As Texas Trends Blue, Ohio Trends Red

The Democrats are wanting to win Texas again in United States presidential elections. They have been wanting it for more than ten years. Effective with Jimmy Carter in 1976, every Democratic Party presidential winner carried the state of Texas. In the 1990s, Bill Clinton was the first Democrat to win without Texas. The Lone Star State has been much-desired by Democrats who equate winning over Texas with sinking the Republican Party.

As the Republican presidential pickup winner of 2000, and following that year with re-election in 2004, George W. Bush carried his home state in excess of +20 percentage points relative his national support. Having won 30 and 31 states, the percentage-points margins in 2000 and 2004 Texas made it Bush’s No. 10 best state. With the Republicans failing to hold the White House in 2008, with John McCain, and with failing to flip it back with Mitt Romney in 2012, Texas lowered to the No. 15 best state for McCain (who carried 22 states) and Romney (who won 24 states). In the 2016 Republican presidential pickup year for Donald Trump, Texas actually shifted its 2012-to-2016 margins toward losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton—going from R+15.78 to R+8.98—and the state ranked as Trump’s No. 22 best.

In that 2016 United States presidential election, Trump’s GOP pickup of Ohio, with a margin of +8.07, made it his No. 23 best state. It was only –0.91 less red than Texas. States which had usually performed more Republican than Ohio, but were less so in 2016, were Georgia (+5.10), North Carolina (+3.66), and Arizona (+3.50). Ohio performing at R+8.07 was made possible in part because Trump needed a higher margin out of Ohio—turned out to be in excess of +7—to also flip and carry the Rust Belt trio Wisconsin (+0.76, his tipping point state), Pennsylvania (+0.72), and Michigan (+0.22). But, Trump having flipped Ohio was also a part of winning over the majority of Top 10 populous states. Starting off with 2012 Mitt Romney’s 206 electoral votes, GOP pickups of Florida (+29 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (+20), Ohio (+18), and Michigan (+16) combined for +83 electoral votes. They took Trump past the 270 mark, with 289 of his original 306 electoral votes, before his additional pickups of Wisconsin (+10), Iowa (+06), and the 2nd Congressional District of Maine (+01).

The Democrats are really excited about Texas. To see a state perform anywhere from Nos. 21 to 30 means the party not with the White House senses an applicable state is flippable with the next election which delivers a party switch. But, I think the Democrats’ quest to flip Texas can come with a trade-off: that they fail to win back Ohio.

The Top 10

The current Top 10 populous states are: California (55 electoral votes); Texas (38); Florida (29); New York (29); Pennsylvania (20); Illinois (20); Ohio (18); Georgia (16); North Carolina (15); and Michigan (16). (The next U.S. Census will get North Carolina and Michigan—along with the rest—in line to reflect appropriate allocation of congressional seats and electoral votes from population changes after 2010.)

Since the U.S.’s first post-Civil War presidential election of 1868, there were four presidential elections in which all of the Top 10 populous states were carried: 1936, 1964, 1980, and 1984. In each case, Franklin Roosevelt (46 of 48 states), Lyndon Johnson (44 of 50 states), and the two for Ronald Reagan (44 followed by 49 of 50 states) resulted in them having carried at least 80 percent of the nation’s states. Since 1992, the percentage of states carried have been in the range of 52 to 64 percent. (The highest was Bill Clinton, with 32 of 50, in 1992. The lowest was Barack Obama, with 26 of 50, in 2008.) From this period, no presidential winner has carried more than 8 of the Top 10. This happened twice: Bill Clinton, in 1996, and Barack Obama, in 2008. The next-best was 7 of the Top 10: Clinton (1992), Obama (2012), and Trump (2016). In this time period, only Republican George W. Bush won with less than half of the nation’s Top 10 populous states. (He carried four: Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Georgia. During much of the 2000s, North Carolina did not rank Top 10. It was at No. 11. New Jersey was still a Top 10 populous state.)

The overwhelming majority of U.S. presidential winners have carried more than half of the Top 10 populous states. They currently combine for 256 electoral votes. A flaw to the Electoral College is that 236 congressional districts combine in the Top 10. The 256 electoral votes, from a total allocation of 538, is equal to 47.58 percent. The 236 U.S. House seats, from 435 congressional districts (adjust it to 436 for an elector from District of Columbia), represents 54.12 percent of the nation’s population. So, the majority of the nation’s population reside in a state which ranks among the Top 10. As a resident of Michigan, this applies to me. And so I don’t take this lightly. The problem with the Electoral College is folding in the U.S. Senate’s 100 seats to the allocated 538 electoral votes. The U.S. House is proportional representation. The U.S. Senate amounts to two seats per state without regard for proportional representation. So, those wanting to abolish the Electoral College have a credible argument. After all, the Top 10 states are not getting the full weight of their overall votes accurately reflected.

I won’t digress for long.

The Last Two Party Switches

When it comes to percentage-points margins, let’s look at the best-performed states, for 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama and 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump, and rank them.

2008 DEMOCRATIC PICKUP—BARACK OBAMA
1. New York — D+26.86
2. Illinois — D+25.10
3. California — D+24.02
4. Michigan — D+16.44
5. New Jersey — D+15.53
6. Pennsylvania — D+10.31
[U.S. Popular Vote: D+7.26]
7. Ohio (pickup) — D+4.59
8. Florida (pickup) — D+2.81
9. Georgia — R+5.20
10. Texas — R+11.76

2016 REPUBLICAN PICKUP—DONALD TRUMP 
1. Texas — R+8.98
2. Ohio (pickup) — R+8.07
3. Georgia — R+5.10
4. North Carolina — R+3.66
[Adjusted popular-vote margin: +2]
5. Florida (pickup) — R+1.19
6. Pennsylvania (pickup) — R+0.72
7. Michigan (pickup) — R+0.22
8. Illinois — D+16.89
9. New York — D+22.49
10. California —D+29.99

I adjusted the margin on Trump for this reason: The previous two party switches for the presidency—2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush and 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama—saw them gain pretty much +1 state for each percentage point nationally shifted (from the previous election cycle) in their direction. (It is typically between +1 to +1.5 states gained on average.)

In 2000, George W. Bush gained +11 states with a national 1996-to-2000 shift of R+8.00. So, Bush flipped an average of +1.37 states with each percentage point nationally shifted in his (and the Republicans’) direction.

In 2008, Barack Obama gained +9 states, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, with a national 2004-to-2008 shift of D+9.72. So, Obama flipped an average of +0.92 states with each percentage point nationally shifted in his (and the Democrats’) direction. Since Nebraska #02 was a Democratic pickup, round that “+0.92” to +1.

Had a 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump won a likewise pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, he would have taken 2012 Mitt Romney’s loss of –3.86 and, since Trump gained +6 states (and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District), I estimate his margin would have been between +2.15 to +2.65. So, I went ahead and adjusted his popular-vote margin to +2. 

The Trending Top 10

The whole point of my having listed those Top 10 populous states, for where they came in for the last two winners of separate political parties [Obama and Trump], is to understand where they ranked—and to get a sense of possible future trends (as indicated below).

Since the Democrats are looking at Texas as flippable for the next time the White House party switches from Republican to Democratic, I consider a number of things: 1. How many states get carried? (Will it still follow the pattern which took hold in 1992?); 2. Is the pattern going to finally break? (Are we going to get a winner who carries at least 40 states? Meaning, 80 percent or above of this nation’s states. If so, that would be not a net gain of +1 state for each percentage point nationally shifted but closer to +1.5 states gained. Going by the 2016 results, with losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton having won 20 states, a 2020 Democratic winner would have to shift at least 14 percentage points nationally to get a pickup of 20 states to reach carriage of 40 states.)

If the United States presidential election of 2020 ends up a Democratic pickup, and among the flipped states would be Texas, it is not going to turn “blue” without the top bellwether states of 2016 and 2020—which include Top 10s Pennsylvania and Michigan (to go along with non-Top 10 Wisconsin)—flipping as well. And if Texas flips, so too will Georgia and North Carolina. (They are bluer than Texas.) It is tough to imagine Texas flipping without Ohio. But, what can make that happen is if the Democratic pickup winner gains a number of states resulting in a narrow pickup of Texas but with Ohio narrowly holding Republican. What could cause a 40-state landslide, to include all of the Top 10 populous states, is the right candidate—and, yes, I mean Bernie Sanders—who goes after a 40-state landslide and strikes in just about every geographic region and who wins the U.S. Popular Vote by about +15 percentage points (closer to +20 would be better). 

If the United States presidential election of 2020 ends up a Republican hold, those 7 of the Top 10 for 2016’s Donald Trump—which include Pennsylvania and Michigan—will carry for his re-election. If that happens, that means the Democrats will not flip the presidency again until 2024. By then, we could get a Top 10 populous states ranking which looks like this (for the next Democratic presidential pickup winner and, following that, the next Republican presidential pickup winner):

2024 DEMOCRATIC PICKUP 
1. California
2. New York or Illinois
3. Illinois or New York
4. North Carolina (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote may fall here]
5. Florida or Georgia (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote may fall here]
6. Georgia or Florida (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote may fall here]
7. Texas (pickup)
8. Michigan — a narrow Democratic pickup or a narrow Republican hold if the range of carried states are still 26 to 32 (52 to 64 percent)
9. Pennsylvania — at least a half-point more Republican than Michigan; flips if a pickup-winning Democrat carries at least 40 states
10. Ohio — between three to six points more Republican than Pennsylvania

[ESTIMATED] 2032 REPUBLICAN PICKUP WINNER
1. Ohio
2. Pennsylvania
3. Michigan
4. Texas (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote may fall here]
5. Georgia or Florida (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote may fall here]
6. Florida or Georgia (pickup)
[U.S. Popular Vote may fall here]
7. North Carolina (pickup)
8. Illinois or New York — a narrow Republican pickup or a narrow Democratic hold
9. New York or Illinois — flips if a pickup-winning Republican carries at least 40 states
10. California — a winning Republican who exceeds carriage of 40 states

Notice, by comparison of 2008 and 2016, where a 2024 and 2032 Texas and Ohio would be trending. Remember that just four elections, since after the Civil War, saw a presidential winner carry all the nation’s Top 10 populous states. As Texas is trending away from the Republicans and toward the Democrats—and I would go so far as to say it will become a bellwether state—Ohio is trending away from bellwether toward the Republicans.

This is not incomprehensible. With the electoral pattern established since 1992, plenty of former bellwether states left that status to partisan-identify with one of the major two parties: Missouri (1904 to 2004, minus one), Tennessee (1912 to 2004, minus two), and Kentucky (same record as Tennessee since 1956) are now very red; California (in 22 of the 25 elections of the 20th century), Illinois (same record as California, except 1960, since 1920), and Delaware (all elections of the 1950s to 1990s) are now very blue. Ohio can follow.

In the midterm elections of 2018, none of Ohio’s 16 congressional Districts flipped Democratic as that party won a net gain of +40 (or, pending eventual outcome with North Carolina #09, +41) seats for a new majority. The 2018 Democrats flipped the U.S. House with aid from 21 states (or 22 states pending the eventual outcome in North Carolina). Texas, however, delivered +2 pickups to the 2018 U.S. House Democrats: Lizzie Fletcher unseated John Culberson in Texas #07, an area including western Houston; former NFL player Colin Allred unseated Pete Sessions in Texas #32, an area including northeast Dallas. (Both congressional districts—won in 2012 by Mitt Romney in excess of +15 percentage points and Democratic pickups for Hillary Clinton in 2016—have less than 50 percent voters who are white.)

Ohio and Texas: Their Trending Counties

In Ohio, Lake County (Painesville) had been a bellwether county in terms of its margins. In 2016, it gave Trump a margin of +7 in excess of his statewide margin. An extra +11 points came from Ottawa County (Port Clinton), which has carried for Ohio winners since 1948. (In the 2018 Ohio gubernatorial election, a Republican hold for Mike DeWine, Lake County was nearly +5.50 and Ottawa County nearly +7.50 more Republican than the state of Ohio.) And Montgomery County (Dayton) flipped and carried Republican, for Trump, the first time for that party since 1988. (Ditto Portage County, with its county seat Ravenna, from the area of Akron.)

In Texas, both Dallas (Dallas) and Harris (Houston) counties became Democratic pickups in 2008, for Obama, and their margins vs. the state have been trending significantly more Democratic than the state ever since. In 2016, Bexar County (San Antonio), which carried for all presidential winners from 1972 to 2012, carried for losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by +13 while Trump took the state by +9, a margin spread of +22 points more Democratic. There is also the fact that, in the 2018 U.S. Senate, losing Democratic nominee Beto O’Rourke won a pickup of Tarrant County (Fort Worth), the best bellwether county in Texas for statewide outcomes. In the last five presidential elections of 2000 to 2016, the margins spread in Tarrant County vs. Texas were: R+2.64; R+2.51; D+0.06; D+0.09; and D+0.38. In that 2018 U.S. Senate race, Republican Ted Cruz was re-elected with a margin of +2.56 (down from his first election in 2012 of +15.84). Democrat Beto O’Rourke flipped Tarrant County by +0.69. That made Tarrant County vs. Texas a margin spread of D+3.25. Winning key counties with an excess of bonus points in the margins are a key to Democrats flipping Texas.

The streak may be coming to an end in Ohio. While its record dates back to 1896, and that it since voted with all winners with exceptions of 1944 and 1960, its unbroken streak began in 1964. Ohio has been carried in all of the last 14 elections of 1964 to 2016. (If one was born after Election Day in 1964, which was November 3, 1964, one can say “Ohio has carried in all U.S. presidential elections during my lifetime.”) The historical record of streaks is shared by Nevada and New Mexico. Since the latter entered the union and voted for the first time in 1912, the two had an unbroken streak of 60 years and 16 consecutive elections from 1912 to 1972. If Trump wins re-election in 2020, Ohio will carry. That will make it 15 in a row. But, a re-elected Trump could manifest with an even stronger 2020 margin in Ohio—and that can spread to neighboring Rust Belt states Pennsylvania and Michigan—to make it difficult for a 2024 Democratic pickup winner to flip not just the neighbors but most especially the Buckeye State.

A Map for the Potential, Future Top 10

The following is a map, with appropriate hues reflecting potential for the next Democratic and, after that, Republican presidential pickups involving the potential for such trending Top 10 states.