Coming Up: U.S. House

The general election for the 2018 midterm elections are now eight weeks away.

I wrote about the Democrats needing to win the U.S. House (that is U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House) by +7 in percentage points margin here: Democrats Magic Number: +7.

Over the last week, Real Clear Politics has updated its “Generic Congressional Vote.” This is for U.S. House. The Democrats, in position to flip the U.S. House, are leading by, from these three reports (between August 15 to September 4,, 2018), +9.5 +8.3, and +7.8 percentage points. That is an average of +8.53. Or, if you will, Democratic +8.53.

Looking at those poll numbers, I find it funny that Rasmussen Reports tends to skew Republican, and has had that reputation for over 10 years, and that three of those listed conduced polls during Labor Day weekend (and two apparently on Labor Day, which was September 3, 2018).

I will go by the average reported (by those three): +8.53.

Since the historical number of seats gained with each nationally shifted percentage point (over the midterms of 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010) has been +3.59—and that I take into account the 2016 Democrats lost the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by –1.08 (it was 49.11% for the Republicans; 48.03% for the Democrats)—here is the math:

• (+1.08) + 8.53 = 9.61 national shift (from 2016)
• 3.59 x 9.61 = +34 seat gains (for the Democrats)

This Friday: “Coming Up: U.S. Senate.”