We are six weeks from Election Day, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and I am not fully confident to predict who—Democratic incumbent U.S. vice president Kamala Harris or previous Republican-affiliated U.S. president Donald Trump—will win this election. (Side note: Effective with this publishing date, I am sensing it is Harris, rather than Trump, who has a slight advantage.)
The polls favored Harris, after U.S president Joe Biden dropped out, for much of August. During the early weeks of September, it has been looking better for Trump. It’s a back-and-forth thing. (More polls lean favorably to Harris.)
The map is a return to the focused “Swing States” which were polled from, say, November 2023 through at least the first half of 2024. They are each a “Tossup” and in Yellow. “Tossup” is centered because their combined 94 electoral votes make the mathematical difference with reaching 270. Solid Blue [incumbent party] and Red [opposition party] would be 2020-to-2024 party holds.
On the “Tossup” list: Nevada was a 2016-to-2020 Democratic hold … Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia were 2016 Republican-to-2020 Democratic pickups … North Carolina was a 2016-to-2020 Republican hold. They all have the potential to end up in the column for the winner. (Frankly, nearly all or all are likely to do just that.)
If Kamala Harris wins this election, her electoral-map potential are 26 carried states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia, for up to 319 electoral votes.
If Donald Trump wins this election, his electoral-map potential are 31 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, for up to 313 electoral votes.
I will note a historic fact: There has been no past United States presidential election’s electoral map which was later duplicated.
An easy companion is with looking at winners from the same party.
In 2000 and 2016, then-Republican presidential pickup winners George W. Bush and Trump each carried 30 states. Their maps were different. Carried by Bush: Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Carried by Trump: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
Here in 2024, if it turns out Democratic nominee Harris wins and carries 26 states, she will match that number with 2012 re-elected Democrat Barack Obama. Their maps would also be different. Carried by Obama: Florida, Iowa, and Ohio plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Carried by Harris: Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
At least one of those in Yellow, with respect to Elections 2020 to 2024, will change color.
Note to Readers:
This is my last electoral-map preview for Election 2024 [U.S. President]. Numerous states begin early and absentee voting in October. (This includes my home state Michigan.) The next electoral map for U.S. President will be my predictions. That will publish Monday, October 28, 2024. The following week will be the elections. That will publish on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5, 2024, at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Thank you, to Everyone, and most especially to cathyx (who helped me with its launch), for the continuation of this blog site.
I want to keep going.
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