Required for Democrats: Medicare for All

I don’t want to be loose with predictions. But, I do get the sense that the White House opposition party, the Democratic Party, is faced with this one issue they will not be able to get around when it comes to their wanting to win back power at that level.

The Democrats are not going to win back the presidency without a nominee specifically supporting Medicare for All.

A 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, not specifically supporting Medicare for All, will not unseat Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump.

In the midterm elections of 2018, with the usual historical pattern of the White House opposition party winning the overall congressional gains, the Democrats were able to get away with that. That is because a midterm election will have around a 30-percentage dropoff, for example, with those voting for U.S. House by comparison to those who do so likewise in a presidential cycle. (The 2018 midterm had more participation. So, it wasn’t quite a 30-percent dropoff. It was a 12-percent drop-off. The U.S. House is the best comparison given that 100 percent of its members are on the schedule for both presidential and midterm election cycles.) From 1914 (think 17th Amendment) to 2018, there were 27 midterm elections from which 24 were won with overall congressional seat gains by the White House opposition party. From those midterms, the president’s party saw one or both houses of Congress flip to the opposition party in 1918, 1930, 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2014. This has been more frequent over the last 25 years. (Each of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump—two presidents from the Republican Party; two presidents from the Democratic Party—held same-party majorities when they entered office and ended up losing them with the midterm elections of one or both of Years #02 and/or #06 of their presidencies.) So, the 2018 Democrats were able to capitalize: by their message of Republican incumbent president Donald Trump and Russia and his being horrifying (and so are the Republicans in Congress); and, with the fact that he and his Republican Congress did not get rid of the Affordable Care Act, Trump depressed motivation of participation by his party base to prevent the Democrats from flipping the U.S. House. (In 2018, people did #VoteBlueNoMatterWho.) But, midterm and presidential elections are not one in the same. Not the same in participation. If people vote in just one type of election cycle, they vote in a presidential election.

The 2020 Democrats cannot unseat Donald Trump running on how badly he behaves and/or how dangerous he is without the Democrats having a bold and progressive agenda.

Medicare for All is required.

If the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries voters vote the nomination to anyone who does not specifically support Medicare for All—and support it convincingly—those 2020 Democratic presidential primaries voters will be saying they are okay with re-election for Donald Trump.