Over the last week or so, and with much attention (even by corporate “news” media) poll reports have Iowa and New Hampshire moving more toward Bernie Sanders.
I think the nomination will go to either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders. (At this point, most do.) But, between writing this and its publishing date (I had to do some late-night editing), it looks like the 2020 Democratic nomination will go to Bernie Sanders.
Recommended reports:
• Amid Social Security Fight, Joe Biden Is Losing Ground Among Middle-Aged and Older Voters
• Bernie Sanders grabs lead in California presidential primary poll
I do want to run scenarios. (This is why there are two maps.)
For the nomination to go to Joe Biden, I think he would win under similar outcomes as 2016 Hillary Clinton. This keeps in mind that I am going by official record. (The 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were rigged. I’m not saying the nomination would be rigged for Biden. I am not saying it won’t be. But, the Democratic Party Establishment does not want Bernie. No question! Much of this is about, as the blog’s title mentions, momentum and potential if the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ends up going to Bernie Sanders.)
All 50 states have been participating in the Democratic (1976) and Republican (1980) presidential primaries for a period of a good 40 years. There isn’t a guarantee of citing particular states as if they are bellwethers to easily predict the nomination.
When it comes to the two states which are scheduled first for contests, eventual Democratic nominees have won more in Iowa than in New Hampshire. For the Republicans, it was the opposite. Exceptions on the Democratic side were 1988 Michael Dukakis (who won New Hampshire but not Iowa) and 1992 Bill Clinton (who won neither; Iowa was carried by home-state son Tom Harkin, and other candidates essentially conceded the state to the then-U.S. senator; and Clinton came in second in New Hampshire). Exceptions on the Republican side were 1996 Bob Dole and 2000 George W. Bush (winners in Iowa but not New Hampshire).
This is keeping in mind eventual general-election nominees trying to win a first-term election to the presidency of the United States.
The 2020 Democratic Party Establishment does not want Bernie Sanders to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Strategically, based on history, they would like Joe Biden to win Iowa and leave New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders.
If Bernie Sanders wins both—and there are stirrings he may also win the third state on the schedule, Nevada—that will highly likely change the trajectory in the fourth scheduled state, South Carolina. They are the caucus (Iowa and Nevada) primary (New Hampshire and South Carolina) states on the schedule in February prior to Super Tuesday, which will be March 3.
I would anticipate, under such circumstances, Joe Biden’s polling numbers advantage to shift away from him and toward Sanders. (Side note: In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the Palmetto State by +47.22 percentage points. Over the last year or so, there have been Democratic insiders saying they figure the demographics of South Carolina will make it a primaries bellwether for 2020. In 2016, it voted 35 points more for Hillary than the rest of the nation’s Democratic presidential primaries voters. 1976 Jimmy Carter, 1984 Walter Mondale, 1988 Michael Dukakis, and 2004 John Kerry—who carried 46 of 50 states—won their general-election nominations without South Carolina. So, even with the demographics being talked up, I am not convinced South Carolina is key. And, in presidential elections, based on 2016 results, Democrats have to carry at least 31 states to be able to also carry South Carolina. They haven’t won over 30 states since Bill Clinton’s two terms from the 1990s. The last Democratic president to carry South Carolina was 1976 Jimmy Carter.)
In 2016, Donald Trump, en route to the Republican nomination, won three-for-four in as many states at the front of the schedule. I saw CNN cover it with John King mentioning that there hadn’t been a Republican who pulled that off and not gone on to win his party’s nomination. But, on the Democratic side, 1984 Walter Mondale lost three of the first four to rival Gary Hart. Mondale ended up with the nomination, with fewer carried states than Hart, by winning in a way like the game of Monopoly—scoring prestige properties with seven of the nation’s Top 10 populous states.
Going by the official record, Hillary Clinton won nine of the Top 10—leaving the upset in my home state Michigan, on March 8, 2016, to go to Bernie Sanders by +1.42 percentage points while Hillary won nationally by +12.06.
Take a look at the above map.
Michigan is colored in solid blue. The rest of the blues were the states won by Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries. (Again—official record.)
If Joe Biden wins the nomination, I would say he wins the majority of the Top 10 populous states. Same with the rest making up the Top 20. Just over 50 percent of the nation live in a Top 10 state. Through No. 20—I am really getting at states which are allocated with double-digit electoral votes for presidential elections (which includes No. 21)—are where approximately 70 percent of the nation’s citizens reside.
If the nomination is won by Bernie Sanders, he will win a good number of pickups where they really add up. This includes Top 10 populous states. California has been recently polling for Bernie Sanders. (2016 margin: Hillary +7.03.) If he wins there, he will also win over states in the Rust Belt. I would start with Illinois. (2016 margin: Hillary +1.95.) If both California and Illinois go to Bernie, I don’t doubt he would win Michigan by an increased margin (compared to 2016). But, it would also mean looking to him winning in Ohio and/or Pennsylvania. And this would involve his birth state New York. And if it is happening on the northern side of the map, it has to also be happening on the southern half. Since the modern system on the primaries, no general-election nominee avoided carrying at least one state in the south.
To consider the Top 10 states, nine of which appear on the above map in yellow, I think a general-election nominee Bernie Sanders will have won with at least five of them. (Really—I think Bernie Sanders would carry at least seven.) Joe Biden’s best bets are Texas and Georgia. Bernie Sanders’s best bets are Michigan with California and Illinois. And I think the other five—Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina—are going to be a part of the trajectory of the outcomes from February, in early-March, and going forward.
Consider the schedule:
• March 3 [Super Tuesday]: California, Texas, and North Carolina
• March 10: Michigan
• March 17: Florida, Illinois, and Ohio
• March 24: Georgia
• April 28: New York and Pennsylvania
Again—If the nomination goes to Joe Biden, he will likely win the majority of these Top 10 populous states. If the nomination goes to Bernie Sanders, he will likely win the majority of the Top 10 populous states.
In the 2008 Democratic presidential pickup year for Barack Obama, he actually won fewer than half. Setting aside Florida and Michigan (which violated DNC scheduling rules), Hillary Clinton won six of the eight—leaving Obama to win in Georgia and his home state Illinois.
Now, if I could be told that Bernie Sanders wins the nomination, for fact, and I can give him at least ten more states to go along with the 22 he won in 2016, I would start with the Top 10. I would have him win no less seven. (A part of how this would happen is, unlike in 2016, a 2020 Bernie Sanders wins over states’s more and/or most populous counties—like Wayne County, Michigan; Cook County, Illinois; Los Angeles County, California. That calls for more details but, alas, I won’t be get into it. But, if he does end up winning the nomination, he will have to win along that path.) Where Sanders wins matters. I would want him to win pickups in California, of course, and at least one in the South (although I want both, North Carolina was closer than Florida in 2016), and four in the Rust Belt (within reach, in 2016, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York). I would really want Sanders to get an eighth, with Florida, because that is a state where growing momentum with demographic-friendly citizens could make that state feasible for him to win in the primaries. And, outside the Top 10, the Rust Belt includes No. 11-ranked New Jersey, which he lost in 2016 by nearly –27 percentage points (it was held late, on June 7), and in which he is lately polling in position to very possibly win it over.
So, with a late-date schedule indicated with California, let us consider the 2016 margins from Top 10 populous states (again—official record):
• Michigan — Bernie Sanders +1.42
• Illinois — Hillary Clinton +1.95
• California (June 7) — Hillary Clinton +7.03
— [U.S. Popular Vote — Hillary Clinton +12.06] —
• Pennsylvania — Hillary Clinton +12.08
• Ohio — Hillary Clinton +12.99
• North Carolina — Hillary Clinton +13.64
• New York — Hillary Clinton +15.92
• Florida — Hillary Clinton +31.06
• Texas — Hillary Clinton +32.00
• Georgia — Hillary Clinton +43.10
You go by that list, and it looks like Georgia, Texas, and Florida would be out of reach. But, a lot of this will depend on demographics breakdowns and for how these human beings (who are not merely in demographic categories) will handle their voting.
The 2016 entrance and exit polls reported, in age groups, that 17–29 voters nationally gave Bernie Sanders about 70 percent. Same for Hillary Clinton with 65+ voters. The in-between groups—those 30–44 (Bernie) and 45–64 (Hillary)—also split but with less severity in margins.
If Bernie wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada—and if he goes on to win the nomination—that will be made possible with 45–64 voters possibly flipping to him and 65+ voters reducing their Hillary-to-Biden margins to mathematically shift in the direction of Bernie.
This would also have a baring on, say, Black voters. Bernie won Blacks 17–29 with more than 50 percent of their support. His terrible numbers, overall with Blacks, were with the two oldest groups having performed rock-solid for Hillary. (She won much of the South with the overall Black votes times the size of their vote statewide. Meaning, she reached 50 percent or above to carry a given state just with that voting demographic.)
Bernie is polling ahead of Biden with Hispanics. So, if he ends up with the nomination, I would imagine he flips, say, between four to six of those Top 10 states and also wins a pickup in not only Nevada but also New Mexico. In general elections, New Mexico has over 40 percent its population Hispanic. So, if the trajectory is Bernie ending up winning the nomination, and doing so decisively, and given the fact that state was late on the schedule in 2016, and that Hillary Clinton carried it by just +3.06 percentage points, New Mexico would be ripe to go for Bernie Sanders.
I also look at Top 20 populous states Arizona, Massachusetts, and Missouri. And I also keep in mind a state not in Bernie Sanders’s 2016 column which carried for Hillary Clinton by less than +5 points.
And, obviously, this is going to include a pickup of No. 30-ranked Iowa. That state’s decision, with flipped coin tosses, was a joke in 2016.
If Bernie Sanders wins the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucus, and later wins the party’s presidential nomination, then Iowa goes on the following list with others mentioned above.
• Iowa — Hillary Clinton +0.25
• Missouri — Hillary Clinton +0.25
• Kentucky — Hillary Clinton +0.43
• Massachusetts — Hillary Clinton +1.40
• South Dakota (June 7) — Hillary Clinton +2.06
• New Mexico (June 7) — Hillary Clinton +3.06
• Nevada — Hillary Clinton +5.35
• Connecticut — Hillary Clinton +5.38
— [U.S. Popular Vote — Hillary Clinton +12.06] —
• Arizona — Hillary Clinton +14.90
• New Jersey (June 7) — Hillary Clinton +26.64
Those states, from both lists, which carried for Hillary Clinton by around five points or less were reflective of what the entrance and exit polls said about the voting of the age groups. The older half—those 45–64 and 65+—combined for approximately 60 to 62 percent the size of the vote nationwide and, from what I remember, in nearly every state polled. The younger half—those 17–29 and 30–44—combined for approximately 38 to 40 percent the size of the vote nationwide and state after state. In general elections, the older half are usually no greater than 55 percent. So, in 2016, older voters out-voted younger voters. That is a lesson young people need to learn. Show up—or very possibly get out-voted with a result you may not want. For people who really want Bernie Sanders nominated in 2020, especially applicable to those 17–29 or 30–44, they cannot see this repeated.
The below map is an estimate—not scientific—to show where a nominee Bernie Sanders may prevail with the 2020 Democratic nomination for president of the United States. All in solid blue (including Top 10 state Michigan) were in the 2016 column for Sanders. Those in light blue are 2016-to-2020 pickups. Those in yellow are ones speak to potential of even further pickups. And you get a good idea why and how this can unfold quite dramatically. Numerous of the modern-day presidential nominees carried at least 30 or more states in their primaries. It has a way of really adding up.
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