Next In Line

The 2024 re-election campaign for United States president Joe Biden has a new target state: North Carolina. (Source: Biden looks to put North Carolina on ’24 map.)

The Tar Heel State is on the radar for the 2024 Democrats, with the party and the administration wanting to hold onto the presidency, for some reasons which are easy to understand.

#01. The 2024 Democrats, wanting to win, are taking the pro-active position to expand the map.

#02. North Carolina is the best state for easiest reach.

Typically what happens in a U.S. presidential election in which we get a party switch, as occurred in both 2016 (Republican pickup for Donald Trump) and 2020 (Democratic pickup for Joe Biden), is that the map unfolds with a pickup-winning party carrying everything from their column in the previous cycle (which said party lost) before winning pickups of involved, applicable states (and, if also applicable, any congressional districts like with the 2nd congressional districts in each of 2016 Maine and 2020 Nebraska). So, 2016 Donald Trump carried everything, as a starting point, which were in the 2012 Republican column for Mitt Romney. That 2020 Joe Biden carried everything, as a starting point, which were in the 2016 Democratic column for Hillary Clinton. 

This is logical. If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup of the presidency, North Carolina—which held in the 2020 GOP column for Trump—carries as a Republican hold before that given GOP presidential pickup winner wins pickups from involved, applicable states to get the map to reach 270.

A part of what makes North Carolina attractive for the 2024 Democrats is this: If there is anything on the map for the 2020 Republicans (unseated Trump) which does not hold, because of having flipped to the Democrats, the Democrats will prevail. This occurred, as examples, with 1996 re-elected Democrat Bill Clinton as losing Republican challenger Bob Dole failed to hold Arizona and Florida (both which were in the 1992 Republican column for unseated incumbent George Bush); also with 2004 re-elected Republican George W. Bush as losing Democratic challenger John Kerry failed to hold Iowa and New Mexico (both which were in the 2000 Democratic column for losing nominee and then-U.S. vice president Al Gore).

North Carolina is the easiest reach for this reason: Over the last four presidential election cycles—2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—just three states were carried every time: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. North Carolina, for its reliability record, got it “wrong” in 2012 (a Republican pickup for losing nominee Romney) and 2020 (a Republican hold for unseated Trump). In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected having carried 26 states. (That was a decline from 28 states, in 2008, which included a then-Democratic pickup of North Carolina.) In 2020, Biden won his party switch of the presidency with having carried 25 states. When looking at the list of carried states, and ranking all by their percentage-points margins (and in descending order),  and then looking at what did not carry: the next state in line—both times—was North Carolina. It was 2012 Obama’s No. 27 best-performed state. It was 2020 Biden’s No. 26 best-performed state. A 2012 Obama was re-elected with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +3.86 percentage points. (Result: Obama 51.01% vs. Romney 47.15%.) A 2020 Biden prevailed in the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 percentage points. (Result: Biden 51.26% vs. Trump 46.80%.) When you round off those margins to whole numbers, you can say they won the U.S. Popular Vote by +4. Each percentage point by which a presidential winner carries the U.S. Popular Vote typically yields carriage of one more state. The Democrats, as apparent with 2012 Obama and 2020 Biden, need to nowadays win nationally by +5 to carry North Carolina. That is, basically, an outcome of 51-vs.-46 or 52-vs.-47 percent. 

This is achievable due to a pattern established since 1992. Winning Democrats have averaged +5.93 percentage points in the U.S. Popular Vote. (Although 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump did not win over the U.S. Popular Vote, adjusted margins for both on the positive side—and dealing with a whole number—would have reached +2. A 2004 Bush won by +2.46.)

In 2018, I wrote about the nation’s leading bellwether states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—here: Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I made this prediction: “I am predicting that the winner of the 2020 United States presidential election will carry the Rust Belt trio of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.”

That did happen.

In this current year, 2023, I will make this prediction for Election 2024: The winning party—which also means candidate (incumbent or otherwise)—will carry all four of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin…and, yes, North Carolina.

That will likely happen.

It will likely happen, in part, because no past election’s electoral map has ever been duplicated. For example: 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump both carried 30 states. Differences: Carried by 2000 Bush (but not 2016 Trump): Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Carried by 2016 Trump (but not 2000 Bush): Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (as well as Maine’s 2nd Congressional District).

So…

✓ Republican pickup of the presidency? Flip the trio from the Rust Belt. 

✓ Democratic hold of the presidency? Flip the Tar Heel State.

I categorize Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as the nation’s Leading Bellwether States.

I now categorize North Carolina as the nation’s Sleeper Bellwether State.

Supporting Third-Party Candidacies

I support running for office, in general, and including for the presidency of the United States, by persons outside the two major U.S. political parties.

I support Cornel West’s decision to run outside the two major political parties.

A person who runs outside the two major political parties, and what votes he receives, do not belong to either of the two major political parties.

Since 2000—a Republican pickup of the presidency to George W. Bush (in an election year in which the nation had to elect a new president because the incumbent, Democrat Bill Clinton, was term-limited)—the Democrats have created and pushed a narrative to excuse their losses. 

The Democratic Party’s election-loss excuses tend to more often get expressed in election cycles which switch the presidency to the column of the Republican Party. And the narrative tends to be that the Democratic Party did not earn their loss. The excuse is that a candidate outside the two major political parties earned votes that belong to the Democratic Party.

This Democratic Party narrative was pedaled in 2000 and in 2016. It was used against Green Party nominees Ralph Nader and Jill Stein. This was done with the intent to create a belief in Loyal Democrats—or those more likely to generally vote for the Democrats before they would vote for the Republicans—to buy into, to keep accepting, willful failures by the Democratic Party. To get people who are willing to listen—and are willing to believe; to not question; to not analyze—to excuse and continue to support the Democratic Party.

A part of this is also designed to get people who are Loyal Democrats, or would vote Democrat before they would vote Republican, to feel they and this nation need the Democrats; rather than it being the Democratic Party who should be needing these citizens and their votes.

I see a part of this, which also includes voter-shaming and voter-bullying, to be a form of psychological warfare (or, as some label it, a psyop).

The Democratic Party is a scam operation. 

The Democratic Party is full of con artists.

I reject the Democratic Party. 

I support the decisions of Ralph Nader, Jill Stein, and Cornel West—and anyone else I should name—to run outside not just the Republican Party but especially the Democratic Party.

2023 Summer Vacation Break, Week #02

This is the second week of this 2023 Summer Break. 

There will be no specific topic for this week.

Next Monday, July 17, 2023 will mark a return with a new blog topic.

2023 Summer Vacation Break, Week #01

Tuesday, July 4, 2023 is Independence Day.

I wish for everyone a safe and pleasant Fourth of July.

I will be taking this, and next, week as a “Vacation Break”—with good timing, for the Summer, to take a break from having to post a specific topic.

Return to regular topics will be scheduled for Monday, July 17, 2023.

Flashback 1978: Actor Bob Crane Murdered

This week marks the 45-year anniversary of the murder of television star Bob Crane. 

(Side note: The calendar from 1978 is also the same here in 2023. That this blog topic’s publishing date was also on a Monday in 1978.)

Bob Crane, born July 13, 1928, in Waterbury, Connecticut, was previously a radio personality before he became an actor. 

Crane was the leading man on the popular CBS comedy series Hogan’s Heroes. The World War II-based sitcom, set in Nazi Germany, was broadcast for six seasons from 1965 to 1971. The series received multiple Emmy nominations. Costar Werner Klemperer (1920–2000) won two Emmys, out of five nominations, for supporting actor. Crane was twice nominated for lead actor.

After the series ended, Crane’s career went into decline. He made attempts for a career comeback, including The Bob Crane Show, a short-lived midseason comedy series broadcast during the 1974–75 television season, on NBC. (It premiered in March 1975 and was done by June.) Numerous of his appearances were either in television films or guest performances on television series. Crane’s last screen role, in 1978, was as a guest star in an episode from the premiere season of ABC’s The Love Boat.

Crane took to the road. He performed dinner theater. He did this until his death at age 49.

On [Thursday,] June 29, 1978, Bob Crane—while on tour starring in Beginner’s Luck—was found dead in his Scottsdale, Arizona motel room. He was murdered. Bludgeoned to death. 

The following videos give attention to Crane’s ugly end. The first was his last interview. The second was a television-news report on his demise. The third, published to YouTube a few years ago (and given an age-restricted branding) is about the case. (That video, which is titled “Murder in Scottsdale The Death of Bob Crane,” on the channel by Anil Roberts, cannot be accessed within having been embedded in this blog entry.) That third video, much about the investigation, touches on Crane’s private life. He was a sex addict (who filmed some of his encounters). That he kept company with the person suspected of being his killer, John Carpenter (1928–1998), who was prosecuted but acquitted in 1994. (Much of this is given, er, focus in Paul Schrader’s 2002 film Auto Focus, starring Greg Kinnear as Crane and Willem Dafoe as Carpenter.)

For anyone who well-remembers this period which marked the end for this actor, it is certainly disturbing. His life was. More than likely, he was. (Recommended read from a piece published in April 2023: Inside The Gruesome Murder Of Bob Crane, The ‘Hogan’s Heroes’ Star Who Was Beat To Death In 1978.)

I came across an interview, circa-late-1980s, with Werner Klemperer. (It is on YouTube. I watched it before writing this blog topic.) Klemperer was Tony-nominated in 1988 for a musical revival of Cabaret. In brief mentioning of Crane, a respectful Klemperer—who got along well with Crane—said that he thinks [thought] that it is one murder case which will never become solved.  

★☆★☆★

Flashback 1973: The Friends from 50 Years Ago

My favorite decade of motion pictures was the 1970s. A personal favorite of mine was released on the same day as this blog topic. On [Tuesday,] June 26, 1973, Paramount Pictures released The Friends of Eddie Coyle.

This film was directed by Peter Yates (1929–2011). As a director, he helmed 1968’s box-office smash Bullitt (which won a film-editing Oscar for Frank P. Keller in response to one of cinema’s most memorable chase scenes). Yates would go on to direct and land 1979 and 1983 Oscar nominations, in his respective category, for Best Picture nominees Breaking Away (which won Best Original Screenplay for Steve Tesich) and The Dresser.

The Friends of Eddie Coyle is based on the 1970 debut novel by George V. Higgins (1932–1999). Higgins was an author, attorney, columnist, and professor. The screenplay was adapted by Paul Monash (1917–2003), who also produced the film. Monash was an Emmy-winning writer, film and television producer, and he created ABC’s Peyton Place (brought to the small screen from the controversial 1956 novel by Grace Metalious, 1924–1964).

The film casts, in the title role, Robert Mitchum (1917–1997). He is surrounded by a supporting cast which includes Peter Boyle (1935–2006), Richard Jordan (1937–1993), Steven Keats (1945–1994), Alex Rocco (1936–2015), and Joe Santos (1931–2016).

The superb score is by a future Oscar- and Grammy-winner Dave Grusin. He, coincidentally, also counts June 26 as a memorable day—it his birthday; born in 1934; and he turns 89.

Set in Boston, Massachusetts, Eddie Coyle is a gun-runner. Everyone in his circle—his “Friends”—are cons. Whether they are running guns or robbing banks…the film has plenty of double-crosses and setups. They are a duplicitous and cutthroat lot.

The Friends of Eddie Coyle ranks as one of the best screen performances delivered by Robert Mitchum. He landed only one Oscar nomination in his 50-plus-year career as a legendary star. That was a 1945 supporting nomination for The Story of G.I. Joe. Had Mitchum received a lead nomination, this would have been the performance to single out. He is totally convincing as an aging but resilient criminal whose luck may be running out.

My favorite of the film’s supporting performances, with backing Mitchum, is by Steven Keats. The actor served in Vietnam and, sorry to say, committed suicide at age 49 three years before Mitchum’s death at age 79. Keats was the leading man in director Joan Micklin Silver’s 1975 [19th-to-20th] turn-of-the-century drama Hester Street, which landed an Oscar nomination for leading lady Carol Kane, and he received an Emmy nomination in 1977 for the NBC miniseries Seventh Avenue. (Coincidentally, Friends costars Peter Boyle and Richard Jordan were also in the 1977 Emmy hunt: Boyle, for playing disgraced U.S. senator Joseph McCarthy in NBC’s Tail Gunner Joe; and Jordan, who was nominated in the same category as Keats, for the NBC miniseries Captains and the Kings.)

The Friends of Eddie Coyle is among numerous of the 1970s Neo Noir genre of motion pictures. This film is a compelling crime drama. It is brilliant. 

(Side note: I also recommend 1975’s Night Moves, directed by Arthur Penn, and starring Gene Hackman as a private investigator. It is currently available on Criterion Channel’s streaming service. It recently was aired on Turner Classic Movies. According to Wikipedia, the film was released in New York, New York on June 11 and Los Angeles, California on July 2, 1975. Night Moves—costarring Jennifer Warren, Susan Clark, and early film credits for both Melanie Griffith and James Woods—is another smart Neo Noir crime thriller from this medium’s New Hollywood period.) 

The following videos are a clips package by Criterion; an exquisitely acted scene by Mitchum and Keats; and two United Kingdom-based men (their channel is titled More Movies)—with a shared interest in delving into films from the 1970s—who discuss their appreciation for The Friends of Eddie Coyle.

 

 

 

★☆★☆★

Coming Up…

While The Jimmy Dore Show is taking a two-week hiatus, beginning this week, and will resume with livestreams on Monday, July 10, 2023…I will be using the weeks of [Mondays,] July 3 and 10, 2023 for Vacation Break-type blog topics. This is simply to give myself a breather from having to come up with a blog topic for all of the 52 weeks in a given year. This timing is deliberately synced with the first of the two weeks including Independence Day [July 4]. While some people do take vacations, and while some people do not (for at least one reason), I think it wise for me to do this for myself. I am sure readers understand. Regular topics will resume [Monday,] July 17, 2023.

Flashback 2008: Comedian George Carlin Dies

Thursday, June 22, 2023 marks the 15-year anniversary of the death, at age 71, of Grammy-winning comedian George Carlin. 

He was born May 12, 1937, in New York, New York. (Carlin and my late father had the same birthday.)

Carlin’s first wife, Brenda [Hosbrook], died at age 57 in 1997 (Brenda Carlin dies at 57). His father, Patrick (1888–1945), died in the year Carlin turned 8. His mother, Mary, had a lengthy lifespan, born in 1896 and died in 1984. His older brother, Patrick Jr., born in 1931, died last year in his early-90s.

A year after Brenda’s death, Carlin married comedy writer Sally Wade, his widow.

George and Brenda Carlin’s daughter, Kelly, turned 60 on June 15. A part of her career has been that of a radio show host as well as a writer. She won an Emmy last year, in the category Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special, for the HBO [Max] documentary on her father, George Carlin's American Dream.

Carlin was the first host of then-NBC’s Saturday Night (now-Saturday Night Live) on October 11, 1975.

He received six prime-time Emmy-nominations. Three of them were for Outstanding Individual Performance in variety specials George Carlin: Jammin’ in New York (1992), George Carlin: 40 Years of Comedy (1997), and George Carlin: You Are All Diseased (1999). Those three specials were among 14 he did for HBO.

Carlin won five Grammys for comedy recordings (different named categories). Those prized were: FM and AM (1972); George Carlin: Jammin’ in New York (1993); Braindroppings (2001); Napalm & Sillyputty (2002); and It’s Bad for Ya! (2008, awarded posthumously).

I will be leaving this with some content by the late comedian. He had a strong sense of who—and how—we are as a people…in a nation which should not be described as enlightened. 

  

Flashback 2013: Aaron Hernandez Murders Odin Lloyd

This Saturday, June 17, 2023, marks ten years to the date that pro-football star Aaron Hernandez (b. November 6, 1989) murdered non-pro football player Odin Lloyd (b. November 14, 1985). 

Hernandez, with New England Patriots, murdered more than one person. And he clearly lived a life outside the image people had of him.

Hernandez died, at the same age as Lloyd, 27, by suicide on April 19, 2017. 

For more on the case, and its timeline, here is a good source from 2020:

Aaron Hernandez timeline: From murders and trials to prison suicide

Although I have a general skepticism in Wikipedia, here is its page on:

Murder of Odin Lloyd

This was an infamous case. That is, for all which became revealed of Hernandez. There is also the fact that his sexual life was not the same as what he presented professionally. But, in all this, it seem like not enough attention was given to Lloyd given he was a human being who, no doubt, was a better person than Hernandez. Unlike Hernandez, Lloyd was not a murderer.

The above video is from a Netflix documentary a few years ago. I used to subscribe to the service. I canceled several months ago and would return if my interest became renewed. The documentary was one of the best from the streamer.