Merry Christmas 2023!

[Extended] Holiday Break

Beginning this week, I will be taking a four-week break from writing and publishing blog topics which are specific to politics or other content (such as the recent weeks’s worth of “Flashbacks” to past historical events).

Two of these weeks—December 25, 2023 and January 1, 2024—are holidays which fall on a Monday. So, those topic threads will simply acknowledge each holiday—Christmas and New Year’s Day—and they have been scheduled to publish with the arrival of each date at 12:00 a.m. ET. (Other blog topics will publish, as regularly scheduled, at 06:00 a.m. ET.)

The weeks applicable for this “[Extended] Holiday Break” are [Mondays,] December 18 and 25, 2023 as well as January 1 and 8, 2024. (The last week’s blog topic will be titled “Winter Break.”)

Progressives Chat will return with a new blog topic on Monday, January 15, 2024.

In the meantime: As usual, I encourage readers to post whatever one will in Comments. (I will.)

… A 2024 Red Wave?

We are a point in which, for several months, Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden has a low job-approval suggestive of him not getting re-elected to a second term in 2024.

Recent general-election matchup polls with Biden and his predecessor, Republican Donald Trump, have the 45th president in good shape to unseat the current and 46th president.

Biden’s job-approval numbers have recently fallen below 40 percent. 

The most obvious issue is Inflation. But there is more to consider.

Key groups in the Democratic Party’s voting coalition are expressing disapproval of Biden on numerous counts. There are those who want him to bow out and not seek re-nomination for a possible second term. There are 18–29 voters—typically the first voting-age group to carry for Democrats—conspicuously dropping their +24 percentage points margin, as experienced by a 2020 Biden, down to a single-digit margin. (In Elections 2012, 2016, and 2020, the 18–29 voters gave Democrats nearly +20 percentage points above their percentage-points margins in the U.S. Popular Vote.) There are Arab-Americans, particularly in my home state Michigan, a leading bellwether state, who are now against Biden—due to his handling of the Israel–Hamas conflict—getting a second term. (Biden carried Michigan, in 2020, by roughly +154k raw votes. The state’s Arab-Americans number roughly 210k in population.)

In the November 6, 2023 Progressives Chat, the blog topic was “… Tossups and Trifecta.”

This was timed with 52 weeks from the scheduled general election of the November 5, 2024 United States presidential election.

My conclusion was with not predicting who will win U.S. President but to state that one of the two major parties will likely end up with all three of U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House. This is due to their current strength. Each level is, based on results from previous applicable election cycles, at 51 percent. Democrats have U.S. President, based in part on their Election 2020 U.S. Popular Vote, at 51.26 percent. Democrats, with the midterm elections of 2022, have U.S. Senate with 51.00 percent (of the seats). Republicans, with a 2022 midterm elections pickup of U.S. House, have 51.03 percent (of the seats). Given their numbers, at all three levels, each incumbent party is in a position of vulnerability.

A 2016 Donald Trump and a 2020 Joe Biden had this in common: When elected, they were party switches for the presidency; they both had the same original electoral-vote score of 306; they both carried just two states beyond their tipping-point state…which, for both, was pickups of Wisconsin. The Badger State, for Trump, was his No. 28 best state (he carried 30) for his 270th electoral vote. His additional pickups of Nos. 29 and 30, which were Pennsylvania and Michigan, delivered him to 290 and 306 electoral votes. For Biden, Wisconsin was his No. 23 best state (he carried 25) for his 279th electoral vote. His additional pickups of Nos. 24 and 25, Arizona and Georgia, brought him to 290 and 306 electoral votes.

What turned out to be the position of a 2020 Trump and a 2024 Biden—assuming re-nomination (otherwise, insert other Democratic nominee)—is that they (incumbent party) cannot lose anything that was carried on their winning maps. Lose a state—lose re-election. A 2020 Trump needed to gain. (He lost five states and his bid for re-election.) A 2024 Biden (or other party nominee) will also need to gain. 

To illustrate this point, I will present two scenario electoral maps for Election 2024 which will speak to the maximum potential for either a Democratic hold or a Republican pickup for U.S. President.

🔵 ELECTION 2024: DEMOCRATIC HOLD 🔵 All states carried in 2020 would end up party holds in 2024. (Reallocation of electoral votes, from the U.S. Census Bureau’s report from 2020, has the 2024 Democratic Party’s starting point at 303.) Following a 2020 U.S. Popular Vote of +4.45 percentage points (outcome was Joe Biden 51.26% vs. Donald Trump 46.80%), winning the 2024 U.S. Popular Vote by a percentage-points margin of +5 will deliver a pickup of North Carolina; a percentage-points margin of +6 will bring in another pickup with Texas. (Those two states appear in yellow.)

🔴 ELECTION 2024: REPUBLICAN PICKUP 🔴 Everything carried by the losing party in 2020 holds. Starting point of 235 electoral votes. All states in yellow are potential pickups. They are worth a combined 99 electoral votes. It doesn’t necessarily mean everything would flip. There are ten states, plus a congressional district, which should be “Considered.” My estimate (with most to least in certainty) begins with the nation’s leading bellwether states, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (at this point, a cumulative 279 electoral votes) plus the following: Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Maine (statewide), and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

Which, from the above scenario maps, is more likely to happen? (To however much extent? Please note: No past U.S. presidential election’s electoral map has ever been duplicated. Something, from 2020, will change color in 2024.)

Can Joe Biden come back from a job-approval rating, going on for a few months, having recently lowered to 37 percent?

My sense of this is that the Democrats are, as Joe Rogan recently stated, playing with “no cards and…they are depending on party loyalty.”

Team Blue is, again, likely all in with Biden.

Perhaps people will change their minds. That future job-approval and polling will report Biden’s numbers are heading north, as we move deeply in 2024, to an area suggestive of re-election (party hold) for the presidency.

If that does not happen…anticipate and expect a likely re-nominated Donald Trump to pull his 2016 and 2024 version of a 1884 and 1892 Grover Cleveland and, with that, a Red Wave for Election 2024.

◼️ Update 12.12.2023 @ 01:00 p.m. ET: I have reached the point of having enough confidence to predict Election 2024 will result in a Republican pickup for U.S. President (and, at this point, more likely than not with a re-elected-to-a-second non-consecutive term for Donald Trump). That the Democratic incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden will not get a second term. That the 2024 Republicans will also win a majority-control pickup for U.S. Senate and a party hold for controlling the U.S. House. A Red Wave.

🟣 A NOTICE FOR READERS 🟣

This week will be the last politics blog topic here in 2023. As we approach the year’s end, and will usher in a new year, I will give myself a gift that will be in the form of rest from writing and publishing specific blog topics. Beginning next week, Progressives Chat will go on an “[Extended] Holiday Break.” Weekly publishing will continue during this period. The comments section, as normal, will also be available.

Flashback 1978: ‘Killer Clown’ Captured

Now that December 2023 has arrived, it was 45 years ago this month that the serial murderer who was also known to some as “The Killer Clown” was revealed and apprehended.

John Wayne Gacy (March 17, 1942–May 10, 1994) became, at that time, the U.S.’s most notorious serial murderer. His crimes—his known victims (which numbered over 30)—ran a six-year span, but also seven consecutive years, between January 1972 to December 1978.

This occurred in an area of Chicago, Illinois—his house was in the suburb of Norwood Park Township—and his targets were teenage and young-adult males. Not all but most of the bodies were buried by Gacy under his house in its crawlspace. (That ranch-style house was demolished.)

Gacy was a non-typical serial murderer given that he blended into society and was considered, by those fellow citizens in his community, respectful and considerate. He was trusted. He was also involved in Democratic Party politics and, in a widely seen photograph, posed for a 1976 picture with a soon-to-be First Lady Rosalynn Carter (August 18, 1927–November 19, 2023).

Next year will mark 30 full years since the execution of John Wayne Gacy.

The above video is from ABC News’s archives and on the channel of Hezakya Newz & Films. The beginning minutes are incorporated with the 1971 song “Diana” by British progressive folk band Comus. That group’s violinist member, Colin Pearlson, wrote the music. It gives an eerie feeling to this video. 

The last four weeks—Mondays, November 13, 20, 27 and December 4, 2023—of blog topics have covered “Flashback” anniversaries to crimes of murder. They consisted of multiple murders, mass murders, assassinations, and serial murders. This will be the last such kind of topic here in 2023. I initially intended to schedule this week’s blog topic for Monday, December 18, 2023. The discovery of the bodies, in the crawl space of Gacy’s house, occurred just days before Christmas. They were uncovered Thursday, December 21, 1978. Calendar was the same in 1978 as it is here in 2023. So, I chose to not schedule this topic timed with Christmas, or Christmas Eve on Sunday, December 24, 2023, so this week will do. Next week’s blog topic will be the last on politics for this year. I will close out the remaining two weeks—Mondays, December 18 and 25, 2023—with general, well wishes for everyone for the holidays. A new year, the year 2024, is just around the corner. It will bring us the 60th quadrennial presidential election in the history of the United States. So, I do try to time some of this appropriately.

Flashback 1978: Dan White Assassinates George Moscone and Harvey Milk

Two weeks ago, I covered the 45-year anniversary of the Jonestown Massacre, which occurred on the date [Saturday,] November 18, 1978. This massacre ended the lives of a visiting member of the United States House of Representatives, Leo Ryan, and more than 900 other individuals and members of The People’s Temple. They were murdered by Reverend Jim Jones.

This week has a connection to that history. 

Nine days later, on Monday, November 27, 1978—the calendar was the same in 1978 as it is here in 2023—San Francisco, California, which was the home city for The People’s Temple, was rocked again.

Former City Hall supervisor Dan White (born September 2, 1946), who resigned his elected position (and wanted it back), accessed the building through a basement window. He approached 49-year-old mayor George Moscone (born November 24, 1929) and assassinated him. Afterward, White approached 48-year-old supervisor Harvey Milk (born May 22, 1930) and also assassinated him.

Dan White, after a phone call with his wife, surrendered. While on trial, his defense attorney made an argument which became known as “The Twinkie Defense.” White, who was convicted of manslaughter and served five years on a seven-year sentence, was paroled January 7, 1984. He returned to his wife and their home, in San Francisco, and committed suicide at age 39 on October 21, 1985.

This horrible history catapulted Dianne Feinstein to higher office. Born June 22, 1933, then-45-year-old Feinstein was president of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. Just after the assassination of Moscone, she became the city’s acting mayor. (She ran for mayor against Moscone, and lost to him, in 1975. Milk and White were elected in 1977.) Feinstein won a full-term election in 1979 and re-election in 1983. She was the Democratic Party’s 1990 nominee for Governor of California, did not win, but prevailed with her first term for U.S. Senate in 1992. Feinstein, the longest-serving female member in the history of the United States Senate, died at age 90 on September 29, 2023.

The life of George Moscone has not really been given much attention over the years. He was known as a mayor with a progressive vision for change. Harvey Milk, more obviously, was known for being an important and leading activist for rights for persons who are among the community of LGBT. A documentary about him, The Times of Harvey Milk, won the 1984 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. The 2008 film Milk—released 30 years after these assassinations—was directed by fellow LGBT Gus Van Sant. It was nominated for eight Academy Awards, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Supporting Actor Josh Brolin (for playing Dan White). It won Oscars for Best Original Screenplay Dustin Lance Black and, in his second win (for portraying Harvey Milk), Best Actor Sean Penn.

I recommend the following reading and videos:

• Wikipedia — ‘Milk–Moscone assassinations’

• Wikipedia — Dan White

• Wikipedia — George Moscone

• Wikipedia — Harvey Milk

• Wikipedia — Dianne Feinstein

 I

Flashback: 1963: JFK Assassinated

Wednesday, November 22, 2023 will mark the 60-year anniversary of the assassination of 35th president of the United States John Kennedy.

This occurred in Dallas, Texas on Friday, November 22, 1963.

Shortly following Kennedy’s death, then-U.S. vice president Lyndon Johnson was administered the Oath of Office as the 36th president of the United States.

There will be plenty of coverage on JFK with this anniversary. (I may come across videos and post in the Comments. If I do not…others are welcomed to do so. I consider this may not happen due to the timing of this being a holiday week.)

I am sure there will be coverage by media sources. What I don’t think will be mentioned—let alone properly argued or defended—is that the assassination of Kennedy was the start of sinister power showing they could pull this off with enough acceptance of the official report by The People.

I was not born until eight years later. Had I been born, say, twenty years earlier…I would not have bought into this. My sympathies to people who lived through this and were badly affected. 

Flashback 1978: The Burger Chef and Jonestown Murders

Next weekend will mark the 45-year anniversary of the multi-murders and mass-murders in Indiana and Guyana. 

(I will quickly note that the calendar, in 1978, was the same as this current year 2023. The date of this blog topic, here in 2023, was on the same day of the week back in 1978.)

On Friday, November 17, 1978, four employees at a Burger Chef in Speedway, Indiana were kidnapped, around closing time of the store location. Their bodies were discovered Sunday, November 19, 1978 in a wooden area in Johnson County, Indiana.

The Burger Chef Murders victims ranged between ages 16 to 20. The store manager, Jayne Friedt (b. May 2, 1958), the eldest, was age 20. Working under her were 17-year-old Ruth Shelton (b. December 19, 1960) and 16-year-olds Mark Flemmonds (b. December 31, 1961) and Daniel Davis (b. September 6, 1962).

Law enforcement made the mistake of assuming that, with the store abandoned, the four were being irresponsible—attributed to young age—and did not consider the Burger Chef location a crime scene. So, they allowed business to resume the next day. To this date, the murders are still not solved.

It is suspected, by some, that Friedt was targeted. That this may have been motivated by drugs and money. After 45 years, with some suspects dead, and with a crime scene cleaned up, it may never get solved.

Burger Chef was a defunct burger chain restaurant which began in 1954 Indianapolis, Indiana. It was headquarters for Burger Chef. This is Marion County, Indiana. This is the county in which this Speedway store was located.

For a video recommendation, on the Discovery+ app is Murders at the Burger Joint. 

Also…

Recommended reading:

Wikipedia — Burger Chef murders

Next In Line: The Burger Chef Murders

◾️🔷◾️ 🔷 ◾️

 

On Saturday, November 18, 1978, the Reverend Jim Jones murdered over 900 of his followers from the People’s Temple, formerly located in San Francisco, California, in Guyana. (Some of the members did commit suicide.)

The body count, from initial reports, was woefully underestimated. Days into recovering the victims is when it was discovered that more than 700 were among the dead. That number turned out to be 918. Among the dead included roughly 300 children. Multiple numbers of actual family members were among the victims. Members of Jones’s family were also among the victims. Jim Jones (born May 13, 1931) himself was among the dead.

Leading up to the massacre, there were growing concerns from people concerned about what was going on with the People’s Temple and their members. With a visit in Guyana by Leo Ryan (born May 5, 1925), a Democratic member of the United States House of Representatives (whose district partly included San Francisco), he agreed to look into the People’s Temple and investigate Jones. Ryan was joined by members of his staff and, among others, NBC News correspondent Don Harris (b. September 8, 1936) and cameraman Bob Brown (b. February 8, 1942) as well as San Francisco Examiner photographer Greg Robertson (b. October 21, 1951). Several members of the People’s Temple let Ryan know they wanted out of Guyana. 

As the group and Ryan’s people were at the airstrip in Port Kaituma, a village less than 10 miles from the commune, other members of People’s Temple ambushed the group and gunned down four. Ryan, Harris, Brown, and Robertson were all dead. So, too, was People’s Temple member Patricia Parks (b. April 29, 1934). She and her family—including her husband, their daughters, her mother-in-law—were attempting to leave. 

Surviving the attack were several who either pretended to be dead or, on foot, fled. One who survived, even though she was shot numerous times, was Ryan staffer Jackie Speier. Born in 1950, she was age 28 in 1978, Speier later won election to Ryan’s congressional seat in 2008, won re-elections through 2020, and served in the United States House of Representatives from 2009 to 2022.

Jim Jones was a con man. He convinced people, for years, he was a charismatic and powerful man of God. He was, perhaps, psychotic and a different form of evil. It may be that members of the People’s Temple thought Jones offered them salvation. He brought them death.

Recommended reading:

Alternative Considerations of Jonestown & Peoples Temple

Note: I may post additional videos, in the Comments, on these murders. I did not want to overwhelm this blog topic post with too many. I do recommend the embedded video on the Jonestown Massacre, titled “1978-1982 Special Report: Jonestown Aftermath” (Part I), which YouTube is not allowing to appear outside its website. It is by Hezakya Newz & Films. This a source which has hundred of historically and culturally relevant videos which show how the nation and the lives of its people were affected.

… Tossups and Trifecta

The week’s topic is the sixth and last on electoralism as related to next year’s United States presidential election. There is plenty more to consider. But, I will move on from this beginning next week. And, for what more I want to address, I will return to some more electoral-related topics when we are in 2024.

This blog topic is published a full 52 weeks from the [Tuesday,] November 5, 2024 United States presidential election.

Election 2024 will be the 60th quadrennial United States presidential election. The first was in 1789. We have had U.S. presidential elections with leap years since 1792.

To make any predictions a year in advance can be interesting…just to see, once that time arrives, whether anything predicted a year out actually materializes. 

I do not feel, not at this time, any strong sense of which of these two major United States political parties will prevail. I consider Inflation. I consider the Ukraine War. I consider the Israel–Hamas Conflict. I consider Abortion. And there are other things I consider.

While Democratic incumbent Joe Biden has a job-approval rating which is struggling for 40 percent so, too, did a 2011 Barack Obama and a 2019 Donald Trump one year in advance of their coming elections. In each case—re-election for Obama; unseating for Trump—the results were different.

My sense is that Election 2024 is a Tossup.

Tossups.

Tossups for the Trifecta: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House.

I will explain.

A review of the most recent election cycles:

ELECTION 2020: Solid shades are 2016-to-2020 party holds. Light shades are 2016-to-2020 party pickups.

U.S. President

• 2020 Outcome: Democratic pickup for Joe Biden
• 2020 U.S. Popular Vote: Democratic [Biden] 51.26%
• 2020 Consideration: A map with 25 carried states, with 50 percent of the nation’s states, and 306 electoral votes. The 2016 Democratic-carried states held. (They were worth, at the time, 232 electoral votes.) Pickups, as indicated on the above map in a light shade, and in order of best-performed were: Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District; Michigan (party’s No. 20 best state at a cumulative 243 electoral votes); Pennsylvania (No. 22 best state at 269 electoral votes); Wisconsin (No. 23 best state—and the Tipping-Point State—at 279 electoral votes); Arizona (No. 24 best state at 290 electoral votes); and Georgia (No. 25 best state at a cumulative 306 electoral votes)
• 2016 Donald Trump and 2020 Joe Biden Common Bonds: They both carried two states beyond their Tipping-Point State (in both cases it was Wisconsin). Trump carried 30 states and his Tipping-Point State, his 28 best state at 270 electoral votes, was followed by two additional pickup states to finish with the same original electoral-vote score as Biden. Both a 2020 Trump and a 2024 Biden had/have this position: Lose anything carried on the map…lose one’s bid for re-election
• 2024 Rating (11.06.2023): Tossup

U.S. Senate
• 2022 Outcome: Democratic [Hold for Majority] 51 seats
• 2022 Percentage of Seats (Established Thereafter): Democratic 51.00%
• 2022 Consideration: Under Joe Biden’s presidency, the midterm elections of 2022 marked the first time a Democratic-affiliated president’s party held every seat with re-elections for all their incumbent senators since 1934 Franklin Roosevelt
• 2024 Rating (11.06.2023): Tossup

U.S. House
• 2022 Outcome: Republican [Pickup for Majority] 222 seats
• 2022 U.S. Popular Vote: Republican [Pickup] 50% to 51% (conflicting numbers by Wikipedia)
• 2022 Percentage of Seats (Established Thereafter): 51.03%
• 2022 Consideration: While the White House opposition Republican Party won the overall net gains in seats in Congress, with the 2022 midterm elections, they underperformed historic norm. They went in with 213 U.S. House seats and won a national average of +1.5 seats with each nationally shifted percentage point (from 2020). Normal level is between +3.5 to +4. The 2022 U.S. House Republicans should have ended up with 234 to 237 seats. In increments of five, they should have reached 235. They didn’t even arrive at 225
• 2024 Rating (11.06.2023): Tossup

Conclusion

There are plenty of historic facts to point out. One such example is this: Since 2000, the party which won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House also prevailed for U.S. President. Another such example is this: When one or both houses of Congress switches party control, in what is also a United States presidential election, the pickup party is the same party which also won at the level of U.S. President. (This just happened in 2020 with Democratic pickups for both U.S. President and U.S. Senate.) And I think a number of the long-established patterns will, once again, hold with the overall outcome of Election 2024.

At this time, I don’t feel confidence with predicting either a Democratic hold or a Republican pickup of the presidency of the United States in 2024. The U.S. House Republicans are vulnerable. The U.S. Senate Democrats are vulnerable. The Democratic-affiliated, incumbent United States president—and, with that, the White House party—is vulnerable.

I can pretty such say this: Due to those previous election cycles’s average of 51 percent (and same percentage of established seats in both houses of Congress), the most confidence I can have is with the achievement for a Trifecta. 

Yes, the same party may very end up winning all three of U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House.

Republican pickup for U.S. Senate? Not without also winning a pickup for U.S. President.

Democratic pickup for U.S. House? Then the Republicans will not win a pickup—while the Democrats will indeed win a hold—for U.S. President.

It is basically a guess, at this point, as to where—for which of the two major parties—the chips will fall.

… Low-Approval Numbers for Biden

Last week, Gallup reported U.S. president Joe Biden has a job-approval—latest numbers—of 37 percent.

This is, of course, nationwide.

His job-approval percentage with self-identified Democrats is at 75.

His job-approval percentage with self-identified Independents—which is really a category for all who are outside the two major U.S. political parties (but without citing a specific third party)—is at 39.

Given the date of this blog topic, the good news for President Biden is that we are not yet heading into November of 2024. We are still in 2023. But, certainly from the position of Biden and his administration as well as the Democratic Party, this is a problem.

His job approval with his party should be at least 90 percent.

His job approval with Independents should be, at a minimum, in the upper-40s percentile range.

My feeling is this: If Election 2024 ends up a Democratic hold for U.S. President—specifically with Joe Biden or anyone who would replace him—the U.S. Popular Vote would be a minimum 5-point margin (up from +4.45 from 2020)—and for reasons I will explain in next week’s blog topic.

I think, with 53 weeks from Election Day, this is considerably important. It does not mean Biden’s approval will not increase. (You can see from the following chart the status of post-World War II U.S. presidents on the same timeline. I consider 2011 Barack Obama. I also consider 2019 Donald Trump.) But, it can also mean that, come October 2024, the approval on Biden would also suggest, as it does now, he would not win re-election…and that the White House incumbent Democratic Party—no matter their general-election nominee—would not be able to hold the presidency.

In the meantime, I will leave a link to this Gallup report.

Democrats' Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37%

… Not Enough Difference

The recent Israel–Hamas conflict, and that there has been numerous factions in the U.S. claiming innocence on behalf Israel, serves as a reminder—given next year’s presidential election—there is Not Enough Difference between the two major United States political parties. 

This can be difficult for some. People who self-identify with one of the two major U.S. political parties do so with confidence. And it is painful to face the music.

The following video shows some examples—particular individuals and sources—which illuminates this point.

… Third Parties, Part II

This is the second and last of a two-part focus on Third Parties.

The Elections [Structure]

In the October 2, 2023 Progressives Chat, the topic was on Polls. Well, some of these polls do not have a hypothetical two-party matchup for Election 2024 in which the duo add up to the historic average (which I will address). Typically they do not reach that level because, in part, there are plenty of people who will answer such polls with not being willing to vote for either the Republican or the Democrat in that hypothetical matchup. However, in general elections, no matter the two-party matchup…they do.

The first United States presidential election was in 1789. The second was in 1792. From that point forward, U.S. presidential elections have been scheduled in leap years. Since 1824, the U.S. Popular Vote has been recorded.

In the 50 U.S. presidential elections of 1824 to 2020, which have included the U.S. Popular Vote, the average combined percentage of the two-party matchup has been 93.89 percent.

This takes into account that, in Election 1912, Republican incumbent William Howard Taft was unseated so badly, by Democratic challenger Woodrow Wilson, that Taft actually finished in third place. The previous Republican-affiliated U.S. president Teddy Roosevelt, as the Progressive Party nominee, finished in second place. So, in this case, I counted the two top vote-getters to factor these numbers. 

(My source for these past U.S. presidential elections is Wikipedia. Some sources can vary reporting the last number or two following the decimal point of a whole number. But, I am OK with this source for this particular topic.)

It turns out, historically, the average percentage of the U.S. Popular Vote by third-party candidates has been 6.11 percent. Mind you…this isn’t just one third-party nominee, with each of the past 50 election cycles, but the combined percentage of all votes to all candidates outside the two major political parties (or two top vote-getters).

Since my birth year 1971, and with Election 1972 the first in my life, there has been a period of 48 years and 13 election cycles. From this, the average percentage of the two-party vote has been 95.48 percent…with 4.52 percent combined for all candidates outside the two major parties.

When I look at information on percentage-points margins, like a poll report saying a candidate is leading by +5 percentage points nationwide, I tend to think of the general-election scenario as 51 to 46 percent or 52 to 47 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote. For good reasons.

Since Election 1972, 8 of the 13 cycles have seen the two-party matchup combine for 97 to 99 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote…leaving a small buffer of 1 to 3 percent combined for all candidates outside the two major political parties. 10 of the 13 cycles have seen the two-party matchup over that historic average of 93.89 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote. (Only in 1980, 1992, and 1996 was the two-party U.S. Popular Vote under that historic average of 93.89 percent. Just the latter two elections were under 90 percent.)

When reflecting even further, I looked at 20th-century U.S. presidential elections in which anything on the map was carried by third-party candidates. (1992 Independent Ross Perot received 18.91 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote and carried no states and electoral votes…and he finished second in Maine and Utah.) Turns out there were four such elections. They appear in the above image.

What tends to carry electorally for third-party candidates are states which are/were, in present time, aligned to the political party to which that third-party candidate is/was closer. 

Consider:

• In 1912, Progressive Party nominee and former Republican U.S. president Teddy Roosevelt (with 27.40 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote) carried: California, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Washington. (This was in a period in which Republicans had alignment outside the South.)

• In 1924, Progressive Party nominee Robert La Follette Sr. (with 16.61 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote) carried the state he governed and in which he had been one of its U.S. senators (as he was affiliated with the Republican Party): Wisconsin.

• In 1948, States’ Rights nominee and Democratic Party member of the U.S. Senate Strom Thurmond (with 2.41 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote) carried: Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and his home state South Carolina.

• In 1968, George Wallace (with 13.53 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote) was the American Independent nominee in spite of having affiliated with the Democratic Party. He carried states then-aligned to that party (when they had the more general alignment in the South): his home state Alabama, which he had governed, as well as Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

I sense that, if we are to get a coming U.S. presidential election cycle in which a third-party candidate could carry on the map, the outcome would be in a similar vein. For example: Had Election 2016 seen Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson carry a state, it would have been one aligned to the Republican Party. Likewise that year’s Green Party nominee, Jill Stein, who would have likely carried a state aligned to the Democratic Party.

This is a very structured system. Which may be a kind way of stating it. The conclusion I have reached is this: While it is good to be informed, for as much as one can ask of himself (with regard for this topic), it is still important to handle one’s voting however one will. If one chooses to vote outside the two major U.S. political parties…one may do so regardless of historic, electoral pattern.

… Third Parties, Part I

 

In this two-part blog topic on Third Parties, and with the second part next week, I will first address:

The Campaign

Last week, Cornel West announced he is switching from running in the 2024 United States presidential election as a Green Party candidate to that of an independent.

Not long ago, seemingly around a 90-day window, he was previously a candidate for The People’s Party.

Decisions like this do not sound decisive. They do not come across as focused. It strikes people as unserious.

I do not wish anything negative of Cornel West, or his campaign, but since this is a blog I know I can be direct with giving my two-cents.

This is a waste.

Given this topic is in October 2023…it would not surprise me, six months out, if Mr. West “suspends” his campaign by April 2024. 

After April 2024, and given his recent Jimmy Dore Show interview, Mr. West can turn around in time for the general-election season and endorse Joe Biden—or if anyone else becomes the 2024 Democratic Party’s nominee—for president of the United States. 

After all, as Mr. West has stated (numerous times): Donald Trump, who many are sensing will become re-nominated by the Republican Party for a third consecutive election cycle, is a “neofascist” and Joe Biden is only a “neoliberal.”

This is an important distinction by Mr. West. He is running outside the two major U.S. political parties. He is supposed to try to win as much of a coalition—perhaps even reach that dreamy 5 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote—which combines both factions of voters who are usually more leaning to the Republican Party and more leaning to the Democratic Party. And he lets us know there is a difference between the two major political parties.

Imagine people—citizens who will vote—processing that.

If you enter a presidential race…and you are outside the two major U.S. political parties…and you have the benefit of being a name…you do not run this campaign.

… Polls

A recent poll from ABC News/Washington Post reports former U.S. president Donald Trump (R–Florida) nationally leads current U.S. president Joe Biden (D–Delaware), in a hypothetical general-election matchup, by +9 percentage points. (It reads as: Trump 51% vs. Biden 42%.)

(Source: Trump edges out Biden 51-42 in head-to-head matchup: POLL.)

In 2020, Biden unseated Trump with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +4.45 percentage points. (Outcome: Biden 51.26% vs. Trump 46.80%.)

The reaction, more than this poll, interests me.

People know that polls, a year or so in advance of a general election for a presidential election, is not necessarily what will play out. That it was a poll. 

Insiders know whether a given poll is believable given, in part, the sampling and the crosstabs.

Mainstream Democratic Party-friendly outlets freaked out and were whining about this poll. There was another poll, this past summer, with Trump nationally leading Biden by +6. That poll, too, caused a meltdown among the same faction.

People really taking to this most recent poll should keep in mind that many people are not tuned in. A lot of people do not want to address electoral politics until Election Time has arrived.

I estimate Election Time as a 60-day window. The general election will be Tuesday, November 5, 2024. So, perhaps September 5, 2024 can be considered the start of when people will be moving themselves to that point of decision.

(This is the first of a series of electoral-related topics which will run through November 6, 2023.)

UPDATE 10.02.2023 @ 07:30 P.M. ET: Revolutionary Blackout published to YouTube a video clip, from a previous livestream, with reaction. It is certainly related to this blog topic. 

‘Progressives Chat’ Turns Six

Progressives Chat launched on September 25, 2017.

The calendar in 2017 was also the same as here in 2023.

September 25, 2017 was, as is it here in 2023, on a Monday.

So…

Happy 6th Anniversary/Birthday to Progressives Chat! 

(I like the picture of that cake, which is specifically for a Birthday, so I am not fussing over the wording.)

I thank cathyx for helping me to get this to happen. I had no prior experience with a blog…let alone creating, launching, and establishing one. So, it was important. As it remains important.

I also thank everyone who is a regular here. And I plan to keep it going.  Regarding plans…

In October, there are five Mondays applicable for scheduled blog topics: October 2, 9, 16, 23, and 30. I will be using the entire month, as well as [Monday,] November 6, 2023, for blog topics related to electoralism and Election 2024. Each blog topic will titled with an ellipsis … followed by a specific subject for that given week. Think of them, if you don’t mind, as bulletin points. Hopefully, they will be considered as food for thought.

Less Can Be More

Last week, Progressives Chat’s cathyx, who has expressed disappointment in the recent substitute-hosting on The Jimmy Dore Show, perhaps in part because there is no substitute for the real thing, wrote the following comment:

“[Jimmy Dore] not being there is now going beyond not being there only when he's on vacation.… Is he getting tired of doing his [YouTube] show?”  

I am not certain what explains it.

I have titled this week’s blog topic, “Less Can Be More,” because, while cathyx’s comment’s question may be accurate [for a behind-the-scenes Jimmy Dore], it still amounts to the same thing with me. I, too, am disappointed.  

I do have concern.

I have considered whether he is needing more breaks.

I wonder if the frequency of regularly scheduled livestreams may have become too much. I consider how Dore is post-jabs. I really do not know.

Something that dawns on me is that “Less Can Be More” can be applied to not only The Jimmy Dore Show but also the likes of Due Dissidence and Revolutionary Blackout and, frankly, any source.

Can it be that some of these channels should pull back a little with their weekly schedules?

This may depend on who and what. That not every channel or show, and not every person who heads a channel or show, has the same needs.

This is worth consideration.

A livestream which runs more than two hours, and is three days per week, involves not just six-plus hours live; there is also the preparation ahead of a scheduled livestream.  

Some of the content creators depend solely on their income from their YouTube channels.

A couple years ago, with my interest in the Nintendo video game Animal Crossing: New Horizons, there were content creators who live-streamed by game-playing it on and after it released March 20, 2020. They generated many views on YouTube and/or Twitch. Some reached partnerships on Twitch. The New Horizons game eventually burned out. Some content creators moved on to other titles. Some burned out from the game. Some left Twitch due to its policy change, in the last year or so, which reduced gaming-content creators’s earnings from their livestreams. Yes, there were those who did not solely generate income as content creators. No matter…many stopped.

I sense it is much harder now to generate income from YouTube if you are not a high-tiered content creator. (Algorithm.) Some of these politically-related content creators are scheduled at least three days per week because, as they figure, it is necessary.

For any content creator, no matter a channel’s interest, who can afford to livestream no more than two days per week…doing that may be wise. It may even make the channel and/or show better.

Less can be more.

Reaction: The Dore–West Interview

Last Wednesday [September 6, 2023], The Jimmy Dore Show welcomed guest Cornel West.

The 2024 Green Party presidential candidate had a discussion with the host which turned out heated and, unfortunately, dissatisfying.

Numerous other sources—Revolutionary Blackout, Due Dissidence, Hard Lens Media, The Kim Iversen Show et al.—weighted in. (I think the best take came from Garland Nixon.) I did not find myself in disagreement with much. But, I am looking at this, perhaps, differently.

I have to admit…I was never invested in Cornel West. It does not mean I was not willing to consider him. It just means that I was not getting excited. (I am not moved by anyone.)

The presidency, and the campaigning, requires unique talent and skill in an individual. One certainty has to sustain all the way from the announcement of a candidacy throughout all steps to the general election (win or not).

It would be good if Cornel West, and all the key people in his campaign, shore up his weaknesses to get him to become focused—especially on the issues at the forefront—as well as organized and strong.

Labor Day 2023

A new blog topic will be scheduled for next week, Monday, September 11, 2023.

‘Debate Debrief with Vivek Ramaswamy’

Following last week’s first debate for the 2024 Republican Party nomination for U.S. President, Glenn Greenwald interviewed candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

This was on Rumble. So, embedding a video from that source is apparently not possible here.

I will first include a link to the Locals page in which one can read the transcript. 

Debate Debrief with Vivek Ramaswamy

Following is a link to the Rumble platform of this video. If one is near a television, it is syncable to television. Otherwise, it is fine with a device such as a computer, laptop, etc.

https://rumble.com/v3bbaej-system-update-show-137.html

‘Justice’ No More

Justice Democrats—the organization apparently intent on getting actual progressives elected through the Democratic Party (supposedly for better change for The People and that party)—is effectively over.

I never bought into Justice Democrats because, after the 2016 Democratic National Committee’s rigging of the presidential nomination for Hillary Clinton (who bought the DNC), and against Bernie Sanders (and against every person who voted the nomination to Bernie Sanders), I repudiated the Democratic Party.

This recent news of Justice Democrats folding is expected. The precious few, like Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez, who electorally succeeded…they politically failed. Deliberately.

I look at today’s Democratic Party as a scam operation. A so-called political party which has a seemingly endless number of figures who are con artists. One of them was Justice Democrats.

The above video was from last week. Sabby Sabs reports vital information on the organization that was Justice Democrats. It was a con before it officially began. 

That type of con is/was designed to persuade people who voted the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination to Bernie Sanders…to still be willing to vote in general elections for the Democratic Party. They did not succeed with persuading me.

Birthday Week

My birthday is this Wednesday, August 16, 2023.

I turn 52.

As a present to myself, I free myself from having to come up with a site-related topic for this week.

X

Twitter is no more.

It is now, as one can see above with its logo, X.

My response:

Coming Soon (But Not in August)…

The last two weeks included political topics which, in part, are about the electoral arena—specifically with regard for third-party support and that of a rising bellwether state.

This week is an alert.

I feel like not engaging much this early with numerous Election 2024 topics because, frankly, I don’t personally look forward to next year’s elections. I am not, let’s say, inspired.

I will address Election 2024, closer to a year out, in the Fall. This would be most likely in October 2023.

I am guessing my decision will not be controversial for the readers here at Progressives Chat.

Next In Line

The 2024 re-election campaign for United States president Joe Biden has a new target state: North Carolina. (Source: Biden looks to put North Carolina on ’24 map.)

The Tar Heel State is on the radar for the 2024 Democrats, with the party and the administration wanting to hold onto the presidency, for some reasons which are easy to understand.

#01. The 2024 Democrats, wanting to win, are taking the pro-active position to expand the map.

#02. North Carolina is the best state for easiest reach.

Typically what happens in a U.S. presidential election in which we get a party switch, as occurred in both 2016 (Republican pickup for Donald Trump) and 2020 (Democratic pickup for Joe Biden), is that the map unfolds with a pickup-winning party carrying everything from their column in the previous cycle (which said party lost) before winning pickups of involved, applicable states (and, if also applicable, any congressional districts like with the 2nd congressional districts in each of 2016 Maine and 2020 Nebraska). So, 2016 Donald Trump carried everything, as a starting point, which were in the 2012 Republican column for Mitt Romney. That 2020 Joe Biden carried everything, as a starting point, which were in the 2016 Democratic column for Hillary Clinton. 

This is logical. If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup of the presidency, North Carolina—which held in the 2020 GOP column for Trump—carries as a Republican hold before that given GOP presidential pickup winner wins pickups from involved, applicable states to get the map to reach 270.

A part of what makes North Carolina attractive for the 2024 Democrats is this: If there is anything on the map for the 2020 Republicans (unseated Trump) which does not hold, because of having flipped to the Democrats, the Democrats will prevail. This occurred, as examples, with 1996 re-elected Democrat Bill Clinton as losing Republican challenger Bob Dole failed to hold Arizona and Florida (both which were in the 1992 Republican column for unseated incumbent George Bush); also with 2004 re-elected Republican George W. Bush as losing Democratic challenger John Kerry failed to hold Iowa and New Mexico (both which were in the 2000 Democratic column for losing nominee and then-U.S. vice president Al Gore).

North Carolina is the easiest reach for this reason: Over the last four presidential election cycles—2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—just three states were carried every time: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. North Carolina, for its reliability record, got it “wrong” in 2012 (a Republican pickup for losing nominee Romney) and 2020 (a Republican hold for unseated Trump). In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected having carried 26 states. (That was a decline from 28 states, in 2008, which included a then-Democratic pickup of North Carolina.) In 2020, Biden won his party switch of the presidency with having carried 25 states. When looking at the list of carried states, and ranking all by their percentage-points margins (and in descending order),  and then looking at what did not carry: the next state in line—both times—was North Carolina. It was 2012 Obama’s No. 27 best-performed state. It was 2020 Biden’s No. 26 best-performed state. A 2012 Obama was re-elected with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +3.86 percentage points. (Result: Obama 51.01% vs. Romney 47.15%.) A 2020 Biden prevailed in the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 percentage points. (Result: Biden 51.26% vs. Trump 46.80%.) When you round off those margins to whole numbers, you can say they won the U.S. Popular Vote by +4. Each percentage point by which a presidential winner carries the U.S. Popular Vote typically yields carriage of one more state. The Democrats, as apparent with 2012 Obama and 2020 Biden, need to nowadays win nationally by +5 to carry North Carolina. That is, basically, an outcome of 51-vs.-46 or 52-vs.-47 percent. 

This is achievable due to a pattern established since 1992. Winning Democrats have averaged +5.93 percentage points in the U.S. Popular Vote. (Although 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump did not win over the U.S. Popular Vote, adjusted margins for both on the positive side—and dealing with a whole number—would have reached +2. A 2004 Bush won by +2.46.)

In 2018, I wrote about the nation’s leading bellwether states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—here: Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I made this prediction: “I am predicting that the winner of the 2020 United States presidential election will carry the Rust Belt trio of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.”

That did happen.

In this current year, 2023, I will make this prediction for Election 2024: The winning party—which also means candidate (incumbent or otherwise)—will carry all four of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin…and, yes, North Carolina.

That will likely happen.

It will likely happen, in part, because no past election’s electoral map has ever been duplicated. For example: 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump both carried 30 states. Differences: Carried by 2000 Bush (but not 2016 Trump): Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Carried by 2016 Trump (but not 2000 Bush): Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (as well as Maine’s 2nd Congressional District).

So…

✓ Republican pickup of the presidency? Flip the trio from the Rust Belt. 

✓ Democratic hold of the presidency? Flip the Tar Heel State.

I categorize Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as the nation’s Leading Bellwether States.

I now categorize North Carolina as the nation’s Sleeper Bellwether State.

Supporting Third-Party Candidacies

I support running for office, in general, and including for the presidency of the United States, by persons outside the two major U.S. political parties.

I support Cornel West’s decision to run outside the two major political parties.

A person who runs outside the two major political parties, and what votes he receives, do not belong to either of the two major political parties.

Since 2000—a Republican pickup of the presidency to George W. Bush (in an election year in which the nation had to elect a new president because the incumbent, Democrat Bill Clinton, was term-limited)—the Democrats have created and pushed a narrative to excuse their losses. 

The Democratic Party’s election-loss excuses tend to more often get expressed in election cycles which switch the presidency to the column of the Republican Party. And the narrative tends to be that the Democratic Party did not earn their loss. The excuse is that a candidate outside the two major political parties earned votes that belong to the Democratic Party.

This Democratic Party narrative was pedaled in 2000 and in 2016. It was used against Green Party nominees Ralph Nader and Jill Stein. This was done with the intent to create a belief in Loyal Democrats—or those more likely to generally vote for the Democrats before they would vote for the Republicans—to buy into, to keep accepting, willful failures by the Democratic Party. To get people who are willing to listen—and are willing to believe; to not question; to not analyze—to excuse and continue to support the Democratic Party.

A part of this is also designed to get people who are Loyal Democrats, or would vote Democrat before they would vote Republican, to feel they and this nation need the Democrats; rather than it being the Democratic Party who should be needing these citizens and their votes.

I see a part of this, which also includes voter-shaming and voter-bullying, to be a form of psychological warfare (or, as some label it, a psyop).

The Democratic Party is a scam operation. 

The Democratic Party is full of con artists.

I reject the Democratic Party. 

I support the decisions of Ralph Nader, Jill Stein, and Cornel West—and anyone else I should name—to run outside not just the Republican Party but especially the Democratic Party.

2023 Summer Vacation Break, Week #02

This is the second week of this 2023 Summer Break. 

There will be no specific topic for this week.

Next Monday, July 17, 2023 will mark a return with a new blog topic.

2023 Summer Vacation Break, Week #01

Tuesday, July 4, 2023 is Independence Day.

I wish for everyone a safe and pleasant Fourth of July.

I will be taking this, and next, week as a “Vacation Break”—with good timing, for the Summer, to take a break from having to post a specific topic.

Return to regular topics will be scheduled for Monday, July 17, 2023.

Flashback 1978: Actor Bob Crane Murdered

This week marks the 45-year anniversary of the murder of television star Bob Crane. 

(Side note: The calendar from 1978 is also the same here in 2023. That this blog topic’s publishing date was also on a Monday in 1978.)

Bob Crane, born July 13, 1928, in Waterbury, Connecticut, was previously a radio personality before he became an actor. 

Crane was the leading man on the popular CBS comedy series Hogan’s Heroes. The World War II-based sitcom, set in Nazi Germany, was broadcast for six seasons from 1965 to 1971. The series received multiple Emmy nominations. Costar Werner Klemperer (1920–2000) won two Emmys, out of five nominations, for supporting actor. Crane was twice nominated for lead actor.

After the series ended, Crane’s career went into decline. He made attempts for a career comeback, including The Bob Crane Show, a short-lived midseason comedy series broadcast during the 1974–75 television season, on NBC. (It premiered in March 1975 and was done by June.) Numerous of his appearances were either in television films or guest performances on television series. Crane’s last screen role, in 1978, was as a guest star in an episode from the premiere season of ABC’s The Love Boat.

Crane took to the road. He performed dinner theater. He did this until his death at age 49.

On [Thursday,] June 29, 1978, Bob Crane—while on tour starring in Beginner’s Luck—was found dead in his Scottsdale, Arizona motel room. He was murdered. Bludgeoned to death. 

The following videos give attention to Crane’s ugly end. The first was his last interview. The second was a television-news report on his demise. The third, published to YouTube a few years ago (and given an age-restricted branding) is about the case. (That video, which is titled “Murder in Scottsdale The Death of Bob Crane,” on the channel by Anil Roberts, cannot be accessed within having been embedded in this blog entry.) That third video, much about the investigation, touches on Crane’s private life. He was a sex addict (who filmed some of his encounters). That he kept company with the person suspected of being his killer, John Carpenter (1928–1998), who was prosecuted but acquitted in 1994. (Much of this is given, er, focus in Paul Schrader’s 2002 film Auto Focus, starring Greg Kinnear as Crane and Willem Dafoe as Carpenter.)

For anyone who well-remembers this period which marked the end for this actor, it is certainly disturbing. His life was. More than likely, he was. (Recommended read from a piece published in April 2023: Inside The Gruesome Murder Of Bob Crane, The ‘Hogan’s Heroes’ Star Who Was Beat To Death In 1978.)

I came across an interview, circa-late-1980s, with Werner Klemperer. (It is on YouTube. I watched it before writing this blog topic.) Klemperer was Tony-nominated in 1988 for a musical revival of Cabaret. In brief mentioning of Crane, a respectful Klemperer—who got along well with Crane—said that he thinks [thought] that it is one murder case which will never become solved.  

★☆★☆★

Flashback 1973: The Friends from 50 Years Ago

My favorite decade of motion pictures was the 1970s. A personal favorite of mine was released on the same day as this blog topic. On [Tuesday,] June 26, 1973, Paramount Pictures released The Friends of Eddie Coyle.

This film was directed by Peter Yates (1929–2011). As a director, he helmed 1968’s box-office smash Bullitt (which won a film-editing Oscar for Frank P. Keller in response to one of cinema’s most memorable chase scenes). Yates would go on to direct and land 1979 and 1983 Oscar nominations, in his respective category, for Best Picture nominees Breaking Away (which won Best Original Screenplay for Steve Tesich) and The Dresser.

The Friends of Eddie Coyle is based on the 1970 debut novel by George V. Higgins (1932–1999). Higgins was an author, attorney, columnist, and professor. The screenplay was adapted by Paul Monash (1917–2003), who also produced the film. Monash was an Emmy-winning writer, film and television producer, and he created ABC’s Peyton Place (brought to the small screen from the controversial 1956 novel by Grace Metalious, 1924–1964).

The film casts, in the title role, Robert Mitchum (1917–1997). He is surrounded by a supporting cast which includes Peter Boyle (1935–2006), Richard Jordan (1937–1993), Steven Keats (1945–1994), Alex Rocco (1936–2015), and Joe Santos (1931–2016).

The superb score is by a future Oscar- and Grammy-winner Dave Grusin. He, coincidentally, also counts June 26 as a memorable day—it his birthday; born in 1934; and he turns 89.

Set in Boston, Massachusetts, Eddie Coyle is a gun-runner. Everyone in his circle—his “Friends”—are cons. Whether they are running guns or robbing banks…the film has plenty of double-crosses and setups. They are a duplicitous and cutthroat lot.

The Friends of Eddie Coyle ranks as one of the best screen performances delivered by Robert Mitchum. He landed only one Oscar nomination in his 50-plus-year career as a legendary star. That was a 1945 supporting nomination for The Story of G.I. Joe. Had Mitchum received a lead nomination, this would have been the performance to single out. He is totally convincing as an aging but resilient criminal whose luck may be running out.

My favorite of the film’s supporting performances, with backing Mitchum, is by Steven Keats. The actor served in Vietnam and, sorry to say, committed suicide at age 49 three years before Mitchum’s death at age 79. Keats was the leading man in director Joan Micklin Silver’s 1975 [19th-to-20th] turn-of-the-century drama Hester Street, which landed an Oscar nomination for leading lady Carol Kane, and he received an Emmy nomination in 1977 for the NBC miniseries Seventh Avenue. (Coincidentally, Friends costars Peter Boyle and Richard Jordan were also in the 1977 Emmy hunt: Boyle, for playing disgraced U.S. senator Joseph McCarthy in NBC’s Tail Gunner Joe; and Jordan, who was nominated in the same category as Keats, for the NBC miniseries Captains and the Kings.)

The Friends of Eddie Coyle is among numerous of the 1970s Neo Noir genre of motion pictures. This film is a compelling crime drama. It is brilliant. 

(Side note: I also recommend 1975’s Night Moves, directed by Arthur Penn, and starring Gene Hackman as a private investigator. It is currently available on Criterion Channel’s streaming service. It recently was aired on Turner Classic Movies. According to Wikipedia, the film was released in New York, New York on June 11 and Los Angeles, California on July 2, 1975. Night Moves—costarring Jennifer Warren, Susan Clark, and early film credits for both Melanie Griffith and James Woods—is another smart Neo Noir crime thriller from this medium’s New Hollywood period.) 

The following videos are a clips package by Criterion; an exquisitely acted scene by Mitchum and Keats; and two United Kingdom-based men (their channel is titled More Movies)—with a shared interest in delving into films from the 1970s—who discuss their appreciation for The Friends of Eddie Coyle.

 

 

 

★☆★☆★

Coming Up…

While The Jimmy Dore Show is taking a two-week hiatus, beginning this week, and will resume with livestreams on Monday, July 10, 2023…I will be using the weeks of [Mondays,] July 3 and 10, 2023 for Vacation Break-type blog topics. This is simply to give myself a breather from having to come up with a blog topic for all of the 52 weeks in a given year. This timing is deliberately synced with the first of the two weeks including Independence Day [July 4]. While some people do take vacations, and while some people do not (for at least one reason), I think it wise for me to do this for myself. I am sure readers understand. Regular topics will resume [Monday,] July 17, 2023.

Flashback 2008: Comedian George Carlin Dies

Thursday, June 22, 2023 marks the 15-year anniversary of the death, at age 71, of Grammy-winning comedian George Carlin. 

He was born May 12, 1937, in New York, New York. (Carlin and my late father had the same birthday.)

Carlin’s first wife, Brenda [Hosbrook], died at age 57 in 1997 (Brenda Carlin dies at 57). His father, Patrick (1888–1945), died in the year Carlin turned 8. His mother, Mary, had a lengthy lifespan, born in 1896 and died in 1984. His older brother, Patrick Jr., born in 1931, died last year in his early-90s.

A year after Brenda’s death, Carlin married comedy writer Sally Wade, his widow.

George and Brenda Carlin’s daughter, Kelly, turned 60 on June 15. A part of her career has been that of a radio show host as well as a writer. She won an Emmy last year, in the category Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special, for the HBO [Max] documentary on her father, George Carlin's American Dream.

Carlin was the first host of then-NBC’s Saturday Night (now-Saturday Night Live) on October 11, 1975.

He received six prime-time Emmy-nominations. Three of them were for Outstanding Individual Performance in variety specials George Carlin: Jammin’ in New York (1992), George Carlin: 40 Years of Comedy (1997), and George Carlin: You Are All Diseased (1999). Those three specials were among 14 he did for HBO.

Carlin won five Grammys for comedy recordings (different named categories). Those prized were: FM and AM (1972); George Carlin: Jammin’ in New York (1993); Braindroppings (2001); Napalm & Sillyputty (2002); and It’s Bad for Ya! (2008, awarded posthumously).

I will be leaving this with some content by the late comedian. He had a strong sense of who—and how—we are as a people…in a nation which should not be described as enlightened. 

  

Flashback 2013: Aaron Hernandez Murders Odin Lloyd

This Saturday, June 17, 2023, marks ten years to the date that pro-football star Aaron Hernandez (b. November 6, 1989) murdered non-pro football player Odin Lloyd (b. November 14, 1985). 

Hernandez, with New England Patriots, murdered more than one person. And he clearly lived a life outside the image people had of him.

Hernandez died, at the same age as Lloyd, 27, by suicide on April 19, 2017. 

For more on the case, and its timeline, here is a good source from 2020:

Aaron Hernandez timeline: From murders and trials to prison suicide

Although I have a general skepticism in Wikipedia, here is its page on:

Murder of Odin Lloyd

This was an infamous case. That is, for all which became revealed of Hernandez. There is also the fact that his sexual life was not the same as what he presented professionally. But, in all this, it seem like not enough attention was given to Lloyd given he was a human being who, no doubt, was a better person than Hernandez. Unlike Hernandez, Lloyd was not a murderer.

The above video is from a Netflix documentary a few years ago. I used to subscribe to the service. I canceled several months ago and would return if my interest became renewed. The documentary was one of the best from the streamer.