won statewide by close to +2.75.)

In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama was elected and re-elected with Ohio and Florida while he never once carried either Arizona or Georgia.

In the 2020s, for the Democrats—if they prevail in 2024 (Joe Biden or other)—Arizona and Georgia will be in their column while they will not carry either Ohio or Florida.

This information is why I think the 2022 runoff election for U.S. Senate from Georgia says much more than any media commentary on why Herschel Walker was defeated by Raphael Warnock.

A related video, speaking to change in Georgia, is posted below.