Due to the fact December 25, 2022 and January 1, 2023 fall on Sundays…Progressives Chat blog topics for this week, and next week, will be timed for those two holidays. Immediately at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Regular Progressives Chat blog topics will resume, at 06:00 a.m. ET, on Monday, January 9, 2023.
This will be the last regular blog topic here in 2022.
As the holidays approach, and due to the way the calendar falls, I will have dedicated blog topics which will be simple greetings for Christmas and New Year’s.
The next two weeks will be scheduled at 12:00 a.m. ET on Sundays, December 25, 2022 and January 1, 2023.
There should be no worries. I have set up the Disqus comments section good for a period of ten [10] days. This means the gap between the New Year’s blog topic and the next regularly scheduled Progressives Chat, which will be at 06:00 a.m. ET on Monday, January 9, 2023, will be covered.
I thank the regulars here at Progressives Chat for continuing to trust me with keeping this site going, from week to week, and now for more than five years, and I wish everyone a safe and satisfying holiday period.
Last Tuesday [December 6, 2022] was the runoff election for U.S. Senate in Georgia.
Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock, above left, was re-elected to a first full term and, at the same time, defeated his Republican challenger, former football star Herschel Walker.
Media narrative is that this is much Donald Trump’s fault. He inserted himself into the 2022 Republican primaries and endorsed many who did not win the general election. They are not entirely wrong. But, I don’t think that explains enough.
I would assert that we are dealing with realigning periods and voting patterns.
We are in a realigning period in which the presidency of the United States is being most dominantly won by the Democratic Party. Three of the last four elections cycles—2008, 2012, and 2020—were won by the Democrats. (Historically, no past period has seen a given political party win three of four cycles and not experienced the presidency realigned in their favor.)
Referring to past realigning periods, considering just the two major political parties of today, Republican vs. Democratic, one can take this back to 1860. Every realigning period—1860 (Republican); 1896 (Republican, renewal); 1932 (Democratic); 1968 (Republican)—saw the newly favored party win at least 70 percent of election cycles for the next 30-plus-year period. (All of those periods’s U.S. presidents, presiding over those realignments, won re-elections.) The previous realigning period, for the Republicans, ran 7 of 10 cycles between 1968–2004. The others cited were each 9 cycles in which each dominant party won 7. So, they amounted to 70 to 77 percent of election cycles for dominance.
The current one, which began in 2008 with a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Barack Obama, has so far run a 40-year parallel to the previous one. This will be especially the case—and to the point of no denial—if the Democrats win again in 2024. The five cycles of 1968 to 1984 were 4-to-1 in favor of the Republicans. They won Elections 1968, 1972, 1980, and 1984. So far, here in 2022, the Democrats won 2008, 2012, and 2020 with 2024 in the future. And where that leaves this is a possible 40-year parallel with the in-between cycles—1976 (Democratic) and 2016 (Republican)—for the disadvantaged party.
If I was to seriously guess, as if I was under pressure, which party will prevail for U.S. President in 2024…I would go with the Democratic Party. The Republican Party of today is reminding me of the Democratic Party from forty years ago—that they are a joke. Back in the 1980s, with winning only 1-for-6 cycles, from 1968 to 1988, the Democratic Party was considered the joke. Even the NBC comedy series The Golden Girls (1985–1992) had a scene in which Rose [Betty White] showed the Girls a dog who she claims is great at fetching and can find anything. Sophia [Estelle Getty] responded by saying to that dog, Find me a viable Democratic presidential candidate. The Republicans of today appear lost and out of touch and, with that, they look like they are not in a position to win back the White House in 2024. (It would be the third consecutive election cycle to deliver a White House party switch. The most consecutive cycles were four. They played out in 1884, 1888, 1892, and 1896.) When a party is on the losing side of a realigning period, it ends up getting sick of being on that losing side. It ends up becoming forced to change. To change their party. This is especially so with the issue of abortion which, despite flipping the U.S. House, cost the GOP in the recent 2022 midterm elections—notably in races the Republicans could and should have won (a standout state was Kansas)—and this may cost them again in 2024. (Today’s Democrats can use abortion as yesterday’s Republicans used guns for their electoral success.)
When it comes to realignments, one can refer to other forms. This has me thinking of realigning changes in voting patterns in particular states.
After Election 2020, I noted that—for the first time since 1960—Ohio did not vote for the winner. I wrote about it here: The State of Ohio: A Bellwether No More.
I have also observed that, since 1968, every time the White House party switched, a pickup winning Republican or Democrat won over at least one state which has since not voted for the party which lost it.
• 1968 Republican pickup winner Richard Nixon won over to his party: *Alaska (which, so far, has carried only once, in 1964, for the Democratic Party); Idaho; Kansas; Nebraska (statewide, and its 1st and 3rd congressional districts); North Dakota; Oklahoma; South Dakota; Utah; and Wyoming.
• 1976 Democratic pickup winner Jimmy Carter won over: Minnesota.
• 1980 Republican pickup winner Ronald Reagan won over: Alabama; Mississippi; South Carolina; and Texas.
• 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton won over: California; Connecticut; Delaware; Illinois; Maine (statewide and its 1st congressional district); Maryland; New Jersey; and Vermont.
• 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush won over: Arkansas; Kentucky; Louisiana; Missouri; Tennessee; and West Virginia.
• 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama won over: Colorado; Nevada; New Mexico; and Virginia.
The last two U.S. presidential election cycles, 2016 and 2020, were also White House party switches. Three states were carried each time: Pennsylvania and Michigan, which are Top 10 populous states, and Wisconsin. This leads me to separate the rest because I anticipate the next White House party switch—which go from Democratic to Republican—will once again do some reshuffling on the map.
The 2016 Republican pickups, specifically for Donald Trump, which likely realigned: Florida; Iowa; Ohio; with Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
The 2020 Democratic pickups, specifically for Joe Biden, which likely realigned: Arizona; Georgia; with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
I am certain of this, in part, because historically there has never been one U.S. presidential election whose electoral map was later duplicated. (For example: There are differences in the last two winning Republicans, George W. Bush and Donald Trump, who both won their first-term elections with 30 states. Likewise with comparing the 2012 and 2020 Democratic wins, to the tune of 26 and 25 states, for Barack Obama and Joe Biden.) There is too much to consider—with the dynamics and complexities—involving human nature and issues throughout history in a nation especially as large as the U.S.
To explain these realignments, for voting change, I will next focus on the four biggest states applicable to Elections 2016 and 2020:
Realigning this state from quintessential bellwether to Republican was made possible thanks to the trade deals, ushered in by the Democrats (like Bill Clinton), and 2016 Donald Trump addressing the issue. (There is also the fact Ohio voted for the winners in 14 consecutive cycles from 1964 to 2016. Longest unbroken streak, with 16 consecutive cycles from 1912 to 1972, belongs to Nevada and New Mexico.) The northeast counties Trumbull (Warren) and Mahoning (Youngstown), both of which carried for re-electing Barack Obama with more 60 percent of their votes, by more than +20 percentage points when he won statewide by +3 (with a U.S. Popular Vote margin nearly +4), shifted far enough to flip Republican in 2016 and 2020 for Trump. More counties, as bellwethers to the state and/or national outcomes—notably, Portage (Ravenna) and Wood (Bowling Green)—have also broken patterns to realign Republican.
The 2018 midterm elections effectively told us Florida was realigning when Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson became unseated by GOP challenger Rick Scott for U.S. Senate. In 2012, Nelson won by over +1 million raw votes and +13 percentage points (as Barack Obama was re-elected and carried the state by under +75,000 votes and +0.88 points). This suggested, in 2018, Nelson should easily get re-elected—and pull in gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum in a Democratic pickup. What happened, instead, was Florida voters elected Ron DeSantis in a GOP hold for governor by +0.40 and a Republican U.S. Senate pickup for Rick Scott by +0.15; meaning, tight margins as won by the same party; suggesting a clear party preference. The 2022 gubernatorial and senatorial margins, for re-elections for DeSantis and U.S. senator Marco Rubio, were also close to each other. Miami–Dade County (Miami), which has been carrying for Democrats, for U.S. President, with nearly or at 60 percent, is trending red. In 2016, It gave Hillary Clinton a margin of +29.39 percentage points. (She received 63 percent of the vote.) 2020 Joe Biden carried it by only +7.33. (He received 52 percent of the vote.) In the 2022 midterm elections, both DeSantis and Rubio—with statewide margins exceeding +1 million votes and +15 percentage points—flipped Miami–Dade County. This is the No. 1 most-populous county in Florida. For a Democrat to carry it over a long period, then barely carry it (in a year in which they flipped the presidency), and then lose it in a midterm (when normally they would still manage to carry it)…makes it likely the Democrats will not carry Florida, for U.S. President, for some time.
Realigning this state to the Democrats begins with Donald Trump underperforming Maricopa County (Phoenix) in 2016, winning there by +2.84 percentage points when his statewide margin was +3.50. (His U.S. Popular Vote margin was –2.09. Had a normal pattern played out, that would have been his positive-side margin.) Here is the problem: Republicans used to typically carry Maricopa County +2 or +3 above their statewide margins. This set up Democratic pickups for 2018 Kyrsten Sinema, for U.S. Senate; 2020 Joe Biden and Mark Kelly, for U.S. President and U.S. Senate; and 2022 Katie Hobbs, for Governor of Arizona. They all won over Maricopa County with higher margins than their statewide results. With over 60 percent of citizens in this county, in addition to second-ranked and Democratic-aligned Pima County (Tucson), which is around 15 percent of the vote, they combine for just over 75 percent of the statewide vote. Add another Top 10 populous county, Coconino County (Flagstaff), and this renders Republicans unlikely to win back Arizona, for U.S. President, for some time. In fact: If the next Republican presidential pickup winner fails to flip and carry Arizona, which entered the union as the nation’s 48th state and voted for the first time in 1912, it would mark the first time in that political party’s history that they won the presidency without this state.
A trio of counties in Metro Atlanta—Gwinnett (Lawrenceville), Cobb (Marietta), and Henry (McDonough)—have realigned to the Democrats. They are Top 10 populous counties in Georgia. Henry flipped for U.S. Senate nominee Michelle Nunn in 2014. That county plus Gwinnett and Cobb flipped for U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. (This marked the first time a Democratic nominee carried all three since the period of Jimmy Carter.) All three also flipped yet further solidified Democratic margins for 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacy Abrams. Nunn lost statewide by –7.68 percentage points. Clinton lost statewide by –5.10. Abrams lost statewide by –1.39. Then Joe Biden won a 2020 Democratic pickup of Georgia, with rock-solid margins in all three counties, with a statewide margin of +0.24. The 2020 U.S. Senate flipped Democratic with Georgia serving as the tipping-point state as both Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock prevailed in runoff elections—and obviously with all three key counties—while unseating Republican incumbents David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. And yet there is another key county positioning the Democrats to realign Georgia. In Fayette County (Fayetteville), in the southwest area of Metro Atlanta and the state’s No. 21 most-populous county, the trajectory has been dramatic. In 2004, re-elected Republican U.S. president George W. Bush won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.46 and carried Georgia by +16.60. Bush won Fayette County by around +43 points, reaching 70 percent of the county’s vote. In 2020, as Joe Biden flipped the state, Fayette County held Republican by +6.80. In five election cycles, the county went from +27 down to +7 points in favor of the GOP. In the 2022 midterm elections for U.S. Senate, it reduced Republican-level support for Hershel Walker by under a five-point advantage. In the runoff, Walker carried the county by just under +500 raw votes and by approximately +0.90 percentage points. (Warnock won statewide by close to +2.75.)
In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama was elected and re-elected with Ohio and Florida while he never once carried either Arizona or Georgia.
In the 2020s, for the Democrats—if they prevail in 2024 (Joe Biden or other)—Arizona and Georgia will be in their column while they will not carry either Ohio or Florida.
This information is why I think the 2022 runoff election for U.S. Senate from Georgia says much more than any media commentary on why Herschel Walker was defeated by Raphael Warnock.
A related video, speaking to change in Georgia, is posted below.
This week’s blog topic addresses two Scandals. The first is from 1972. The second is from 2022.
Thursday, December 8, 2022 marks the 50-year anniversary of the crash of Flight 553 in Chicago, Illinois. According to a 40-year anniversary report from Chicago Tribune (1972’s United Flight 553 crash): “United Airlines Flight 553 crashed into a row of bungalows on West 70th Place, in Chicago, while approaching Midway Airport on [Friday, December 8, 1972], killing 43 of the 61 persons aboard, and two in a home. The plane left Washington, D.C., for Omaha [Nebraska,] and was about to make a planned stop in Chicago when the pilot was instructed by the control tower to execute a ‘missed approach’ pattern. As he went around for another landing attempt, the plane struck tree branches and then some bungalows before plowing into the home of Veronica [Cuculich, b. April 22, 1902]. She and her daughter, Theresa [b. September 9, 1935], died.”
Among those on board Flight 553 who were also killed: Dorothy (Wetzel) Hunt (b. April 1, 1920; Spartacus Educational: Dorothy Hunt), the wife of CIA figure and Watergate conspirator E. Howard Hunt (1918–2007); George Collins (b. March 5, 1925; COLLINS, George Washington), a Democratic incumbent member of the United States House of Representatives from Illinois’s-then 6th Congressional District; and investigative news journalist Michele Clark (b. June 2, 1943; Spartacus Educational: Michele Clark), who was previously an anchor from Chicago’s CBS-affiliated station WBBM–TV and who was recently transferred to Washington, D.C. as a CBS News correspondent. (She was featured on-air with some of CBS News’s Election Night coverage on Tuesday, November 7, 1972.)
The incident was one in which many suspect it was not really an accident. That this was connected with then-U.S. president Richard Nixon’s administration. That Dorothy Hunt, who was a CIA employee, was on board with $10,000 in cash and was blackmailing the Nixon administration for their involvement in the break-in at the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee in Washington, D.C. That Clark was looking to break the story on the coverup. This came one month after Nixon, whose job approval, due to a good economy, was around 60 percent (and won re-election at the level which rendered for him carriage of 49 states). He was at an early stage of what would eventually mark the end of his presidency—which, frankly, he caused (even Barry “Mr. Conservative” Goldwater had to tell him it was over)—and would culminate in Nixon’s resignation on Friday, August 9, 1974.
Following the death of U.S. Rep. Collins, his widow Cardiss Collins (1931–2013) won a special election, on Tuesday, June 5, 1973, to her husband’s congressional seat and would win re-elections through 1994. She retired by the end of 1996. (That seat is now held by her successor, Danny K. Davis.) Clark has a school, Michele Clark Academic Prep Magnet High School, named in her honor. Hunt was neutralized. (Consideration: Crash Of Flight 553 Watergate Paymistress Murdered Or Who Killed Dorothy Hunt.)
I encourage readers to check out the linked Chicago Tribune report, from 2012, as it includes some vivid pictures from the crash scene. (A recent report, for the 50th anniversary, is also available from the publication; however, it is apparently accessible via a paywall.)
The below videos cover news of the Flight 553 crash, along with analyses, a 1971 WBBM–TV newscast which includes Clark, and a 1973 audio interview which is a take on the case by author Sherman Skolnik (1930–2006). Like another person I mentioned in a previous blog topic, this past May, Remembering Mae Brussell (1922–1988), Skolnik had the stigma label Conspiracy Theorist attached to him. (He did not think the Flight 553 crash was an accident. Transcript for the video: Two views on the crash of Flight 553 w/ Sherman Skolnik.) I look at conspiracy theorists as thinkers. For some people, especially when they are accepting and embracing of The Official Record, they can be uncomfortable.
✶ ✶ ✶ ✶ ✶ ✶ ✶ ✶ ✶ ✶
Last Friday [December 2, 2022], journalist Matt Taibbi reported that Twitter—prior to its current and new ownership by Elon Musk—worked on behalf of Joe Biden and the Democratic Party to censor tweets especially in response to Hunter Biden’s laptop scandal. That Twitter did this at the request of Biden and the Democrats. That Twitter also suspended accounts, some permanently, with the familiar claims of them being disinformation and/or misinformation.
What content there is, as of this blog’s publishing date, is not complete. At this time, I have not read all. I did watch videos published to YouTube by sources such as The Dive with Jackson Hinkle and Due Dissidence. In fact, on Sunday [December 4, 2022], Sabby Sabs published to YouTube her response. (I trust this will be covered this week on The Jimmy Dore Show.)
I will be blunt, here, with stating that this not only does not surprise me but feels rather typical. I do not trust the Democrats, especially ever since 2016 when they rigged their primaries, and it has been one thing after another for, thus far, seven consecutive years. This is just one more example.
It is that time of the year.
Monday, November 28, 2022 is…
I already took advantage of Black Friday and/or Cyber Monday and/or Whatever Day!
I have a new dishwasher.
I know how to have fun.
But, seriously, that is my contribution here in 2022.
(It was born out of necessity. My previous one had to go.)
One thing is certain: This is not a time of the year—as there is no time of the year; of any year—to put yourself into unnecessary debt for the shallowness and hollowness of consumerism.
All the best to everyone during this period of the year.
Progressives Chat will resume next week with a new topic.
I wish everyone a pleasant holiday.
The 2022 midterm elections were a wave election.
They were not a wave election for the White House opposition Republican Party.
They were not a wave election for the White House Democratic Party.
This was not a Red Wave.
This was not a Blue Wave.
If one insists on a color, and that is understandable, this was more in the way of a Purple Wave.
Current trajectory for the United States House of Representatives, which has not been called by the date of this blog topic (but will become updated and mentioned should they be determined and projected during this week), is in favor of a Republican majority pickup.
The United States Senate, as determined last Saturday [November 11, 2022], was projected as a Democratic hold regardless the special election scheduled for December 6, 2022 in Georgia. (The outcome would be either 50-vs.-50 or 51-vs.-49 in favor of the Democrats.)
The type of wave election that best describes the midterm election of 2022 was one not experienced before.
The 2022 midterm elections was an Abortion Wave.
Yes—a midterms wave election which was for Reproductive Freedom.
The Roe v. Wade decision, from the U.S. Supreme Court, was in 1973. The 2022 repeal of that decision, in Dobbs v. Jackson, was an electoral gift to the 2022 Democrats. Had this not happened, they would have been on the wrong side of a wave election. A sufficient number of voters—nationwide and state after state—solidified their support to make sure the Republicans would not have their wave. (Side note: On this issue, I support Pro-Choice.)
This is, understandably, Pro-Choice females not wanting government to tell them whether or not they can have an abortion. (A sufficient number of males are also Pro-Choice.) I think there were plenty of people, including myself, who underestimated the level of just how critically important the role this issue would have, while anticipating and predicting, with the 2022 midterm elections. That Inflation, while the No. 1 issue with many, was outvoted by Abortion because, and I am guessing here, enough of the voting electorate are aware of enough of the past economic crises which have struck every so many years while this has not been so with Reproductive Freedom.
I had, during Election Week, predicted 240 and 52 seats for a majority-pickup winning Republican U.S. House and U.S. Senate. It has, over the last few days, been estimated the 2022 GOP is poised to win over the U.S. House with around 220 seats. (Required for majority are 218.) This is not even 51 percent of the U.S. House seats. To look back at a post-17th Amendment, dating back to the 1910s, for subsequent midterm elections: There were eight cycles, prior to 2022, in which the U.S. House flipped. (Those occurred in 1918, 1930, 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2018.) Of those eight, the U.S. House without the U.S. Senate flipped three prior times. (Those occurred in 1930, 2010, and 2018.) The remaining five cycles saw both houses of Congress flip. (Those occurred in 1918, 1946, 1954, 1994, and 2006.) In every case, the White House opposition party entered the next Congress with a higher percentage of seats in the U.S. House. (This helps explain why, when one flips, what comes first is the House.) The average number of newly established seats, based on their percentages (and rounded to their whole numbers), were 235 seats in the U.S. House. In seven of those past cycles, the opposition party established seats in the 230s or 240s. (The area of 53 to 55 percent of U.S. House seats.) Just once did it fall below 230. This occurred with the 1930 Democrats. They ended up with 219 seats. This is the estimated level which would be experienced by the 2022 Republicans. So, it is no wonder the 2022 Democrats will retain majority control of the U.S. Senate. (The upcoming runoff in Georgia, I will guess, is going to result in a Democratic hold for incumbent Raphael Warnock. I doubt the GOP will knock themselves out to try to get their nominee, Herschel Walker, to unseat Warnock in an effort to end up Even at 50-vs.-50. Based on how the votes have played out—nationally and state after state—it is likely this will have the same outcome.)
There were numerous Ballot Measures—ones which were favorable outcomes for The People—which are not limited to only particular state colors. They came from Red States, Blue States, and Purple States.
Given my summary of the 2022 midterm elections, especially for federal offices, were an Abortion Wave, four states were won by voters for Reproductive Freedom: California, Kentucky, Vermont and, especially noteworthy, Michigan. (In fact, the Michigan Legislatures resulted in the 2022 Democrats winning back power, for majority, for the first time in 40 years.) … Two states voted in favor to Legalize Marijuana: Missouri and North Dakota. … Two states voted for Minimum Wage Increase: Nebraska and Nevada.
Among other Ballot Measures, approved by voters, which should benefit The People: Alabama voted to Allow Internet infrastructure funding. … Arizona Voted to Impose new medical debt limits. … California voted to Require funding of K–12 art education. … Colorado voted to Create [a] “Healthy school meals for all” program. … Connecticut voted to Allow early voting. … Maryland voted to Change residency requirements for state legislative candidates. … Massachusetts voted to Increase taxes on incomes greater than $1 million. … Michigan voted to Change term limits for lawmakers; require annual financial disclosures [of officeholders]. … Montana voted to Require search warrant to access electronic data or or communications. … New York voted to Create “True cost of living” metric in New York City. … North Dakota voted to Limit governors and state legislatures to serving eight years in office.
One of this site’s regulars, cathyx, posted comment showing a color-coded map of the actual winners for the 2022 midterm elections (and you can apply this to every type of general election and specific year).
So…
The Ultimate Winners of the 2022 midterm elections are: The Oligarchs.
There will be no argument coming from me.
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 is Election Day for the 2022 midterm elections.
All 435 of the U.S.House seats are on the schedule.
Class #03 of the U.S. Senate—including a special election in Oklahoma—is on the schedule.
36 of the nation’s 50 states have gubernatorial elections on the schedule. This includes 9 of the nation’s Top 10 most-populous states. (Exception is North Carolina.) This includes New Hampshire and Vermont, the only two states whose governor terms are for a period of two, rather than four, years.
The October 24, 2022 Progressives Chat blog topic covered enough of my overall predictions—although it focused on U.S. House and U.S. Senate (not so much for U.S. Governors)—that I don’t feel the need to do that again with this week’s topic.
If available, I will post in comments any updates occurring on Election Night. Any readers wanting to do the same are certainly welcome.
I have the ballot for the general election for the 2022 midterm elections.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 8, 2022.
From my home state, Michigan, and from the state’s website, a resident can access an unofficial copy of the ballot. I will include screenshots of two pivotal areas: the first is for the partisan section of the statewide-elected races (Governor—yes! U.S. Senate—not on this year’s schedule—no!); the second is for ballot proposals.
I find it interesting which parties made the ballot. (And, of course, which parties did not.)
I am not impressed with the ballot proposals.
I have a local-related ballot proposal on which I will vote. So, my ballot will get returned. In the meantime…
Thanks to a number of reasons, including developing changes in most recent poll reports, as well as an apparent trendline by Likely Voters (who, as Election Day draws closer, are now of mind to really make up their minds), I can now make a prediction for the 2022 midterm elections.
The White House opposition Republican Party will win 2022 majority-control pickups for both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate.
(Above is the 2022 U.S. Senate map. This is Class #03. Those in white are not scheduled. Solid shades are for likely party holds. Light shades are for party pickups.)
The catalyst for this is: Inflation. This is the No. 1 issue—and it is certainly national—for the midterm elections of 2022. That this is occurring on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden. That the Democrats currently have control of both houses of Congress. (I would also suggest that the Democrats’s push for a possible nuclear war may also be a key issue.)
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has been showing, over the last week, an estimated percentage of likelihood for control of the U.S. Senate has moved from 36 to 40 to 41 to 44 and, as of Sunday [October 23, 2022], 45 percent for the Republicans. (In other words: Check daily for further movement.) Even Nate Silver himself wrote his own piece, “Why I’m Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Tossup.” (That is a nice of way of not specifically writing, “It is 50/50.”) I certainly appreciate Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter’s recent piece, “Historically, Toss Up Races Break Decidedly Toward One Party.”
The general election—in two weeks—is scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2022.
Before last week, it appeared the 2022 Republicans would win majority pickup for the U.S. House—which has always been the case—but the White House Democratic Party would hold the U.S. Senate. This was attributed to the Republicans potentially failing to hold Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is currently in the Republican column for retiring Pat Toomey. Nominee Mehmet “Dr.” Oz, above left, is no seasoned professional campaigner. He has been lackluster. He has been silly. But with enough wind, nationally, going against Joe Biden and his White House Democratic Party is why this electoral wizardry can happen. So Oz’s Democratic challenger, lieutenant governor John Fetterman, is seeing his previously comfortable lead, in effect for several months, dissipate. This race, highly related to a national wind, is trending toward Oz.
John Fetterman, 53, suffered a stroke several months ago. For some: His abilities are in question. But, even if Fetterman had not experienced his stroke, and even if his party’s nomination would have gone instead to corporate-appealing congressman Conor Lamb, this would likely produce the same result.
The last three midterm elections in which the U.S. Senate flipped to the White House opposition party were in 1994, 2006, and 2014. The White House party, in each cycle, failed to counter-flip any opposition-party-held seats. (Last exception: 1986.) A 2022 Republican majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate should logically begin with retaining all party-held seats before winning pickups.
Where I sense the Republicans will flip—and get their tipping-point 51st U.S. Senate seat—is Nevada.
In 2022 Nevada, Republican nominee—and 2018 gubernatorial nominee—Adam Laxalt is poised to unseat Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto.
In 2016, Catherine Cortez Masto was the handpicked candidate by predecessor and former majority leader Harry Reid. But she had a major electoral flaw no other Democrat has had, in almost 15 years, in statewide Nevada: She failed to carry Washoe County.
Washoe County’s county seat is Reno. It and Clark County (Las Vegas) are the two most-populous counties in Nevada. They combine for nearly 85 percent of the state’s population. When Barack Obama won his Democratic pickup of the presidency in 2008, and one of his pickup states was Nevada, he flipped and carried Washoe County…and became the first from his party to carry it since 1964 Lyndon Johnson. Since 2008 Obama, Washoe County has been in the column for his re-election (in 2012) as well as for Hillary Clinton (2016) and Joe Biden (2020). This also applies to winning U.S. Senate Democrats Harry Reid (2010) and Jackie Rosen (who unseated Republican incumbent Dean Heller in 2018). Washoe County also carried for 2018 Democratic gubernatorial pickup winner Steve Sisolak. For a Democrat to win Nevada’s two most-populous counties…that renders a Republican unlikely to prevail statewide.
The 2016 U.S. Senate election in Nevada saw Catherine Cortez Masto win with a raw-vote margin of +26,915. (She won Clark County by +82,445 raw votes. Republican nominee Joe Heck carried Washoe County by +1,683 raw votes.) Just over 1 million votes were cast statewide. This makes the 2022 Democratic incumbent vulnerable to a loss.
In a friendly-to-your-party electoral environment, it is not difficult to make up these numbers. It also helps 2022 Republicans that Nevada Democrats are not popular. (This was covered in a recent Breaking Points segment.) Nevada may lose one of its current delegation of 3–1 U.S. House seats. (Cook Political Report has two of its districts rated as Tossups.) Nevada Democrats are also vulnerable to losing their party-held governorship. (Although I am not including gubernatorial predictions, in this blog topic, I am leaning to predicting that outcome.)
The path to winning Nevada for 2022 Republican nominee Adam Laxalt is this: increase 2016-to-2022 Republican performance in Washoe County; lower the 2016-to-2022 Democratic margins in Clark County; and send the 2016-to-2022 raw-vote numbers in the rest of the state’s counties—all in the 2016 Republican column—further north. This would, mathematically, be enough to deliver the state to Laxalt; deliver it in a Republican pickup; and with Pennsylvania a 2022 Republican hold, this would deliver new majority control for the U.S. Senate to the Republicans.
This would not be all up to Adam Laxalt. Credit would also go to the voters in Nevada. If they want to make this happen—that they don’t want the Democrats to retain their current level of electoral power—they will especially be the ones who deliver.
I consider this scenario—holding Pennsylvania and flipping Nevada—to be the 2022 Republicans’s path to winning new majority control for the U.S. Senate. This is before giving further consideration to the race in Georgia between Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock (a pickup winner, from a special election, in 2020) and Republican challenger and former pro-football star Herschel Walker. That particular race, in a state which requires 50 percent, may not be decided on Election Day. A runoff would be scheduled for Tuesday, December 6, 2022. And it is there that Walker may become best-positioned to unseat Warnock and deliver a 52nd seat to a majority-pickup-winning Republican Party. If it turns out to be even worse for 2022 U.S. Senate Democrats, they are vulnerable to a loss with Republican nominee Blake Masters potentially unseating Mark Kelly for a 53rd seat in Arizona. (I lean toward predicting narrow re-election for Kelly. But, due to national circumstances, I have to rate it a Tossup.)
I can give a breakdown on some details based on historic pattern.
The 17th Amendment, which allows direct elections of U.S. senators by the states’s voting citizens, dates back to the 1910s.
The midterm elections of 1914 to 2018 numbered 104 years and 27 such cycles. The White House opposition party won the overall net gains—combining U.S. House and U.S. Senate—in 24 of those cycles. Of these 24 cycles, there were 8 in which the U.S. House flipped to the White House opposition party. Of these 8 cycles, there were 3 in which the U.S. House but not the U.S. Senate flipped to the opposition party. (They occurred in 1930, 2010, and 2018.) The remaining 5 resulted in both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate having flipped to the opposition party. (They occurred in 1918, 1946, 1954, 1994, and 2006.)
When the White House opposition party established new majorities, their percentages of seats—for both houses—have tended to be a close correlation. In each case, the newly re-empowered opposition party established a higher percentage of U.S. House than U.S. Senate seats. And, for comparison, there has typically been no greater than 4 percent.
Here were those past results:
• The 1918 Republicans, beginning in 1919, established 55.17% (for 240 of 435 seats) in the U.S. House and 51.04% (for 49 of 96 seats) in the U.S. Senate.
• The 1946 Republicans (on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Harry Truman), beginning in 1947, established 56.55% (for 246 of 435) seats in the U.S. House and 53.12% (for 51 of 96) seats in the U.S. Senate.
• The 1954 Democrats, beginning in 1955, established 53.33% (for 232 of 435 seats) in the U.S. House and 51.04% (for 49 of 96 seats) in the U.S. Senate. (For these 1918, 1946, and 1954 U.S. Senate seats, at 96, keep in mind Alaska and Hawaii had not yet become the 49th and 50th states admitted into the union.)
• The 1994 Republicans, beginning in 1995, established 52.87% (for 230 of 435 seats) in the U.S. House and 52% (for 52 of 100 seats) in the U.S. Senate.
• The 2006 Democrats, beginning in 2007, established 53.56% (for 233 of 435 seats) in the U.S. House and 51% (for 51 of 100 seats) in the U.S. Senate.
Considering these outcomes, the historic averages for the numbers and percentages of seats were:
• U.S. House: 234.625 seats and 53.93 percent of seats
• U.S. Senate: 51.63 percentage of seats
I get the sense the 2022 Republicans, with majority-control pickups for both houses of Congress, will establish close to the historic averages with the following beginning in January 2023:
• U.S. House: 235 to 244 seats. (This would be 54 to 56 percent of the seats.)
• U.S. Senate: 51 to 53 seats. (This would be 51 to 53 percent of the seats.)
Look for these potential outcomes in the four separate states of the regulars here at Progressives Chat:
• Missouri (TowerofBabel): The state is solidly aligned to the Republicans since George W. Bush’s 2000 Republican pickup of the presidency and Missouri. A national Republican wave would mean solidifying party-level support in this state. (Republican shifts as well in nearly all states.) Now-retiring Roy Blunt’s last re-election to the U.S. Senate, in 2016, was by a low +2.79 percentage points. (This occurred while Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump carried the state by +18.51.) So, 2022 nominee Eric Schmitt should experience a conspicuously higher margin. (FiveThirtyEight recently estimated +18. It can go higher.)
• Oregon (cathyx): I sense Republicans will win a pickup of the governorship—specifically for nominee Christine Drazan—and this would be the first for the party since 1982. The party will flip the state’s 5th Congressional District. Thanks to the 2020 U.S. Census Bureau’s report including changes with populations, Oregon has gained +1 congressional district (and likewise electoral vote). Pre-2022, the state’s U.S. House delegation is 4–1 in favor of the Democrats. Post-2022, I estimate an outcome of 4–2. This would change the percentage of Oregon’s Democratic-held U.S. House seats from 80 to 66 percent. The only likely Democratic hold, at this point, is re-election to the U.S. Senate for Ron Wyden.
• Wisconsin (The_Fixer): Nowdays one of the nation’s best bellwether states—and the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections’s tipping-point state—Wisconsin should well-reflect overall 2022 national outcomes. In this respect, I think it will not disappoint. The state’s Republican incumbent and senior U.S. senator, Ron Johnson, will win re-election. (His margin will likely be more comfortable than what numerous polls had reported.) The state’s 3rd Congressional District (retiring Democratic incumbent Ron Kind) will flip Republican. That will change Wisconsin’s U.S. House delegation from 5–3 to 6–2 in favor of the Republicans. This would change the percentage of the state’s U.S. House delegation, favoring the Republicans, from 62.50 to 75 percent. Like with the 2022 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election, Wisconsin’s gubernatorial election is a Dead Heat. If much of the estimated outcomes play out, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers may become unseated by Republican challenger Tim Michels. (That race is a tough call.)
• Michigan (Candy83): In the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020, and the midterm elections of 2018, Michigan well-matched its popular vote with the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House. (For 2020, it was the one pickup state, for U.S. President, to best-match its statewide margin vs. the national.) The Republicans don’t have the gubernatorial nominee, in Tudor Dixon, it needs to unseat Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer. (The best would have been former Detroit police chief James Craig. He, like numerous other Republican candidates, was rejected ballot access for the primaries due to the state determining numerous, submitted signatures were fake.) Whitmer—a 2018 Democratic pickup winner with a statewide margin of +9.56 (north of +400,000 raw votes)—is likely to win re-election with lower margins. (Some polls suggest this race could become tighter and change to a Tossup.) Michigan also lost –1 congressional district (and likewise electoral vote). Pre-2022, its U.S. House delegation is an Even 7–7. I sense it will change to 7–6 (perhaps even 8-5) in favor of the Republicans. Cook Political Report rates the state’s 7th Congressional District (Democratic incumbent and CIA agent Elissa Slotkin) a Tossup. The state’s 3rd Congressional District (which includes Kent County and its county seat Grand Rapids) is generally trending Democratic—it flipped in 2018 for Gretchen Whitmer and a re-elected U.S. senator Debbie Stabenow and in 2020 for Joe Biden (and it votes in presidential elections like Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District)—has been targeted by the DCCC in its Red-to-Blue strategy. This is the district of Peter Meijer, a family member of the Meijer stores, who was ousted in the Republican primaries by John Gibbs who, as it turned out, received campaign money from the Democrats. This may turn out to be, like with Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, another Pied Piper strategy gone wrong.
It was 40 years ago, with the timing in September and October 1982, which marked the Tylenol Murders.
This case, which is officially not solved, happened in and around Chicago, Illinois.
Bottles of Tylenol Extra Strength, at which time were in capsule form, were tampered with and injected with cyanide.
The Tylenol Murders claimed the lives of seven, including three family members (two who later took from the same bottle belonging to the deceased first), and it required detective-like work by nurse Helen Jensen—after those family members died—to figure out it was the pills. (She worked the case with now-retired Chuck Kramer, now 81, at which time he was a fire department lieutenant in Arlington Heights.) All the victims, including one child, were under the age of 40. As now-retired Jensen, now 85, tells it: Her theory was initially dismissed. “I went back to the emergency room, presented it [the theory of that particular bottle of Tylenol pills being poisoned] to the medical examiner and the police, and they laughed at me.” Jensen also described the case as follows: “It was probably one of the first acts of domestic terrorism.”
I was 11 years old. My sense of this, at the time, was a panic which had people—from everywhere—figuring this could happen anywhere. (It did quite a hit job on the business of Johnson & Johnson. The manufacturer recalled more than 30 million bottles.)
My late paternal grandmother, who regularly watched local and network news, would often say, for any news reports involving destructive and sickening crimes, “What is this world coming to?”
With the timing on the calendar closely connected to Halloween, this also changed—to some extent—how parents handled allowing their children to celebrate the holiday; whether to continue their neighborhood Trick-or-Treating tradition for its intended fun…and for the candy. (Frankly: It was even before 1982. The 1981 film sequel Halloween II includes a scene of a boy taken to the hospital by his mother because he came in contact with a tampered product.)
One thing good came from this: It changed the industry for the ways it packages over-the-counter medicines and other products.
There is a podcast (to which I will not provide a link; it came to my attention only shortly before having completed writing and setting this blog topic to publish), and it is titled Unsealed: The Tylenol Murders (AT WILL MEDIA, The Chicago Tribune). I have not yet listened to it. It has several episodes. I intend to check out, at the very minimum, its first.
I encourage interested readers to not only watch the above video, which is a news segment by CBS Chicago (WBBM–TV, Ch. 02), but to also read some material which follows this paragraph (for some more general information).
Last week marked the fifth anniversary of Progressives Chat.
This week, I will give my two-cents on where progressives—actual progressives—are at here in 2022.
I will also mention where I am at.
The Democratic Party Establishment succeeded in having defeated the actual progressives electorally and politically. For the time being. Electorally—certainly. Politically—yes, as well, but not in a way which is guaranteed to be permanent. (That cannot be guaranteed.)
Politics, like life, is continuous. All the election cycles one may experience in one’s lifetime—no matter the type of election cycle (presidential; midterm)—is not the last given election that will ever be. Despite the hyperbole, from whomever and from one election cycle to the next, that it is not reality. That is not history. That is not life.
The Democrats have won three of the last four United States presidential elections. The history indicates this is an example of being in a realigning period. That, since 2008, a Democratic pickup year for Barack Obama, we are in a realigning period in which the presidency is with the Democrats. That this will play out for at least 70 percent of this given period, which began in 2008, and will run for 30-plus years. The last four cycles—2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—have been the inverse of what occurred 40 years prior. The Republicans, with a realignment favoring them beginning in 1968, a Republican pickup year for Richard Nixon, won three of four through 1980. The Democratic win was in 1976 with Jimmy Carter, from that period, as has this period’s Republican win came in 2016 with Donald Trump. And, for another parallel, the nation’s citizens and voting electorate wanted a 1980 Carter out just like they did with a 2020 Trump.
I was born in 1971. Richard Nixon was U.S. president. The Republican Party was dominant especially during my childhood (when they won four of five cycles during the 1970s and 1980s). The Democratic Party was considered the joke. That is, if you think of the presidency of the United States as the measurement of worthiness. The be-all, end-all. (And there are people who do.) Now, 40 years later, it’s the opposite—that the Republican Party is considered the joke.
While it is good to know the score, or at least be able to keep track as best as one can ask of himself, it doesn’t mean much if you are being left behind.
The Democrats, in their current form, are doing just that. In last year’s gubernatorial election in Virginia, the No. 12 most-populous state in the nation, and which realigned to the Democrats for U.S. President beginning in 2008, the electoral outcome was a Republican pickup for Glenn Youngkin. (The Democrats nearly lost the governorship of New Jersey, the nation’s No. 11 most-populous state.) Following that result, in Virginia, Substack’s Shant Mesrobian tweeted the following:
Even with that predictable result, it is (has been) intentional. For example: With the abortion issue, and the Democrats not codifying into law the U.S. Supreme Court’s 1973 decision on Roe v. Wade, I noted in a 2022 blog topic, ‘Since 1912’, that this was intended by the Democrats. Meaning: I don’t buy into any attempt by Loyal Democratic Voters to excuse or explain away the Democratic Party, which they predictably do when they respond to criticisms and failures, for what I recognize is (has been) intentional.
The Democrats, in their current form, are now as follows: They rig their primaries; they are McCarthyites; they wanted to force vaccinations; and they are for censorship.
The Loyal Democratic Voters, in their current form, are reminding me of the presidency of a 2000s George W. Bush and that period’s Loyal Republican Voters. Here in the 2020s, the Loyal Democratic Voters have no concern for what is coming out of the Joe Biden presidential administration. They have no concern for what is needed for people and for this country. They simply want to…belong. To belong to their party. And they want everybody to back their party. They are on a team—Team Blue. That whenever an election is coming up—and federal elections are scheduled every year—they want their team to win. They will never tell you precisely what they figure they will win or, if their team prevailed, did win. (They are not able.)
When I think about this blog, Progressives Chat, and that the five-year anniversary of its launch has passed…I want to state what has been forgotten by some. (Not here; but elsewhere.) It calls for going back to…basics.
I voted the 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential nomination to Bernie Sanders not because I personally adore (adored) the man. I voted for him because of the vision he had was one which best-matched with what I recognized is necessary. (I am not alone.)
Leading on policy issues has (had) been Medicare for All. That has (had) been followed by a federal minimum wage of at least $15 per hour. That it is (was) followed by making college tuition free.
Approximately 50 percent of the nation’s people, who have employment, are earning $35,000 or less per year. (Gross income.) We have not only an income problem…we have an insufficient income problem. People are underpaid. It is not just a problem but a crisis.
We also have an infrastructure problem. I am referring to the infrastructure for traveling. For getting around. That our current system is decades behind.
The biggest problem we have is that our government is bought and sold. Everything you can name that is an issue and which is actually solvable—like reallocating the federal budget and allocating to where that money is needed—gets blocked. It gets blocked, for one, in favor of incessant wars. One war followed by the next.
The U.S. has had the money—as it does now—to: end poverty; to bring people’s incomes in line with this current period in history; to deliver a healthcare and health-insurance system (that does not take apart people financially); to make college tuition free; to modernize our traveling infrastructure; and more.
Where we are at, with what I pointed out, and what else may be considered, is (has been) intended.
Now I am going to mention what I am intending:
With the 2022 midterm elections scheduled for next month—on Tuesday, November 8, 2022—I will do the following (before I do anything more or else): I will not vote for any person who is affiliated with the Democratic Party.
My last vote for anyone on Team Blue was with the midterm elections of 2014. It was Year #06 of the presidency of Barack Obama. The primaries were rigged in 2016—not just against Bernie Sanders but also against every person who voted the presidential nomination to Bernie Sanders—and, so, I denied all of Team Blue my general-election votes that year. I followed suit with the midterm elections of 2018. And, in 2020, I did not vote because my father was in the final weeks of his life and, frankly, had the timings occurred separately I would have completely rejected the Democratic Party anyway.
I have written and posted plenty on electoral politics. I follow simply because I like to be aware for as much I can ask of myself. I am also intrigued with the topic of realignment. Not just electoral realignments; but also political realignments.
Realignments involve, among numerous factors, changes in voting patterns. I am aware that my own voting pattern is possibly realigning. That I am realigning away from the Democrats. Given the fact that, post-2014, three consecutive election cycles—two presidential and one midterm—have passed; and that I will also be denying Team Blue in this year’s midterms (which would make it four cycles in a row); it is likely I am (or have) realigning (realigned); that this is accurate—even if I wasn’t always conscious of this.
I do not trust, and I do not respect, the Democratic Party. So, as the general election draws closer, and this week is five weeks out, there will be more people reminding us…they are with Team Blue. The ones who are most interesting, at least to me, are those online content creators who have been leading on their audiences to tell them they are progressives. That group of content creators, in reality, will do what they can to get their viewers to…Vote Blue [No Matter Who; No Matter What]. They are not progressives. They are…Democrats. They will do this while Joe Biden has—and, as a reminder, [‘Since 2012’] it is (has been) intended—not delivered on any policy issue they have claimed is important to them. There will be some humor to that con job, to prop up a so-called political party which is a scam operation, and that can provide someone who generally has a good sense of humor with some entertainment. When it comes to who I am willing to take seriously, I have tuned out those people.
I have strengthened my resolve.
Throughout the majority of 2022, with nine months now having passed, I have received plenty of communications from the Democratic Party. I have responded to none. If anyone tries to contact me by phone, as Election Day approaches, and I do not recognize the number, I will not take that call. (That is, after all, what many do—and it is what many recommend others do—for one’s own sake.) After Election Day has passed, I will refer to text and e-mail messages and block those contacts.
I am rejecting the Democratic Party. The entirety of the Democratic Party. I am doing so for understandable, and even responsible, reasons. (Not that any person is required to explain one’s votes.) While I already stated four key reason, the bottom line is this: The Democratic Party has earned it.
I have not necessarily realigned my voting elsewhere. I don’t feel I have to be voting between the two major U.S. political parties. I also do not feel like I must participate by voting in this year’s midterm elections. At the same time, I don’t want to leave this blog topic with any misunderstanding. I do not want readers to conclude that I am lately perceiving both major U.S. political parties to be totally equal to each other in their current forms. (They are not.) One of the two has: rigged their primaries; does McCarthyism; attempted to force people to become vaccinated; and is for censorship. The other major party did not do any of that.
Five Years Later…
The ball is now in the court for Team Red. I have closed the door on Team Blue. (I dismiss them.) If the Republicans are interested…I will hear and consider them. They will, of course, have to earn my vote (votes). And if they continue losing at the presidential level, because in part we are in a realigning period for the Democrats, and also in part because the GOP are lost, then the Republicans may find themselves experiencing and even facilitating numerous changes that a lot of today’s people—including their current party insiders—may not anticipate or expect. The two major U.S. political parties, both in existence longer than 150 years, have not always remained the same throughout history. My door is open.
Sunday, September 25, 2022 marked the five-year anniversary of the launch of Progressives Chat.
I appreciate this as well as this site’s regulars. (A thank-you, again, for helping me goes to cathyx.)
It would be rather lacking for me to not reflect on how I am feeling nowadays, five years in, given there is so much which has happened leading up to this current time. So, I will do that. Next week.
Last week was the Emmys. This week, a new season begins. The 2022–23 television season—well, certainly for the broadcast networks—will start on the same date as this blog topic. (A given week runs Monday through the following Sunday. That is, for the network television with its week-to-week schedule as well as the ratings, advertisements, and such.) And I will admit: I have not made a point to look into the newbies for this now-official 2022–23 season to see what I may want to check out. I am not being generally dismissive. I am simply, by comparison to when I was younger, not making a point to keep up. However, I am reminded, here in 2022, that the start of this new 2022–23 television season is coincidentally timed with numerous milestone anniversaries of past series—many which I appreciated—for when they premiered. The following are: videos, from my YouTube page (set to Public), for each listed series’s main-theme music and credits; and some notable information on listed productions (key cast members, particularly with series leads, and their premiere dates). When considering this, it can feel amazing (note the coincidental date of 09.16.1972) that all this time has passed.
• The Bob Newhart Show (CBS), the fresh comedy about working spouses—one a psychiatrist who has colorful patients—who do not have children but keep plenty of company; starring Bob Newhart and Suzanne Pleshette (who who received two Emmy nominations for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series); series premiered 09.16.1972
• Bridget Loves Bernie (CBS), the No. 5 season-ranked among all 1972–73 series; it was created by Oscar- and Tony-nominated playwright Bernard Slade (Same Time Next Year); it was canceled after its first season (due to its controversy of the mixed backgrounds of its lead characters in a romantic comedy); starring pre-marrieds David Birney and Meredith Baxter (its only surviving cast member); 09.16.1972
• The Julie Andrews Hour (ABC), acclaimed variety series (and the winner of the 1972–73 Emmy in that category); starring the 1964 Best Actress Oscar winning star of Mary Poppins; 09.13.1972
• Kung Fu (ABC), the Emmy winner for directing in drama and multi-nominated series, set in the American Old West; it starred an Emmy-nominated David Carradine; its pilot [movie] was broadcast 02.22.1972 and its series premiered 10.14.1972
• M*A*S*H (CBS), starring Emmy-winning Alan Alda (with co-lead roles played by Wayne Rogers, in its first three seasons and, with the rest of its eleven seasons, Mike Farrell); developed by Larry Gelbart (from Robert Altman’s Oscar-winning 1970 film to a multi-Emmy-winning small-screen sitcom awarded Outstanding Comedy Series in 1974); series premiered 09.17.1972
• Maude (CBS), created by Norman Lear and Bud York; starring the 1966 Tony-winning costar of the musical Mame, Beatrice Arthur (who won the 1977 Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series), and Bill Macy; following the top character’s introduction on All in the Family (“Cousin Maude’s Visit,” 12.11.1971, with backdoor pilot episode “Maude,” 03.11.1972); series premiered 09.12.1972
• The Rookies (ABC, which was rebooted to its current version in 2018), with Georg Stanford Brown (future Emmy-winning director for CBS’s Cagney & Lacey which starred his then-wife, and Emmy winner, Tyne Daly), Sam Melville, and Michael Ontkean (who would leave after two seasons and be replaced by Bruce Fairbairn); costarring was pre-Charlie’s Angels’s Kate Jackson (who reunited with Ontkean in 1982’s controversial film Making Love); as a pilot [movie] 03.07.1972 and with its series premiere 09.11.1972
• The Streets of San Francisco (ABC), from well-recognized Quinn Martin Productions; a multi-Emmy-nominated detective drama—filmed on location (according to series title)—starring Oscar and Emmy winner and 27th president of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences Karl Malden; backed in support by future Oscar and Emmy winner Michael Douglas (who departed the series in its final season and was replaced by a pre-Battlestar Gallactica Richard Hatch); 09.16.1972
• The Waltons (CBS), the historical drama created by Earl Hammer Jr., set in rural Virginia during the Great Depression and World War II periods; starring Richard Thomas, Ralph Waite, and Michael Learned—and costarring Oscar nominee Ellen Corby and Will Geer (both having won Emmys for the series)—following the Emmy-nominated TV film The Homecoming: A Christmas Story, 12.19.1971. It was the big Emmy winner for its debut season (Outstanding Drama Series and Lead acting wins for Thomas and eventual four-time winner Learned). Series premiered 09.14.1972
(Above is video from the first episode of ABC’s The Julie Andrews Hour. Prior to getting this blog topic completed and published, I had not seen a YouTube video with just its theme. I could not include that with the prior videos. So, please consider this one to be a bonus.)
• Cheers (NBC), the comedy among friends in a Boston, Massachusetts bar owned by a former Red Sox player; with Ted Danson and Shelley Long (who left after five seasons and was replaced by Kirstie Alley for the remainder of its run); four-time Emmy winner for Outstanding Comedy Series—with a combined four Emmys for its leads—over a period of eleven seasons (and a ten-year time parallel following CBS’s M*A*S*H; they overlapped with the 1982–83 season); series premiered 09.30.1982
• Newhart (CBS), with Bob Newhart and Mary Frann; scene-stealing and Emmy-nominated supporting cast members Julia Duffy and Peter Solari joined the series in its second and third seasons; 10.25.1982
• Remington Steele (NBC), a detective series mixing drama with humor; starring Stephanie Zimbalist and Pierce Brosnan; 10.01.1982
• St. Elsewhere (NBC), the multi-Emmy-winning and unique hospital drama created by Joshua Brand and John Falsey; starring Tony and Emmy winner Ed Flanders (who left the series in its sixth and final season and was replaced by Ronny Cox), David Birney (who was written out after its first season and replaced by Norman Lloyd), and future 25th president of the Screen Actors Guild of America William Daniels; it costarred future Oscar and Tony winner Denzel Washington; 10.26.1982
• The Ben Stiller Show (Fox), variety series and winner of a writing Emmy (in its genre) which was canceled after 13 episodes and one season (perhaps it was ahead of its time); it featured Andy Dick, Janeane Garofalo (at which time she was also a cast member on HBO’s The Larry Sanders Show, which premiered 08.15.1992), and future Better Call Saul’s Bob Odenkirk; series premiered 09.27.1992
• Hangin’ with Mr. Cooper (ABC), with Mark Curry, Dawnn Lewis (who left the series after its first season due to change in direction and was replaced by Saundra Quarterman), and Holly Robinson [Peete]; Lewis (who cowrote the theme to NBC’s A Different World) and Robinson Peete co-sang the first season’s opening theme with then-sensation R&B group En Vogue; 09.22.1992
• Mad About You (NBC), a romantic comedy about a married couple played by Paul Reiser (who co-created the series with Danny Jacobson) and Helen Hunt; during its eight seasons, Hunt won four Lead Actress Emmys for the series and the 1997 Oscar for Best Actress in As Good As It Gets; 09.23.1992
• Picket Fences (CBS), a David E. Kelley creation and multi-Emmy-winning drama—it won the Big Three in its first season (Outstanding Drama Series, Actor, and Actress)—which was based in a fictional, low-population Wisconsin location, Rome, and addressed timely, real-world issues; starring Emmy winners Tom Skerritt and Kathy Baker; 09.18.1992
• Ally McBeal (Fox), a David E. Kelley creation with Calista Flockhart in the title role; a rare one-hour comedy series which won the top Emmy (in 1999) for its genre; series premiered 09.08.1997
• Brooklyn South (CBS), a collaborative effort by Steven Bochco (with numerous of his partners from ABC’s then-current NYPD Blue); with top-billed Jon Tenney (then-husband of Teri Hatcher); a 1997–98 Emmy winner for directing in drama (for its pilot episode); 09.22.1997
• Veronica’s Closet (NBC); co-created by Friends’s David Crane and Marta Kauffman; with Kirstie Alley as the owner of a lingerie company; and an opening theme performed by Jeffrey Osborne; 09.25.1997
The season’s biggest freshman hit, certainly with lasting power, and appearing last in the above related video, turned out not to be from the broadcast networks. It was Comedy Central’s outrageous animated comedy South Park, created by Tony, Grammy, and Emmy winners Trey Parker (also an Oscar-nominee for the song “Blame Canada” from its 1999 film) and Matt Stone. The series premiered 08.13.1997.
A number of these noted seasons also had standout midseason freshmen. Their debut seasons were likewise Emmy-eligible. The 1972–73 season also marked the premiere of Barnaby Jones (CBS), starring Buddy Ebsen (and costarring an Emmy-nominated Lee Meriwether), on 01.28.1973.… The 1982–83 season also marked the debuts of two acclaimed and Emmy-nominated comedies (but on for two seasons): Buffalo Bill (NBC), with Dabney Coleman and Joanna Cassidy, on 06.01.1983; and Goodnight, Beantown (CBS), which paired Bill Bixby and an Emmy-nominated Mariette Hartley, on 04.03.1983.… The 1992–93 season also marked the debuts of: Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman (CBS), set in Colorado’s past and with a two-time Emmy-nominated Jane Seymour in the title role, on 01.01.1993; Homicide: Life on the Street (NBC), a police procedural which won both directing (1988 Oscar winner for Rain Man Barry Levinson) and writing Emmys for its debut season, and with an ensemble cast which included future Oscar and Emmy winner Melissa Leo and 1998 Emmy winner for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series Andre Braugher, on 01.31.1993; and MTV’s bold Beavis and Butt–Head, created by Mike Judge, with its pilot on 09.22.1992 and with its first season on 03.08.1993.… The 1997–98 season also marked the debut of Dawson’s Creek (The WB), a coming-of-age drama starring James Van Der Beek in the title role with other key roles played by Katie Holmes, Joshua Jackson, and future Oscar and Tony nominee and Emmy winner Michelle Williams, on 01.20.1998.
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| Abbott Elementary’s Quinta Brunson, front row center, Chris Perfetti, left, and Tyler James Williams; back row, left to right: Sheryl Lee Ralph, Janelle James, and Lisa Ann Walter |
The 74th Emmy Awards will be broadcast live, on NBC, Monday, September 12, 2022.
This is for prime-time television achievements for the previous 2021–22 season.
After nominations came out in July, and with an awareness for some established series—as well as ones with their first seasons—having been well-received, I decided to spend some time in July and August catching up by streaming their seasons—especially with 2021–22 television season. I figure, “It’s not a bad idea to see what I think. And I may have been falling behind and missing out [to some extent].”
2021–22 nominations for Outstanding Drama Series: Better Call Saul (AMC); Euphoria (HBO); Ozark (Netflix); Severance (Apple TV+); Squid Game (Netflix); Stranger Things (Netflix); Succession (HBO); Yellowjackets (Showtime).
2021–22 nominations for Outstanding Comedy Series: Abbott Elementary (ABC); Barry (HBO); Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); Hacks (HBO Max); The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon Prime Video); Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Ted Lasso (Apple TV+); What We Do in the Shadows (FX).
This is a total of 16 productions which comprise the nominations in their respective genre’s top category. Frankly, I did not have that much time. As one who follows the entertainment awards website GoldDerby, I was able to ascertain which ones appear in position to win. I took on three each from drama and comedy for a total of six. (By the way: I trust readers do not need me to explain, in general, what each series is about.)
In drama, I had previously watched the first two seasons of past Emmy champ Succession. It won with its second season in 2020. Its third season aired during Fall 2021. I also took on freshmen Squid Game and Severance.
In comedy, I first went with Hacks and, soon afterward, followed it with last year’s winner Ted Lasso. And then I viewed the freshman Abbott Elementary.
For the 2021–22 season, no matter the respective outcomes of the Emmys, my preferences turned out to be: Squid Game and Abbott Elementary.
They both have in common this: They are about unjust economics in terrible systems which weigh down people. What they also have in common is that they are highly relevant to this current period in history. Last year I wrote and published, here at Progressives Chat, a topic on Squid Game: ‘Why has [“Squid Game”] resonated with a global audience?’. I can simply add that that series is innovative and daring. So, I will move on to Abbott Elementary.
Abbott Elementary is about an underfunded school in west Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Its protagonist is second-grade teacher Janine Teagues, played by series creator and executive producer Quinta Brunson, who must navigate the system. Her colleagues include thirty-year, kindergarten teacher Barbara Howard (Sheryl Lee Ralph); fellow second-grade teacher Melissa Schemmenti (Lisa Ann Walter); and fellow instructor Jacob Hill (Chris Perfetti), who hired at the same time as Janine. Joining them is substitute teacher Gregory Eddie (Tyler James Williams), who continues with the first-grade students after one of them made their previous teacher flip. And the school also has the not-qualified principal Ava Coleman (Janelle James).
Abbott Elementary is a comedy which has many reminded of NBC Emmy-winning The Office. It is single camera and has a mockumentary style. But that isn’t enough to describe Abbott Elementary. It is, frankly, a workplace comedy in a school setting. It is a remarkable series with superb performances (with nominations for Brunson, Williams, James, and Ralph). It has interesting, distinct characters. These characters are smart. They are relatable. They have depth. They also evolve. Even the principal, who is inappropriate and vain, proves to be creative and capable.
Abbott Elementary, which debuted as a preview on December 7, 2021 before it continued in January 2022, has a thirteen-episode count with its first season. (The season-two premiere is scheduled for next Wednesday, September 21, 2022.) The pilot, by Brunson, and which is nominated for Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series, is one of the best of any series I have seen in years. Streaming and viewing the first season, available on both Hulu and HBO Max, was an absolute pleasure.
Given my preferences for Squid Game and Abbott Elementary, the following question may be asked: Will they win? They both can. But, many on the site GoldDerby figure Succession will win its second statue in drama. (I don’t disagree.) I sense part of this is because actors love the series’ material—and they want to act that kind of material—as it evokes a King Lear-like figure who has adult children and, constantly, they play power games. At the same time, that back and forth reminds me of Wile E. Coyote and the Road Runner. In comedy, I actually think Abbott Elementary will prevail. Over the last month, momentum has built for it. This suggests a rally of support to have it finish on top. There was the Television Critics Association (‘Abbott Elementary is the golden child of TV critics, scoring 4 wins at the TCA Awards’), which prized it with four, including not only Outstanding Achievement in Comedy but also Program of the Year. It also won from the Hollywood Critics Association TV Awards (‘HCA TV Awards: “White Lotus,” “Abbott Elementary,” “Better Call Saul” Lead Winners’). What may be the best precursor came from the two-night, September 4 and 5, Creative Arts Emmys. Abbott Elementary won the 2021–22 Emmy for Outstanding Casting for a Comedy Series (specifically awarded to Wendy O’Brien). Since 2015, the prevailing series with that award went on to win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series. This began with HBO’s Veep, starring Julia Louis–Dreyfuss, which also won in 2016 and 2017. The last four years’s winners, with both, were for separate series: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, in 2018; Amazon Prime Video’s Fleabag, in 2019; Pop’s Schitt’s Creek, in 2020; and Ted Lasso, in 2021. I sense this pattern will continue, here in 2022, as a series Emmy for Abbott Elementary would be well-earned.
Here are some published-to-YouTube videos, including two trailers, for ABC’s Abbott Elementary:
