Progressives Chat: Coming Up: U.S. Governors

2018 Gubernatorial Elections: With a national shift for the Democrats, these are the competitive states.

The 2018 midterm elections includes 36 gubernatorial elections. So, 72 percent of the nation’s states will have governor races. From that, 9 of the Top 10 populous states are on the schedule. The exception is North Carolina, on the schedule in leap/presidential years, and a Democratic pickup in 2016. The Democrats have 3 of the other Top 10: California, New York, and Pennsylvania. For the 14 states not on the schedule, they are equally 7 each in the Republican and Democratic columns. (Republicans have 33 to the 16 governorships with the Democrats.) On the maps, that *7 is noted by 270 to Win.

If 2018 turns out to be a national wave of a midterm elections for the Democrats, off Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump, that national wave is not going to avoid flipping a number of Republican-held governorships to Democratic. It wouldn’t surprise me, for example, if all six of Trump’s 2016 Republican pickup states—Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—end up, in January 2019, with Democratic governors. (Pennsylvania delivered a Democratic pickup on that count in 2014 with Tom Wolf.)

The above map leaves beige (which would normally be yellow) for states in position to potentially flip. Alaska is independent and favored to flip Republican. But, the Democrats, after winning a 2017 pickup of New Jersey, have 16 and need a net gain of +10 to win over a new majority.

If the 2018 Democrats succeed, here is my estimated order of likely flips:

(17) Illinois

(18) New Mexico

(19) Michigan

(20) Maine

(21) Nevada

(22) Florida

(23) Wisconsin

(24) Ohio

(25) Iowa

(26) Georgia — Tipping Point State

(27) Kansas

(28) Arizona
(29) Oklahoma

For No. 30, that is between Tennessee and Maryland; but, they are highly likely to end up Republican holds. For the 2018 Democrats to flip one or both of them, they would likely have to have a midterm elections in which the Republicans are being more thoroughly repudiated.

Since following the 1994 midterm elections, when Republicans (off Democratic incumbent U.S. president Bill Clinton) flipped new majorities of the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and the nation’s governorships, the party which has had the majority in the U.S. House also held the majority of the nation’s governorships. The latest polls suggest that pattern will get broken; that the Democrats will not flip a sufficient number. But, it is a pattern effective since 1995. And, depending on the next month or so, and Election Night, it could end up held.

In 2014, the Republicans won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. Governors, by +4.09. The result: Republicans 50.33% vs. Democrats 46.24%.

Here was the list, in descending order, by their margins (* party pickup):

2014 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN (24)
• Tennessee (Bill Haslam, term-limited) +47.47
• Nevada (Brian Sandoval, term-limited) +46.70
• South Dakota (Dennis Daugaard, term-limited) +45.04
• Ohio (John Kasich, term-limited) +33.61
• Wyoming (Matt Mead, term-limited) +32.14
• Alabama (Robert J. Bentley, resigned; 2018 nominee: Kay Ivey) +27.32
• Iowa (Terry Branstadt, in President Trump’s administration; 2018 nominee: Kim Reynolds) +21.72
• Texas (Greg Abbott) +20.37
• Nebraska (Pete Ricketts) +17.92
• Oklahoma (Mary Fallin, term-limited) +14.80
• South Carolina (Nikki Haley, in President Trump’s administration; 2018 nominee; Harry McMaster) +14.48
• New Mexico (Susana Martinez, term-limited) +14.44
• Idaho (Butch Otter, term-limited) +13.97
• Arizona (Doug Ducey) +11.80
• * Arkansas (Asa Hutchison) +11.25
• Georgia (Nathan Deal, term-limited) +7.86
• Wisconsin (Scott Walker) +5.67
• Maine (Paul LePage, term-limited) +4.81

[U.S. Popular Vote: +4.09]

• (26) Michigan (Rick Snyder, term-limited) +4.06 — Tipping Point!

• (27) * Illinois (Bruce Rauner) +3.91
• (28) * Maryland (Larry Hogan) +3.78
• (29) Kansas (Sam Brownback, in Trump’s administration; 2018 nominee: Kris Kobach) +3.69
• (30) * Massachusetts (Charlie Baker) +1.86
• (31) Florida (Rick Scott, term-limited) +1.07

2016 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN (02) — Two-Year Term
• * Vermont (Phil Scott) +8.74
• * New Hampshire (Chris Sununu) +2.27

2014 GOVERNOR — INDEPENDENT (01)
• * Alaska (Bill Walker) +2.22

2014 GOVERNOR — DEMOCRATIC (09)
• California (Jerry Brown, term-limited) +19.94
• New York (Andrew Cuomo) +13.95
• Hawaii (David Ige) +12.37
• * Pennsylvania (Tom Wolf) +9.86
• Minnesota (Mark Dayton, term-limited) +5.56
• Oregon (Kate Brown) +4.76
• * Rhode Island (Gina Raimondo) +4.46
• Colorado (John Hickenlooper, term-limited) +3.35
• Connecticut (Dan Malloy, not running; 2018 nominee: Ned Lamont) +2.57

The last three gubernatorial majorities pickups were in 1994 (Republican, off Democratic president Bill Clinton); 2006 (Democratic, off Republican president George W. Bush); and 2010 (Republican, off Democratic president Barack Obama). The national shifts in those elections, compared four years earlier, were:

• 1990 to 1994 Shift: R+17.12 divided by +11 = 1.55 seat gains with each nationally shifted percentage point
• 2002 to 2006 Shift: D+11.16 divided by +6 = 1.86 seat gains with each nationally shifted percentage point
• 2006 to 2010 Shift: R+6.84 divided by +6 = 1.14 seat gains with each nationally shifted percentage point

It is not easy to nail down. But, I figure, taking averages from those three, about +1.51 governorships may be gained with each nationally shifted percentage point for the Democrats. (It may be a little less.)

Here is a guide:

The National Margin (after –04.09) = Yielded Pickups (increments +xx.09 x 1.51 avg.)

• R+3 = +1 [seat gains]
• R+2 = +2 to +3
• R+1 = +4
• D+0 = +5 to +6
• D+1 = +7
• D+2 = +8 to +9
• D+3 = +10 — Tipping Point!
• D+4 = +11 to +12
• D+5 = +13
• D+6 = +14 to +15

That is based on the U.S. House polls showing a potential 2016-to-2018 national shift of around +10, for the Democrats, and if U.S. Governors, based on their 2014 U.S. Popular Vote, were to also shift as much as +10 in the direction of the Democrats.

While I have +3 as the tipping point, in my estimate, I keep in mind that the number of governorships gained with each nationally shifted percentage point may be more like +1.33. So, a national margin of +4 would be even more assured the 2018 Democrats would win over a new majority of the nation’s governorships?

It is really strange to see any polls, even now, tell me only the states listed between Nos. 17 to 20 are poised to flip—leaving the rest as tossups—when the point of a midterm elections wave is that it does not pertain to only one level of office. (Some have even Nos. 19 and 20 as tossups.)

It is also not sensible to think that Democrats may not flip beyond +4 when there is a constant showing that Republican-held states, particularly those that were 2014 Republican holds, are apparently underperforming their 2014-to-2018 margins in the polls. (Tennessee, in particular, and with connection to its open U.S. Senate election, is a conspicuous underperformance for Republicans. Its governorship will not be won, by a 2018 Republican, with that 2014 margin of +47.47.)

Another Perspective

With 9 of the Top 10 populous states on the schedule, the 2014-to-2018 margins shifts in California, Texas, Florida (if it gets flipped), New York, Illinois (which will get flipped), Pennsylvania, Ohio (even if it doesn't get flipped), Georgia (even if it doesn’t get flipped), and Michigan (which will get flipped) will go in the direction of the Democrats.

You can take that to nearly all of the populous states which rank between Nos. 11 to 20, which also have on the schedule: Arizona, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. These Democratic shifts were also applicable to both Nos. 11 and 12 New Jersey and Virginia in 2017. (That is, the 2013-to-2017 margins shift from those states—with New Jersey having flipped from 2013 Republican to 2017 Democratic.) Three such Top 20 populous states—Washington, Indiana, and Missouri—are also not on the schedule for 2018. (Their elections are in leap/presidential years.) So, with 14 of the Top 20 populous states scheduled for 2018, just two of have a strong chance to shift more Republican: Massachusetts and Maryland. And those states are in that position because they were 2014 Republican pickups whose incumbent governors, Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan, are polling as popular. (By the way: In between 66 and 70 percent of the nation’s people reside in a Top 20 state.)

It is highly likely the Democrats will win a 2018 pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. Governor. One reason, in addition to Republican-held states underperforming, is that I would anticipate the 2014 Democratic-held states, which will end up 2018 Democratic holds, which would be all of them, will overperform their 2014-to-2018 margins. Another reason is that I am positive that just five of states would shift in the direction of the Republicans: Alaska, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont. And two of them, Idaho and Nebraska, are possible. Just for cover, I can go with two more. (Whichever two.) So, from the 36 scheduled, only between 15 to 25 percent states are in position to shift more Republican.

After the 1994 Republican, 2006 Democratic, and 2010 Republican majority pickups of governorships, they all ended up with at least 6 to the Top 10 in their column (listed in order of their electoral votes from the presidential election two years earlier):

1994 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN MAJORITY PICKUP

• California

• * New York
• * Texas
• * Pennsylvania
• Illinois
• Ohio
• Michigan
[New Jersey — 1993 Republican pickup]

2006 GOVERNOR — DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY PICKUP

• * New York
• Illinois
• Pennsylvania
• *Ohio
• Michigan
[New Jersey]

2010 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN MAJORITY PICKUP

• Texas
• Florida
• * Pennsylvania
• * Ohio
• * Michigan
[* New Jersey — 2009 Republican pickup]
• Georgia

Will the 2018 Democrats win a new majority of the nation’s governorships?

At this time, I am not predicting. In fact, I don’t feel the need to predict. This also has nothing to do with how I, or anyone else reading Progressives Chat, may vote in November. The point of the prior blog entry topics, “Coming Up: U.S. House” and “Coming Up: U.S. Senate,” and now concluding with “Coming Up: U.S. Governors,” is to be able to get a good sense of what may come.