Election 2024: Six Months Out

This blog topic is six months from the scheduled general election of Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

It will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election in the history of the United States.

The above map was posted in February. Status is the same. But I will give an update on estimates.

If asked to predict, right now, the outcome, I would say Donald Trump pulls a Grover Cleveland—think 1892 having followed 1888 (both against Benjamin Harrison)—by getting revenge, from 2020, with unseating Joe Biden here in 2024. (Gallup reported April 26, 2024 Biden’s job approval is 38.7 percent. Link: Biden's 13th-Quarter Approval Average Lowest Historically.)

Three key issues: Inflation; Immigration; and Israel–Hamas Conflct.

The states in yellow, “On Watch,” were in the 2020 Democratic column for Biden. This includes the top bellwether states. (I wrote about them here: Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.) What I think, at this point, will become 2024 Republican pickups for Trump are listed below. Please keep in mind this: In 2020, when Trump was unseated by Biden, he carried 25 states, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which now combine for 235 electoral votes. He needs a net gain of only +35 electoral votes—the sum of allocated electoral votes from Pennsylvania (19) and Georgia (16)—and 235 of 270 means Trump is 87.03 percent within reach.

26. Georgia (cumulative 251 electoral votes)

27. Arizona (cumulative 262 electoral votes)

28. Wisconsin (cumulative 272 electoral votes—Potential Tipping-Point State)

29. Michigan (cumulative 287 electoral votes)

30. Pennsylvania (cumulative 306 electoral votes)

31. Nevada (cumulative 312 electoral votes)

The rest of the“ On Watch” list—in alphabetical order: Maine (state); Minnesota; New Hampshire; New Mexico; and non-state Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District—requires higher percentage-points margins nationwide to yield even more pickups to go beyond 31 carried states. 

For a prevailing Republican to carry exactly 31 states and, with it, the U.S. Popular Vote, that national margin would be either +2 or, more likely, +3. (Say, Biden 46% vs. Trump 49%.) So, to go higher would bring in more pickups. For all others in yellow to also flip, we would be looking at Republican +6. (Say, Biden 44% vs. Trump 50%. Remainder in percentages of votes—for the full 100 percent—would combine for all other candidates.) At this point, I don’t think it will end up quite so high. 

This map result—Biden 226 vs. Trump 312—is commonly estimated by some content creators with videos on YouTube. It is also in line with polling on the “Swing States”—including Trump’s 2020 Republican hold of North Carolina—as commonly reported since last November as the key states.