Coming Soon (But Not in August)…

The last two weeks included political topics which, in part, are about the electoral arena—specifically with regard for third-party support and that of a rising bellwether state.

This week is an alert.

I feel like not engaging much this early with numerous Election 2024 topics because, frankly, I don’t personally look forward to next year’s elections. I am not, let’s say, inspired.

I will address Election 2024, closer to a year out, in the Fall. This would be most likely in October 2023.

I am guessing my decision will not be controversial for the readers here at Progressives Chat.

Next In Line

The 2024 re-election campaign for United States president Joe Biden has a new target state: North Carolina. (Source: Biden looks to put North Carolina on ’24 map.)

The Tar Heel State is on the radar for the 2024 Democrats, with the party and the administration wanting to hold onto the presidency, for some reasons which are easy to understand.

#01. The 2024 Democrats, wanting to win, are taking the pro-active position to expand the map.

#02. North Carolina is the best state for easiest reach.

Typically what happens in a U.S. presidential election in which we get a party switch, as occurred in both 2016 (Republican pickup for Donald Trump) and 2020 (Democratic pickup for Joe Biden), is that the map unfolds with a pickup-winning party carrying everything from their column in the previous cycle (which said party lost) before winning pickups of involved, applicable states (and, if also applicable, any congressional districts like with the 2nd congressional districts in each of 2016 Maine and 2020 Nebraska). So, 2016 Donald Trump carried everything, as a starting point, which were in the 2012 Republican column for Mitt Romney. That 2020 Joe Biden carried everything, as a starting point, which were in the 2016 Democratic column for Hillary Clinton. 

This is logical. If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup of the presidency, North Carolina—which held in the 2020 GOP column for Trump—carries as a Republican hold before that given GOP presidential pickup winner wins pickups from involved, applicable states to get the map to reach 270.

A part of what makes North Carolina attractive for the 2024 Democrats is this: If there is anything on the map for the 2020 Republicans (unseated Trump) which does not hold, because of having flipped to the Democrats, the Democrats will prevail. This occurred, as examples, with 1996 re-elected Democrat Bill Clinton as losing Republican challenger Bob Dole failed to hold Arizona and Florida (both which were in the 1992 Republican column for unseated incumbent George Bush); also with 2004 re-elected Republican George W. Bush as losing Democratic challenger John Kerry failed to hold Iowa and New Mexico (both which were in the 2000 Democratic column for losing nominee and then-U.S. vice president Al Gore).

North Carolina is the easiest reach for this reason: Over the last four presidential election cycles—2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—just three states were carried every time: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. North Carolina, for its reliability record, got it “wrong” in 2012 (a Republican pickup for losing nominee Romney) and 2020 (a Republican hold for unseated Trump). In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected having carried 26 states. (That was a decline from 28 states, in 2008, which included a then-Democratic pickup of North Carolina.) In 2020, Biden won his party switch of the presidency with having carried 25 states. When looking at the list of carried states, and ranking all by their percentage-points margins (and in descending order),  and then looking at what did not carry: the next state in line—both times—was North Carolina. It was 2012 Obama’s No. 27 best-performed state. It was 2020 Biden’s No. 26 best-performed state. A 2012 Obama was re-elected with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +3.86 percentage points. (Result: Obama 51.01% vs. Romney 47.15%.) A 2020 Biden prevailed in the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 percentage points. (Result: Biden 51.26% vs. Trump 46.80%.) When you round off those margins to whole numbers, you can say they won the U.S. Popular Vote by +4. Each percentage point by which a presidential winner carries the U.S. Popular Vote typically yields carriage of one more state. The Democrats, as apparent with 2012 Obama and 2020 Biden, need to nowadays win nationally by +5 to carry North Carolina. That is, basically, an outcome of 51-vs.-46 or 52-vs.-47 percent. 

This is achievable due to a pattern established since 1992. Winning Democrats have averaged +5.93 percentage points in the U.S. Popular Vote. (Although 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump did not win over the U.S. Popular Vote, adjusted margins for both on the positive side—and dealing with a whole number—would have reached +2. A 2004 Bush won by +2.46.)

In 2018, I wrote about the nation’s leading bellwether states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—here: Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I made this prediction: “I am predicting that the winner of the 2020 United States presidential election will carry the Rust Belt trio of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.”

That did happen.

In this current year, 2023, I will make this prediction for Election 2024: The winning party—which also means candidate (incumbent or otherwise)—will carry all four of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin…and, yes, North Carolina.

That will likely happen.

It will likely happen, in part, because no past election’s electoral map has ever been duplicated. For example: 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump both carried 30 states. Differences: Carried by 2000 Bush (but not 2016 Trump): Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Carried by 2016 Trump (but not 2000 Bush): Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (as well as Maine’s 2nd Congressional District).

So…

✓ Republican pickup of the presidency? Flip the trio from the Rust Belt. 

✓ Democratic hold of the presidency? Flip the Tar Heel State.

I categorize Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as the nation’s Leading Bellwether States.

I now categorize North Carolina as the nation’s Sleeper Bellwether State.

Supporting Third-Party Candidacies

I support running for office, in general, and including for the presidency of the United States, by persons outside the two major U.S. political parties.

I support Cornel West’s decision to run outside the two major political parties.

A person who runs outside the two major political parties, and what votes he receives, do not belong to either of the two major political parties.

Since 2000—a Republican pickup of the presidency to George W. Bush (in an election year in which the nation had to elect a new president because the incumbent, Democrat Bill Clinton, was term-limited)—the Democrats have created and pushed a narrative to excuse their losses. 

The Democratic Party’s election-loss excuses tend to more often get expressed in election cycles which switch the presidency to the column of the Republican Party. And the narrative tends to be that the Democratic Party did not earn their loss. The excuse is that a candidate outside the two major political parties earned votes that belong to the Democratic Party.

This Democratic Party narrative was pedaled in 2000 and in 2016. It was used against Green Party nominees Ralph Nader and Jill Stein. This was done with the intent to create a belief in Loyal Democrats—or those more likely to generally vote for the Democrats before they would vote for the Republicans—to buy into, to keep accepting, willful failures by the Democratic Party. To get people who are willing to listen—and are willing to believe; to not question; to not analyze—to excuse and continue to support the Democratic Party.

A part of this is also designed to get people who are Loyal Democrats, or would vote Democrat before they would vote Republican, to feel they and this nation need the Democrats; rather than it being the Democratic Party who should be needing these citizens and their votes.

I see a part of this, which also includes voter-shaming and voter-bullying, to be a form of psychological warfare (or, as some label it, a psyop).

The Democratic Party is a scam operation. 

The Democratic Party is full of con artists.

I reject the Democratic Party. 

I support the decisions of Ralph Nader, Jill Stein, and Cornel West—and anyone else I should name—to run outside not just the Republican Party but especially the Democratic Party.

2023 Summer Vacation Break, Week #02

This is the second week of this 2023 Summer Break. 

There will be no specific topic for this week.

Next Monday, July 17, 2023 will mark a return with a new blog topic.

2023 Summer Vacation Break, Week #01

Tuesday, July 4, 2023 is Independence Day.

I wish for everyone a safe and pleasant Fourth of July.

I will be taking this, and next, week as a “Vacation Break”—with good timing, for the Summer, to take a break from having to post a specific topic.

Return to regular topics will be scheduled for Monday, July 17, 2023.