Coming Up: U.S. Senate

This past Monday [September 10, 2018], I wrote the blog entry “Coming Up: U.S. House.” Now, here is a focus on the U.S. Senate. (The above is from Real Clear Politics, update from this past Saturday, September 8, 2018, on the apparent status.)

I did my own research of looking into the average number of seats gained with each nationally shifted percentage point from the midterm elections which flipped the U.S. Senate and governorships to the White House opposition party. It is not worth mentioning in detail. Typically between +1 to +1.5 seats are gained with each nationally shifted percentage point. 

On the U.S. Senate schedule, for 2018, is Senate Class #01. They were last on the schedule in 2012, when then-Democratic incumbent U.S. president Barack Obama won re-election. The Democrats, heading into that election with 53 seats, won a net gain of +2, for 55 seats. 

Here is a reminder (* is a pickup for the party):

2012 U.S. SENATE — DEMOCRATIC HOLD [55]

• Republican 42.36%
• Democratic 54.18% (Margin: +11.82; Net Gains: +2)

2012 U.S. SENATE — DEMOCRATIC
• Vermont (Bernie Sanders) +46.17
• New York (Kirsten Gillibrand) +45.86
• Delaware (Tom Carper) +37.47
• Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar) +34.70
• Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse) +29.84
• Maryland (Ben Cardin) +29.65
• Hawaii (Mazie Hirono) +25.20
• California (Dianne Feinstein) +25.04
• West Virginia (Joe Manchin) +24.10
• * Maine (Angus King) +22.15
• Washington (Maria Cantwell) +20.90
• Michigan (Debbie Stabenow) +20.82
• New Jersey (Robert Menendez) +19.45
• Missouri (Claire McCaskill) +15.70
• Florida (Bill Nelson) +13.00
— [U.S. Popular Vote: +11.82] —
• Connecticut (Chris Murphy) +11.75
• Pennsylvania (Bob Casey) +9.10
• * Massachusetts (Elizabeth Warren) +7.55
• Ohio (Sherrod Brown) +6.00
• Virginia (Tim Kaine) +5.91
• (51) * Indiana (Joe Donnelly) +5.73 — Tipping Point!
• (51) New Mexico (Martin Heinrich) +5.73 — Tipping Point!
• (53) Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin) +5.55
• (54) Montana (Jon Tester) +3.72
• (55) North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp) +0.90

2012 U.S. SENATE — REPUBLICAN
• Wyoming (John Barrasso) +54.00
• Utah (Orrin Hatch, retiring) +35.33
• Tennessee (Bob Corker, retiring) +34.48
• Mississippi (Roger Wicker) +16.61
• Texas (Ted Cruz) +15.84
• * Nebraska (Deb Fischer) +15.54
• Arizona (Jeff Flake, retiring) +2.98
• Nevada (Dean Heller) +1.16

Under the premise of a 2018 majority pickup of the U.S. Senate for the Democratic Party, there are some things to keep in mind. 

In 2016, California began its system of advancing to the general election the two candidates who received the most votes. This is without regard for party affiliation. So, in 2018 California, just as it was in 2016, the two general-election nominees come from the same party. So, I wouldn’t adhere to assuming a past pattern of expecting the 2018 Democrats to have to increase their 2012 U.S. Popular Vote margin by an additional two or three points.

The last three midterm elections in which the U.S. Senate flipped to the White House opposition party were: 1994 Republican (off Democratic president Bill Clinton), 2006 Democratic (off Republican president George W. Bush), and 2014 Republican (off Democratic president Barack Obama). They all have the following in common: Heading into the elections as the minority party, the 1994 and 2014 Republicans and the 2006 Democrats did not lose a single party-held seat.

If the 2018 Democrats flip the U.S. Senate, my guess is about 17 to 20 will overperform their 2012 margins. I’m estimating between 70 to 80 percent of party-held seats will overperform. Among the re-nominated Democratic U.S. senators likely to underperform: Missouri’s Claire McCaskill, New Jersey’s Bob Mendendez, and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin. North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp has nearly nowhere to go to decline if she is to pull off winning re-election. But, for a little while now, Florida’s Bill Nelson, who won by over +1 million raw votes, is in a tossup against the state’s current governor, Rick Scott.

If the 2018 Democrats flip the U.S. Senate, nearly all the 2012 Republican-held seats would underperform. Although I have sensed Utah’s Mitt Romney can overperform retiring incumbent Orrin Hatch’s 2012 margin, a 2018 Romney was recently polled at +26, down from Hatch’s +35.33. In 2012, as the Republican presidential nominee, Romney carried Utah by +47.88 percentage points.

One of these Republican-held states’ seats ranks in the Top 10 for population: Texas. In 2012, Ted Cruz (+15.84), who won the Lone Star State +0.06 above presidential nominee Mitt Romney (+15.78), is severely underperforming in the polls. That race is rated between a tossup and Lean Republican hold. For Top 20 populous states Arizona and Tennessee, the former is rated a Democratic pickup (for Kyrsten Sinema) while the latter is polling with a conspicuous Democratic shift. Tennessee’s retiring Republican incumbent Bob Corker (whose 2012 re-election margin was +34.48 to Mitt Romney’s +20.38) is followed by a race between would-be Republican successor and congresswoman Marsha Blackburn vs. Democratic nominee and former governor Phil Bredesen. It is rated a tossup. Put into a 2012-to-2018 perspective: Texas’s Ted Cruz, who won by over +1.2 million votes, and Tennessee’s Bob Corker, who won by over 800,000 votes, combined for +2 million votes vs. the tossup status of Florida Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson’s +1 million.

It is unrealistic to perceive a national 2012-to-2018 shift for U.S. Senate—and on the watch of Republican incumbent president Donald Trump—in the direction of the Republicans. (Meaning, the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. Senate.) It will likely be a 2018 Democratic shift. When you put this all together, it is not difficult to imagine the 2012 Democrats shifting sufficiently to also yield the pickups of the two seats they need to flip for a new majority. As of September 14, 2018, I would estimate the U.S. Senate is a tossup. But, the advantage is with a Lean Democratic pickup. Since the midterm elections of 1946, when Republicans won majority pickups of both houses of Congress, it was only in 2010 that the U.S. Senate did not flip with the U.S. House. 

Below is the estimated map should the 2018 Democrats succeed in winning a majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate. Light blue: Democratic pickup. Brown, which would normally be yellow, are apparent tossups.

UPDATE, 09.16.2018, @ 01:15 p.m. ET:

• On Monday: “Jimmy Dore Interviews Tulsi Gabbard.”

• Upcoming (Not Scheduled): “Coming Up: Governors.”