Election 2024: U.S. Senate [Preview]

Last week addressed the current status, “The Race,” on the 2024 United States presidential election.

This week is the U.S. Senate. 

All states in yellow are susceptible to seeing their Democratic-held seats potentially flip Republican. 

Three of these states have an alignment for the Republicans for U.S. President: Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. And the third-mentioned state is guaranteed to flip. (This is why it is in light red.)

Five of the seven “Tossup” states, a common focus on the “Swing States,” are on the schedule: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Exceptions: Georgia and North Carolina.)

I want to offer the following for consideration:

Established Patterns

🟣 Since 1976, every U.S. presidential election in which Wisconsin had a scheduled U.S. Senate election resulted in same-party carriage. Winning Democrats: 1976 (Jimmy Carter and William Proxmire); 1988 (Michael Dukakis and Herb Kohl); 1992 (Bill Clinton and Russ Feingold); 2000 (Al Gore and Kohl); 2004 (John Kerry and Feingold); and 2012 (Barack Obama and Tammy Baldwin who is the incumbent whose seat is on the schedule here in 2024). Winning Republicans: 1980 (Ronald Reagan and Bob Kasten); and 2016 (Donald Trump and Ron Johnson).

🟣 Since the Republican Party won their first U.S. presidential election with Abraham Lincoln in 1860, Pennsylvania has not had both its U.S. Senate seats in the column for the Democratic Party for longer than four years. In the midterm elections of 2022, John Fetterman was a Democratic pickup winner. If Bob Casey wins re-election, with this seat next on the schedule in 2030, the Democrats will break this pattern.

Recent Elections

🟣 In 2016, every state which was on the schedule for U.S. Senate carried for the same party which won that given state for U.S. President. This was the first time this ever occurred in the history of U.S. presidential elections. 

🟣 In 2020, this pattern repeated. Well, it did in all states except Maine. A state with a split allocation of its electoral votes, Democrats Joe Biden and Sara Gideon won the 1st Congressional District while Republicans Donald Trump and Susan Collins won the 2nd Congressional District. Statewide winners: Biden and Collins.

Current Election

States which are “Tossup” but are accompanied with a checkmark may be key. 

We may see same-party outcomes—U.S. President and U.S. Senate—in potentially all of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin … as voting citizens may opt to align their votes for the same given party.

Those five states are all currently in the column for the Democrats. Two such states—Arizona [Kyrsten Sinema] and Michigan [Debbie Stabenow]—who are retiring. 

The following is a list with the probable order for each major party. The Republicans enter this race with 49 seats and have a good-as-guaranteed pickup for a 50th seat with flipping West Virginia. In percentage-points margins, their 51st seat would likely be Montana. If Democrats hold the U.S. Senate, their 50th seat would also likely be Montana. I think the Big Sky State will be the Tipping-Point State/Seat for the 2024 U.S. Senate.