Now that September has arrived, we are two months from the 2026 United States midterm elections.
Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
A quick summary follows.
Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump is, according to recent polls, now under 40 percent in job approval. It positions the White House opposition Democratic Party in electoral advantage.
I predict, in general, the following:
🇺🇸 U.S. HOUSE 🇺🇸 Democratic majority-control pickup for at least 218 seats
🇺🇸 U.S. SENATE 🇺🇸 Democratic majority-control pickup for at least 51 seats
🇺🇸 U.S. GOVERNORS 🇺🇸 Democratic pickup for overall majority for at least 26 governorships
I will not go into too many details, at this time, but will touch on a couple related points.
Can Ds win Texas [Part II]?
In the March 1, 2026 blog, “ Can Ds win Texas [Part I]?” I wrote about the 2026 Texas primaries for U.S. Senate. The nominations are now settled: Republican nominee Ken Paxton vs. Democratic nominee James Talarico.
My prediction (two months out): Democratic pickup for Talarico.
To answer this subtopic’s question … yes.
Texas has been generally trending away from the Republicans and toward the Democrats. I would say it has been trending toward possible bellwether. From red to red violet.
Over the last, say, 25 years … Texas went from the Republicans’s No. 10 (in 2000 and 2004 for George W. Bush) to No. 15 (in 2008 and 2012 for John McCain and Mitt Romney) to No. 22 (in 2016 for Donald Trump) to No. 23 (in 2020 for Trump) to No. 20 (in 2024 for Trump). This means, for the Democrats, Texas has trended to their No. 41 (in 2000 and 2004 for Al Gore and John Kerry) to No. 36 (in 2008 and 2012 for Barack Obama) to No. 29 (in 2016 for Hillary Clinton) to No. 28 (in 2020 for Joe Biden) to No. 31 (in 2024 for Kamala Harris).
In case this isn’t clear: In 2020, when Biden unseated Trump, the former carried 25 states. His No. 28 best was Texas. Biden was three states from flipping and carrying Texas.
In 2024, Texas was Harris’s No. 31 best state. While that seemed like a setback, her Nos. 28 to 31 best states were separated by only 0.58 percentage points. In descending order: No. 28 Florida (–13.10); No. 29 Alaska (–13.13); No. 30 Iowa (–13.21); and No. 31 Texas (–13.68). Inconsequential differences.
If Election 2028 results in a Democratic pickup for U.S. President, Texas can be won over if the winning candidate carries at least 28 states. Since 1992, the average number of states carried by prevailing Democrats—Bill Clinton (32 and 31), Obama (28 and 26), and Biden (25)—are 28.
Returning to this 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race: Talarico has been leading in most polls during the Summer. A YouTube channel, “The TEC Show,” published a YouTube video showing why Paxton isn’t strong.
Prediction: Abdul El–Sayed Will Win U.S. Senate in Michigan
I participated in Due Dissidence’s August 4, 2026 livestream on Primary Night from my home state, Michigan. Due to the closeness of the primary outcome, and how there was such a battle, co-host Keaton Weiss has been thinking a divide may cause a Republican pickup for Mike Rogers.
I don’t think so.
I predict a 2026 Democratic hold: The next United States senator from Michigan will be Abdul El–Sayed.
Given I also predict a Democratic majority-control pickup for the U.S. Senate … the route to getting to 51 involves the following pickups (in probable order): North Carolina; Maine; Alaska; Ohio; Texas; and Iowa.
This would mean Michigan gets retained by the 2026 Democrats.
It is pattern.
Since the 1990s, in midterm elections which resulted in a party switch for control for the U.S. Senate, the White House opposition party retained all seats … before they won sufficient numbers of pickups.
🔵 1994 U.S. SENATE 🔴 In the Year #02 presidency of Democratic incumbent Bill Clinton, the minority Republicans entered with 44 seats. They won a pickup of +8 for a majority 52 seats.
🔴 2006 U.S. SENATE 🔵 In the Year #06 presidency of Republican incumbent George W. Bush, the minority Democrats entered with 45 seats. They won a pickup of +6 for a majority 51 seats.
🔵 2014 U.S. SENATE 🔴 In the Year #06 presidency of Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, the minority Republicans entered with 45 seats. They won a pickup of +9 for a majority 54 seats.
There is more to consider.
Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Michigan is a leading bellwether state. They have the longest active streak with having carried for U.S. presidential election winners—five consecutive elections—in 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Michigan has particularly stood out because no other state came closer to matching with its percentage-points margin to that of the U.S. Popular Vote. In 2020, Biden won nationally by D+4.45 and Michigan by D+2.78. In 2024, Trump won nationally by R+1.47 and Michigan by R+1.41.
Michigan has had similar proximity with its popular vote vs, the national for the U.S. House.
The last two U.S. midterm elections in which the U.S. House—on the watch of a Republican U.S. president—switched to the Democrats were in 2006 (Bush) and 2018 (Trump). Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by D+8.01 and D+8.56. (That is, like, 53 to 45 percent.)
I suspect this may also turn out to be the case here in 2026.
If that does play out, and the U.S. House popular vote in Michigan ends up D+8, the state would follow its 2024 outcome of R+0.78 (then-outcome: Republicans 48.75% vs. Democrats 47.97%) with a near-shift of D+9 and a net gain of U.S. House seats, from the state, for the 2026 Democrats. They enter with 6 of the state’s 13. Some sources think Democrats may flip up to +3.
My sense with 2026 Michigan is that there will be no more than a 3-point to 5-point differential for Democrats with winning Governor of Michigan (Jocelyn Benson) and U.S. Senate (El–Sayed) … while its U.S. House vote connects with the national percentage-points margin. Suppose a U.S. House and Michigan popular vote outcome of D+8. Benson, following term-limited Gretchen Whitmer’s 2022 re-election margin of D+10.53, wins by D+12. El–Sayed may end up winning by, say, D+4.
I have a chart which presents a scenario for a 2026 Democratic majority-control pickup for the U.S. Senate. They rank the involved states’s seats for where they would likely slot. What also gets taken into account are an average separation in the percentage-points margins by which they carry. So, if the 2026 Democrats win a majority of up to 53 seats, the 53rd seat is the lowest margin. Those slotting above it would be won in higher increments of +0.25 or +0.33 or +0.50 or +0.66 or +0.75 or +1.00. It is an attempt to gauge—to envision—where some of these winners, especially pickup winners, would place. It gives an idea with Talarico. It certainly does that with El–Sayed.
No comments:
Post a Comment