Open Weekend

This “Open Weekend” thread is a regular thing for Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays.

Please take this Progressives Chat to wherever you may want it to go.

Glenda Jackson … The Triple Crown … Actors in Politics

While I was in Colorado, CBS broadcast live The 72nd Tony Awards on June 10, 2018.

Receiving the most attention was not a production or a winner but a particular moment and message delivered by actor Robert DeNiro: “Fuck Trump!”

I was not surprised.

But, to my benefit, I was not watching.

I don’t have any reason to belatedly comment on DeNiro.

What grabbed me, after checking out the winners list, was the great actress Glenda Jackson.

Now in her 80s, Glenda Jackson won the 2017–18 Tony Award for best actress in a play in Three Tall Women. (Jackson is pictured above accepting her trophy.) Doing this brought Jackson to the Triple Crown of Acting. She won the 1970 and 1973 Oscars for best actress in Women in Love and A Touch of Class. In between, Jackson won two 1972 best-actress Emmys for her work in the dramatic production Elizabeth R. (It first aired in 1971 on BBC before being broadcast on PBS.)

This has been a decade in which numerous from the acting world completed winning the Triple Crown of Acting. Both Helen Mirren (with a Tony) and Frances McDormand (with two Emmys) achieved this in 2015. Jessica Lange (with a Tony) reached in 2016. Viola Davis (with an Oscar) arrived in 2017. And, here in 2018, the most recent was Jackson.

There are 24 who have won the Triple Crown of Acting. (Recently coming close was Laurie Metcalf, nominated for the 2017 Oscar for supporting actress, in Lady Bird, and who was the frontrunner for some time, but she lost to Allison Janney in I, Tonya. Metcalf won her second consecutive Tony, here in 2018, working with Jackson in Three Tall Women, coming more than two decades after winning three consecutive Emmys for ABC’s Roseanne.) The list of those who have reached can be found here: Wikipedia — Triple Crown of Acting.

Congratulations, of course, to Glenda Jackson!

Now, what I find fascinating is that not too many actors, who leave acting, leave it to go into politics and, later, return to acting. In the U.S., most former actors—or, no offense, has-been actors—transition and do not return.

Actress Cynthia Nixon—with 2004 and 2008 Emmys for her regular role on HBO’s Sex and the City and a guest shot on NBC’s Law & Order: Special Victims Unit and 2006 and 2017 Tonys for Rabbit Hole and The Little Foxes (she also won a Grammy in 2009)—is seeking the Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. She has an uphill battle, to defeat Andrew Cuomo for the nomination, because the Democrats, and their loyal voters, do not unseat incumbents via primaries as does Republicans. (The corporate Democratic Party Establishment does what they can to assure this.)

This is a compliment to Republicans and their loyal voters. Recently winning primaries, for U.S House of Representatives, in California are two actors with connections to the daytime soaps. Kimberlin Brown, who received a 1993 Emmy nomination for playing Sheila Carter on CBS’s The Young and the Restless, has advanced to the general election as her party’s nominee from the 36th Congressional District of California. (Brown will face Democratic incumbent Raul Ruiz. Link: Kimberlin for Congress.) Antonio Sabato Jr., whose reputation was that of a major hunk during the 1990s on ABC’s General Hospital (he has a son with Oscar nominated actress Virginia Madsen), has also advanced to the general election as his party’s nominee from the 26th Congressional District of California. (Sabato will face Democratic incumbent Julia Brownley. Link: Vote Antonio.)

The list of U.S. actors who became elected officials are conspicuously slanted on the Republican side. You can refer to those here: Wikipedia — List of actor-politicians [USA].

This brings me back to Glenda Jackson. Had she been from the United States, Jackson would have been more likely affiliated with the Democrats. You can see just by the below video, when just after the former prime minister’s death, Jackson let loose on how damaging was Margaret Thatcher.

Jackson’s political career, in the United Kingdom, began in the early-1990s, as a member of the Labour Party. Jackson was first elected MP in 1992. Her last election was in 2010. Noted by Wikipedia, among her stances: “[Glenda Jackson] became a regular critic of [ex-prime minister Tony] Blair over his plans to introduce higher education tuition fees in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. She also called for him to resign following the Judicial Enquiry by Lord Hutton in 2003 surrounding the reasons for going to war in Iraq and the death of government adviser Dr. David Kelly. Jackson was generally considered to be a traditional left-winger, often disagreeing with the dominant Blairite governing Third Way faction in the Labour Party.”

It is unique that Glenda Jackson, after leaving Parliament in 2015, returned to acting. And to do so in her 80s. (Sources, throughout the years, have reported her year of birth as 1934 or 1935 or 1936.) She deserves applause just for that.

OW | Remembering George Carlin

It was ten years ago on this day, June 22, 2008, comedian George Carlin died at age 71.

Carlin was born May 12, 1937 in New York, New York.

Carlin was my favorite comedian. He is an example why I am grateful for having lived in period of life, so far, that includes his comedic insights. Carlin was philosophical. He was also an artist.

To read more about George Carlin, here is the page from Wikipedia: George Carlin.


Here are some videos [strong content] of George Carlin:

Here are some quotes from George Carlin:

“Weather forecast for tonight: dark.”

“When you’re born, you get a ticket to The Freak Show. When you’re born in America, you get a front row seat.”

“Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity.”

“Religion is just mind control.”

“I would never want to be a member of a group whose symbol was a guy nailed to two pieces of wood.” 

“Religion has actually convinced people that there’s an invisible man living in the sky—who watches everything you do; every minute of every day. And the invisible man has a special list of ten things He does not want you to do. And if you do any of these ten things, he has a special place, full of fire and smoke and burning and torture and anguish, where he will send you to live and suffer and burn and choke and scream and cry forever and ever—’til the end of time! But, He loves you. He loves you, and He needs money! He always needs money! He’s all-powerful, all-perfect, all-knowing, and all-wise—somehow, [He] just can’t handle money!” 

 “You know an odd feeling? Sitting on the toilet eating a chocolate candy bar.”

“At a formal dinner party, the person nearest death should always be seated closest to the bathroom.”

 “The status quo sucks.”

 “Bipartisan usually means that a larger-than-usual deception is being carried out.” 

“When fascism comes to America, it will not be in brown and black shirts. It will not be with jack-boots. It will be Nike sneakers and Smiley shirts.”

“Boy, these conservatives are really something, aren’t they? They’re all in favor of the unborn. They will do anything for the unborn. But once you’re born, you're on your own. Pro-life conservatives are obsessed with the fetus from conception to nine months. After that, they don’t want to know about you. They don’t want to hear from you. No nothing. No neonatal care, no day care, no Head Start, no school lunch, no food stamps, no Welfare, no nothing. If you’re preborn, you’re fine; if you’re preschool, you’re fucked.”

“If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you’re going to have selfish, ignorant leaders.”

“The next time they give you all that civic bullshit about voting, keep in mind that Hitler was elected in a full, free, democratic election.”

“Oh Beautiful for smoggy skies, insecticide grain, for strip-mined mountain’s majesty above the asphalt plain. America, America! Man sheds his waste on thee, and hides the pines with billboard signs, from sea to oily sea.” 

“I do this real moronic thing. It’s called thinking. And I’m not a very good American, because I like to form my own opinions.”

“I don’t have pet peeves—I have major, psychotic, fucking hatreds!” 

“I don’t like ass-kissers, flag-wavers, or team players. I like people who buck the system. Individualists. I often warn people: ‘Somewhere along the way, someone is going to tell you: “There is no I in team.”’ What you should tell them is: ‘Maybe not. But there is an I in independence, individuality, and integrity.'’” 

“May the forces of evil be confused on their way to your house.” 

“The most unfair thing about life is the way it ends. I mean, life is tough. It takes up a lot of your time. What do you get at the end of it? A death! What’s that—a bonus? I think the life cycle is all backwards. You should die first; get it out of the way. Then you live in an old-age home. You get kicked out when you’re too young; you get a gold watch; you go to work. You work forty years, until you’re young enough to enjoy your retirement. You do drugs, alcohol; you party; you get ready for high school. You go to grade school; you become a kid; you play; you have no responsibilities; you become a little baby; you go into the womb; you spend your last nine months floating; and you finish off as an orgasm.”

Democrats’ Magic Number: +7

The 2018 midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 6, 2018.

A part of the guessing—and the predicting—has to do with people’s senses as to whether the incumbent majority party, the Republican Party, will end up with party-held majorities or if the minority party, the Democratic Party, will win a new majority pickup of one or both houses of Congress.

I wrote about this topic, at the start of 2018, here: A 2018 Blue Wave.

I will be concentrating, with this blog entry, on the U.S. House.

(Side note: This is not about how I personally will vote this coming November.)

I was looking at Real Clear Politics for its aggregation of recent polls. (The above is about “Generic Congressional Ballot.” Those shown cover this current month of June up to this blog entry’s posting date.)

Every source reports that Democrats are in the lead. So, I would not predict the Republicans to ultimately win the overall seat gains—certainly not for U.S. House. There are the the retirements. And there is the fact that 54th U.S. House speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin #01) is ending his active career after 2018. That tells me the speaker’s internal poll numbers—and I am sure he has them on his Republican House—informed Ryan’s decision to not try to get re-elected. (He did not want to risk losing re-election.)


2018, from the Democratic Party’s perspective, is one they think they will win with flipping at least the U.S. House but are hopeful they will likewise achieve with the U.S. Senate. They would like it to be a national wave which also changes their count for state governorships and state legislatures. And, to achieve that, they figure voting patterns—and Republican incumbent president Donald Trump—will make that happen. (Check out, for a reminder, a post-Election 2016 Nancy Pelosi, at the mark of 09:10, from the linked video of The Jimmy Dore Show.) Well, the Democrats may be correct. 23 of the last 26 midterm elections—that is, since the 17th Amendment affected first the midterm elections of 1914 (and running that through the most recent such cycle, 2014)—were won with overall seat gains by the White House opposition party.

I recently looked at past elections in which there was a party switch for U.S. House. Knowing there is a record of the U.S. Popular Vote, specifically for U.S. House, I think I can gauge what it will take for the 2018 Democrats—on the watch of Republican incumbent president Donald Trump—with how much this Democratic Party will need in order to win over the U.S. Popular Vote to feasibly flip party control for at least the lower chamber.

In 2016, the Republican pickup year of the presidency for Donald Trump, Team Red won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House by +1.08 percentage point. (It was the Republicans at 49.11 to the 48.03 percent for the Democrats.) In 2014, the midterm year in which Republicans won a majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate, their U.S. Popular Vote margin for U.S. House was +5.70. (It was the Republicans’ 51.23 to 45.53 percent for the Democrats.) So, the 2014-to-2016 popular-vote margin shift was Democratic +4.62. Despite having the White House, and seeing it flip Republican, this yielded +6 seat gains for Team Blue.

Since I am noting the word shift, I want to quickly explain why that is important. In elections that switch party control, the level of a shift, and in which party’s direction, informs whether it is sufficient for the flip—and, if so, how much gets delivered for that eventual party-pickup victory. For example: In the Democratic presidential pickup year of 2008, for Barack Obama, the national 2004-to-2008 shift was +9.72 percentage points. 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry lost in the U.S. Popular Vote by –2.46 percentage points. (Kerry received 48.27 to the 50.73 percent for re-elected Republican president George W. Bush.) 2008 Obama, with that Democratic +9.72 national shift, won over the U.S. Popular Vote by +7.26 percentage points. With that, Obama carried the losing Kerry map: 19 states, plus District of Columbia, and their mathematical 252 electoral votes. That Democratic shift is what helped Obama flip nine states (plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District), and their combined +113 electoral votes, for a winning electoral-vote score of 365.


The following is a review of the past party-flipping U.S. House elections, post-17th Amendment, and with comparing them to the cycle just two years earlier. I note the margins won in those elections, nationally, and I also note the national shift from the previous election cycle. I also note the numbers of switched seats. From these pickups, I was able to determine the average number of percentage points nationally shifted that brought those results. (The 2018 Democrats need a pickup of +25 seats.)

 • 1930 (Democratic pickup off Republican president Herbert Hoover): No Information. (Republicans, as of Election Night outcome, held by one seat the U.S. House. Special elections followed which made Democrats the new majority as the next Congress commenced.)
 • 1946 (Republican pickup off Democratic president Harry Truman): Republican [R] +11.5. (Shift, from 1944: R+16.2.) Seats gained: R+55. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: R+3.39.)
 • 1948 (Democratic pickup with full-term election for Democratic president Harry Truman): Democratic [D] +7.2. (Shift, from 1946: D+18.7.) Seats gained: D+75. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: D+4.01.)
 • 1952 (Republican pickup with Republican presidential pickup winner Dwight Eisenhower): Bad sampling which will not be averaged here. (Long story short: The 1950 Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote by +0.7 percentage points. The 1952 U.S. House Republicans shifted the national popular-vote margin gain by just +0.27, allowing the Democrats to hold the 1952 U.S. Popular Vote by +0.43, but the Republicans flipped 22 Democratic-held U.S. House seats along with that party’s pickup of the presidency. When Dwight Eisenhower won his Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, he shifted +15.33 points in order to win his popular-vote pickup with a margin of +10.85. The Democrats’ margins, for U.S. House, were through their held seats in the south, at which time that region was still aligned to their party. The only non-southern states carried by losing Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson were border states Kentucky and West Virginia.)
 • 1954 (Democratic pickup off Republican president Dwight Eisenhower): Democratic +5.51. (Shift, from 1952: D+5.08.) Seats gained: D+19. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: D+3.74.)
 • 1994 (Republican pickup off Democratic president Bill Clinton): Republican +7.04. (Shift, from 1992: R+12.03.) Seats gained: R+54. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: R+4.48.)
 • 2006 (Democratic pickup off Republican president George W. Bush): Democratic +8.01 (Shift, from 2004: D+11.37.) Seats gained: D+31. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: D+2.72.)
 • 2010 (Republican pickup off Democratic president Barack Obama): Republican +6.73. (Shift, from 2008: R+17.33.) Seats gained: R+63. (Average percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gained: R+3.63.)

Here is a guide (going by +3.66 percentage points nationally shifted with each seat gain) that shows how many seats would emerge as 2018 Democratic pickups:


The National Margin (after –01.08) = Yielded Pickups (increments +xx.08 x 3.66 avg.)

D+0 = +3 [seat gains]
D+1 = +4 to +7
D+2 = +8 to +11
D+3 = +12 to +14
D+4 = +15 to +18
D+5 = +19 to +22
D+6 = +23 to +25
D+7 = +26 to +29
D+8 = +30 to +33
D+9 = +34 to +36
D+10 = +37 to +40
D+11 = +41 to +44
D+12 = +45 to +47
D+13 = +48 to +51
D+14 = +52 to +55
D+15 = +56 to +58
D+16 = +59 to +62
D+17 = +63 to +66
D+18 = +67 to +69
D+19 = +70 to +73
D+20 = +74 to +77

Now, if you want, you can eliminate 1948, because that year was the only applied election that was not a midterm election. Historically, when one or both houses of Congress does a party switch in a presidential election cycle…well, they flip to the party which also won the presidency. (Examples: 1932—Democratic pickups of the presidency and U.S. Senate; 1948—Democratic hold of the presidency and pickups of both houses of Congress; 1952—Republican pickups of the presidency and both houses of Congress; 1980—Republican pickups of the presidency and the U.S. Senate.) Since we are in the year 2018, I will not that a party switch going to the White House opposition party and, as historical pattern, does so in a midterm cycle. So, take that +4.01 average from 1948 and subtract. This would mean a cumulative 17.96 (down from 21.97). After that, divide that by 5 (down from 6) examples. This would yield an average of +3.59 percentage points nationally shifted for each seat gain.


Here is a guide (going by +3.59 percentage points nationally shifted with each seat gain) that shows how many seats would emerge as 2018 Democratic pickups:


The National Margin (after –01.08) = Yielded Pickups (increments +xx.08 x 3.59 avg.)

D+0 = +3 [seat gains]
D+1 = +4 to +7
D+2 = +8 to +11
D+3 = +12 to +14
D+4 = +15 to +18
D+5 = +19 to +21
D+6 = +22 to +25
D+7 = +26 to +29
D+8 = +30 to +32
D+9 = +33 to +36
D+10 = +37 to +39
D+11 = +40 to +43
D+12 = +44 to +46
D+13 = +47 to +50
D+14 = +51 to +54
D+15 = +55 to +57
D+16 = +58 to +61
D+17 = +62 to +64
D+18 = +65 to +68
D+19 = +69 to +72
D+20 = +73 to +75

This is really my theory (based on past performance).

Perhaps a national margin of +6 would be enough for the Democrats. But, I think +6 is so tossup it would be cutting it too close. I feel certain +5 or less would not be enough for the 2018 Democrats to flip the U.S. House.

If I was working for the Democratic Party, I would look at +7 as sufficient. A margin of +8 would be more comfortable. A national margin even higher than +8 would yield dramatically more seat pickups. (I came across this Gallup that says the average number of flipped U.S. House seats, from past midterm elections, for when an incumbent president’s job approval has been below 50 percent, has been 36. Link: Gallup — “Avg. Midterm Seat Loss 36 for Presidents Below 50% Approval”—so, if the Democrats flip the U.S. House, and reach that historical number, they would win nationally by either +9 or +10.)

When you compare those scenario lists, you can see why I conclude the 2018 Democrats, in their attempt to win over a new majority for the U.S. House, will need to win a likewise Democratic pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote a margin of +7.

OW | That ‘Christopher Cross’ Album!

My blog entries, here at Progressives Chat, are usually political. But, from time to time, I will post a blog entry which is not political. (There is a quote mentioning “TSA.”) This one applies.


I was at a discussion site last month in which someone mentioned thinking about singer–songwriter Christopher Cross’s 1980 hit “Sailing.” People were waxing nostalgic over it. It is wonderful song.

(As a child of the 1970s and 1980s, I listen to a lot of music from this period. It may be that, given I am not into recent and current music, I feel most satisfied. Sure, I respect Adele and Bruno Mars; but, I don’t make a point of listening to them. I like what I grew up with.)

According to Wikipedia, “Sailing” was released 38 years ago on this date, June 15, 1980, and I associate that song with summer. [Link: Wikipedia — ‘Sailing‘ (Christopher Cross).] But, it isn’t just that song; it’s the whole album Christopher Cross. (It was a big Grammy winner—Album of the Year and both Record of the Year and Song of the Year for “Sailing.” Christopher Cross was released in December 1979. Its Grammys eligibility was for the year 1980.)

A key part from “Sailing”:

All caught up in the reverie

Every word is a symphony, won’t you believe me?

Sailing, takes me away

To where I’ve always heard it

Just a dream and the wind to carry me

Soon I will be free

It is really the entire album Christopher Cross. From Stephen Thomas Erlewine’s review at AllMusic.com (Christopher Cross): “In retrospect, it might seem like the kind of success that’s disproportional to the record itself, especially to hipper-than-thou younger generations, but in truth, Christopher Cross was a hell of a record… And while the hits like the dreamy ‘Sailing’ and the surging ‘Ride Like the Wind’ deserved all the attention, they’re hardly the only highlights here…there’s not a weak moment here. In fact, soft rock albums hardly ever came better than this, and it remains one of the best mainstream albums of its time.”

On that LP, in addition to “Sailing,” were a trio which also placed on Billboard’s Pop Chart: “Say You’ll Be Mine,” “Never Be the Same,” and “Ride Like the Wind.” In fact, below are YouTube-uploaded videos of those songs (placed in their listed tracks order).

I found an interesting interview, from 2014, with Christopher Cross (born May 3, 1951 in San Antonio, Texas) here: ‘Christopher Cross sails back with a new album’. Cross, who had a big rise—including winning the 1981 Oscar for best original song for “Arthur’s Theme (The Best That You Can Do),” from Arthur—and a fall, admitted to encountering a fan who assumed he had died. “I was going through TSA—this has been a year, or maybe two years ago,”  Cross recalled. “And a woman took my boarding pass. And she said, ‘Oh, Christopher Cross, there used to be a singer named that! He passed away! But he was a great singer.’”



What albums and/or songs do you associate with the summer?

And now for this Open Weekend [OW]…

Vacation Week

From  DenverPhotoBlog.com

I am on vacation in Colorado.

Don’t let that stop you from posting whatever may be on your mind.

This blog entry will cover Wednesday [June 13, 2018] as well.

I will post an “Open Weekend” blog thread this Friday [June 15].

I return on Saturday [June 16]. I may not have a new blog entry up for next Monday [June 18]. Part of this is how tired I may be. But, there is also Father’s Day [on Sunday June 17].

I will keep people posted.

OW | Vacation Time

From  DenverPhotoBlog.com

On Saturday [June 9, 2018], I will be flying to Colorado to visit for a week with a relative with whom I am close.

I take annual visits and the two of us keep in touch.

This is my Aunt. She is the sister of my late mother. And next Wednesday [June 13] marks her 75th birthday. It’s deliberate timing.

I will leave Progressives Chat without specific political content for blog topics during next week [Monday, June 11]. The following week [Monday, June 18] should be back to normal. But, from my end, I will create blog entries and schedule them for specified dates and times…just in case. (Sometimes, I can feel tired from a trip. I will know when that time arrives for me.)

With all this in mind, I leave this with the usual stating of the following…




And now for this Open Weekend [OW]…

Arrogance

The midterm elections are five months from this week.

I have no intention of voting for the Democratic Party in the general election.

What turned me was the rigging of the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries. But, not just that, for a number of years I have been pulling away from the corporatism of this political party’s establishment.

What, if you’re willing to say, is your position?

OW | Coming In June…

During the month of June 2018, I will be having one less blog entry per week.

The regular entries will be on Mondays. The “Open Weekend” thread will be on Fridays.

This is only for the month of June.

I have a reason for this: I will be on vacation during the week of June 11, 2018. After returning, I don’t know how my mood will be to create new blog entries the following week. And, given the summer tends to offer some vacation breaks for many people, I will give myself a little break during this particular month.

Blog threads currently allow comments good for a period of seven days from the entry’s posting date. A thread beginning on Monday leaves plenty of room for people to freely comment especially until the next weekend arrives.




And now for this Open Weekend [OW]…