Now that special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 United States presidential election is complete, and that the report has been submitted to U.S. attorney general William Barr, several thoughts occur to me.
This is not about the investigation itself.
It occurs to me that, if a 2020 Donald Trump wins re-election as the 45th U.S. president, this may be key to why. A president winning a second term has mostly to do with the conditions. The economy. Employment. But, this two- to three-year pushed narrative—which, according to the book Shattered, was devised by the losing 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign—has finally turned people off. And turned people off to the Democrats.
According to Poll: Half of Americans say Trump is victim of a 'witch hunt' as trust in Mueller erodes, “A 52 percent majority say they have little or no trust in the president’s denials that his 2016 campaign colluded with Moscow in the election that put him in the Oval Office.”
The problem with this, for the Democrats, is that the electorate has a way of protecting an incumbent U.S. president. It is not in their nature to want to be against a sitting president. The last two incumbent presidents who became unseated were Jimmy Carter, in 1980, and George Bush, in 1992. What they had in common was bad economies having struck on their watch and which sunk their attempts to win a second term. The economy we have right now does not compare to 1980 and 1992. So, that is an advantage for Trump heading into 2020. But, the Democrats having pushed this Russia interference in the 2016 presidential election propaganda now makes Trump look like he was targeted; that was the victim.
When an opposition-party challenger unseats an incumbent president, part of it has to do with nominee offering a vision that is a change in direction. Ronald Reagan did that against Jimmy Carter in 1980. Bill Clinton did that against George Bush in 1992. For those who believe the Democratic nominee in 2020 will do that against Trump—Any Blue Will Not Do.
This is why I perceive there being only two 2020 Democratic candidates who have the ability to unseat Trump: Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Hawaii #02 U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. Sanders, because of his progressive agenda he describes as democratic socialism (which should be sold as being a social democrat) of Medicare for All, free public college tuition, and with addressing the problems of income inequality; Gabbard, for some of those reasons but, and this is where she is better than Sanders (and all other candidates), on foreign policies and for confronting the endless wars with the powerful and overfunded Military Industrial Complex.
The problem with Trump is that, even though the economy and jobs conditions are considered positive (I am not saying they are strong), he still polls poorly. Gallup, with a report on March 14, 2019, has Trump at 39 percent. (Link: Trump Job Approval Falters After a Month of Higher Ratings.) Why? I think it has to do with the distaste many have for Trump. Say what you want about him—one thing people can agree with is that Trump is controversial. But, it is also necessary to look at more than one source. CNN reported on March 18, 2019 that Trump is doing even better. “A majority give the President positive reviews for his handling of the nation’s economy (51% approve), and his overall rating has ticked up to 42% in the new poll.” (Link: CNN Poll: 7 in 10 say economy in good shape — and Trump may reap the benefits.)
How much of these polls do I believe? I have to take them one at a time. And they are usually followed by figuring whether they overall jibe with reality. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind where we are at right now, with this blog topic posted on March 25, 2019, and for when elections of 2020 will arrive. What can happen, with just over 19 months until the November 3, 2020 general election, is that Trump’s job-approval percentage can increase. But, it could also end up at a level similar to now. (I have it figured Trump must reap at least 48 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote to prevent a Democratic opponent from unseating him. And, frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up winning two elections without a majority in the U.S. Popular Vote.)
This witch hunt against Trump can re-elect Trump. The innate tendencies of an electorate protecting an incumbent U.S. president, that incumbent U.S. president having become a victim of a witch hunt, and the opposition-party trying to control not only how the party operates but exactly who is permitted to win their party’s presidential nomination—that, and with even more reasons, can add up to re-election for Trump. If the 2020 Democrats nominate yet another hollow corporatist—be it 47th U.S. vice president Joe Biden, former Texas #16 U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, California U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, or anyone else down the line who would have the blessing of the party establishment (which is, frankly, the Clintons)—that will make re-election for Trump much more within the realm of possibility than Democratic Party Loyalists will acknowledge.
I leave Progressives Chat reader with the following videos (which were published on the night of Sunday, March 24, 2019) from The Jimmy Dore Show:
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