Next In Line

The 2024 re-election campaign for United States president Joe Biden has a new target state: North Carolina. (Source: Biden looks to put North Carolina on ’24 map.)

The Tar Heel State is on the radar for the 2024 Democrats, with the party and the administration wanting to hold onto the presidency, for some reasons which are easy to understand.

#01. The 2024 Democrats, wanting to win, are taking the pro-active position to expand the map.

#02. North Carolina is the best state for easiest reach.

Typically what happens in a U.S. presidential election in which we get a party switch, as occurred in both 2016 (Republican pickup for Donald Trump) and 2020 (Democratic pickup for Joe Biden), is that the map unfolds with a pickup-winning party carrying everything from their column in the previous cycle (which said party lost) before winning pickups of involved, applicable states (and, if also applicable, any congressional districts like with the 2nd congressional districts in each of 2016 Maine and 2020 Nebraska). So, 2016 Donald Trump carried everything, as a starting point, which were in the 2012 Republican column for Mitt Romney. That 2020 Joe Biden carried everything, as a starting point, which were in the 2016 Democratic column for Hillary Clinton. 

This is logical. If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup of the presidency, North Carolina—which held in the 2020 GOP column for Trump—carries as a Republican hold before that given GOP presidential pickup winner wins pickups from involved, applicable states to get the map to reach 270.

A part of what makes North Carolina attractive for the 2024 Democrats is this: If there is anything on the map for the 2020 Republicans (unseated Trump) which does not hold, because of having flipped to the Democrats, the Democrats will prevail. This occurred, as examples, with 1996 re-elected Democrat Bill Clinton as losing Republican challenger Bob Dole failed to hold Arizona and Florida (both which were in the 1992 Republican column for unseated incumbent George Bush); also with 2004 re-elected Republican George W. Bush as losing Democratic challenger John Kerry failed to hold Iowa and New Mexico (both which were in the 2000 Democratic column for losing nominee and then-U.S. vice president Al Gore).

North Carolina is the easiest reach for this reason: Over the last four presidential election cycles—2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—just three states were carried every time: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. North Carolina, for its reliability record, got it “wrong” in 2012 (a Republican pickup for losing nominee Romney) and 2020 (a Republican hold for unseated Trump). In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected having carried 26 states. (That was a decline from 28 states, in 2008, which included a then-Democratic pickup of North Carolina.) In 2020, Biden won his party switch of the presidency with having carried 25 states. When looking at the list of carried states, and ranking all by their percentage-points margins (and in descending order),  and then looking at what did not carry: the next state in line—both times—was North Carolina. It was 2012 Obama’s No. 27 best-performed state. It was 2020 Biden’s No. 26 best-performed state. A 2012 Obama was re-elected with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +3.86 percentage points. (Result: Obama 51.01% vs. Romney 47.15%.) A 2020 Biden prevailed in the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 percentage points. (Result: Biden 51.26% vs. Trump 46.80%.) When you round off those margins to whole numbers, you can say they won the U.S. Popular Vote by +4. Each percentage point by which a presidential winner carries the U.S. Popular Vote typically yields carriage of one more state. The Democrats, as apparent with 2012 Obama and 2020 Biden, need to nowadays win nationally by +5 to carry North Carolina. That is, basically, an outcome of 51-vs.-46 or 52-vs.-47 percent. 

This is achievable due to a pattern established since 1992. Winning Democrats have averaged +5.93 percentage points in the U.S. Popular Vote. (Although 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump did not win over the U.S. Popular Vote, adjusted margins for both on the positive side—and dealing with a whole number—would have reached +2. A 2004 Bush won by +2.46.)

In 2018, I wrote about the nation’s leading bellwether states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—here: Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I made this prediction: “I am predicting that the winner of the 2020 United States presidential election will carry the Rust Belt trio of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.”

That did happen.

In this current year, 2023, I will make this prediction for Election 2024: The winning party—which also means candidate (incumbent or otherwise)—will carry all four of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin…and, yes, North Carolina.

That will likely happen.

It will likely happen, in part, because no past election’s electoral map has ever been duplicated. For example: 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump both carried 30 states. Differences: Carried by 2000 Bush (but not 2016 Trump): Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Carried by 2016 Trump (but not 2000 Bush): Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (as well as Maine’s 2nd Congressional District).

So…

✓ Republican pickup of the presidency? Flip the trio from the Rust Belt. 

✓ Democratic hold of the presidency? Flip the Tar Heel State.

I categorize Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as the nation’s Leading Bellwether States.

I now categorize North Carolina as the nation’s Sleeper Bellwether State.