On Friday, February 22, 2019, Gallup reported its latest polls for approvals and disapprovals for the job performance of current and 45th U.S. president Donald Trump (R–New York).
The report consists of state-to-state polls for where there is approval-vs.-disapproval for Trump.
Gallup has Trump’s national approval at 42 percent.
Here is a link to that report: Trump Job Approval 50% or Higher in 17 States in 2018.
In 2016, Donald Trump was elected with 30 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and an original 306 electoral votes. Among them were his six pickup states, four of which rank among the Top 10 in population, and which combine for +99 electoral votes: Florida, +29; Pennsylvania, +20; Ohio, +18; Michigan, +16; Wisconsin, +10; and Iowa, +06. Trump also won a Republican pickup of the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, +01, to give him 2012 Mitt Romney’s 24 carried states, and their 206 electoral votes, with the combined net gain of +100 electoral votes, to arrive at an original 306 electoral votes. (There were two faithless electors.)
Gallup reports there is indication that none of the states from the 2016 column of losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would flip to the 2020 Republican column to carry for re-electing Donald Trump. To date, there has been no single U.S. presidential election’s electoral map’s results which were later duplicated; and, of course, that means exactly. It would become a historical first if a 2020 Trump won re-election with exactly the same map from his first election of 2016.
I recognize Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will be the most instrumental states for deciding the winner of Election 2020. In fact, I wrote about the topic here: Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. In 2016, and with looking at the percentage-points margins by which this Rust Belt trio carried, Wisconsin, his No. 28 best state with a margin of +0.76, was the tipping point state and the 270th electoral vote for Trump. Pennsylvania, his No. 29 best state with a margin of +0.72, was his 290th electoral vote. And Michigan, his No. 30 best state (of a carried 30 states) with a margin of +0.22, was his 306th original electoral vote.
My conclusion is this: In 2016, Donald Trump received 45.93 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote to the 48.02 percent for Hillary Clinton. That was a margin of Democratic +2.09. Trump, in order to win re-election, cannot see his –2.09 decline. If he does, he cannot lose by more than –3 percentage points in the U.S. Popular Vote. (He would have to hope to lose no more than Michigan and Pennsylvania while keeping Wisconsin for its 270th electoral vote. Over the last ten elections, from 1980 to 2016, they have carried the same in all but one—in 1988.) It would be much more likely that, should he win re-election, Trump would gain from his –2.09 popular-vote margin—even if he did not increase enough to flip the U.S. Popular Vote. While Gallup talks about a 50-percent threshold, and that is commonly cited elsewhere as being supposedly necessary, re-election for Trump would likely see him follow 42nd U.S. president Bill Clinton (D–Arkansas): Trump, like Clinton, would win both his elections with a plurality in the U.S. Popular Vote. Since 2016 Trump-vs.-Hillary combined for 93.95 percent—go ahead and call it 94 percent—it is more likely the major two-party matchup, in 2020, will combine for more than that 94 percent, It would typically end up in the 97 to 99 percent range, which would leave the remainder to combine for candidates outside the two major political parties. I would say that, should he win re-election, Trump would have to receive at least 48 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote. He could lose the U.S. Popular Vote 48–49 percent, or 48–50 percent, but, likely, not worse than 48–51 percent.
Above is a map. This keeps in mind, from the report by Gallup, the apparent status of the race. I rate the U.S. presidential election of 2020 generally a Tossup. For Trump, in any state he is down by –13 or worse…I color it in blue. Why? Because at 42 percent, he would need to gain six more percent; not to be confused with six percentage points, he would need to gain, where he is down, at least +12 percentage points. Given he is the incumbent, in any state he is above…I color it in red. In Ohio, where is even, I leave it in yellow. (Margins wise, the long-established bellwether is trending toward the Republicans.) What we have is a map in which all of 2016 Hillary Clinton’s Democratic states, worth 232 electoral votes, are in blue. For the states, and congressional districts, worth 125 electoral votes, and which are currently looking good for Republican incumbent Trump—those are in red. The ones in yellow, to indicate Tossup, speak to the potential of Election 2020 ending up either a Republican hold or a Democratic pickup. They combine for 181 electoral votes.
I am listing all 50 states, plus applicable congressional districts, in order of Gallup’s reported poll margins, with each state, and with a tracking of their cumulative electoral votes. Those on the following list which were 2016 Republican pickups, for Trump, will have an asterisk. Since Trump is the incumbent president of the United States, the list will begin, and go in descending order, of his positive [+] to negative [–] percentage-points margins.
Here are the states with Gallup’s numbers, followed by their polling margins, as well as a tracking of their cumulative electoral votes. They are listed in order of favorability for Trump. (States take higher ranking, for Trump, based on their percentage-points margins from 2016. For those not favorable to Trump, a state that was closer to him in 2016 will be listed first. For those with the same percentage-points margin, I list the one closest to Trump based on its percentage from Gallup.)
REPUBLICAN [TRUMP]
— Nebraska #03 — No Numbers; Statewide Polls Only! — (Cumulative 01; Reverse 538)
01. West Virginia | 62–36 | +26 | (Cum. 06; Rev. 537)
02. Wyoming | 61–36 | +25 | (Cum. 09; Rev. 532)
03. North Dakota | 58–36 | +22 | (Cum. 12; Rev. 529)
04. South Dakota | 58–41 | +17 | (Cum. 15; Rev. 526)
05. Alaska | 56–40 | +16 | (Cum. 18; Rev. 523)
06. Mississippi | 56–41 | +15 | (Cum. 24; Rev. 520)
07. Alabama | 55–41 | +14 | (Cum. 33; Rev. 514)
08. Tennessee | 54–41 | +13 | (Cum. 44; Rev. 503)
09. Arkansas | 53–41 | +12 | (Cum. 50; Rev. 494)
10. Kentucky | 53–43 | +10 | (Cum. 58; Rev. 488)
11. Missouri | 52–43 | +09 | (Cum. 68; Rev. 480)
12. Oklahoma | 51–44 | +07 | (Cum. 75; Rev. 470)
13. Idaho | 51–44 | +07 | (Cum. 79; Rev. 463)
14. Montana | 51–45 | +06 | (Cum. 82; Rev. 459)
15. Utah | 50–45 | +05 | (Cum. 88; Rev. 456)
16. Kansas | 50–46 | +04 | (Cum. 94; Rev. 450)
17. South Carolina | 50–46 | +04 | (Cum. 103; Rev. 444)
18. Louisiana | 49–45 | +04 | (Cum. 111; Rev. 435)
19. Nebraska [statewide] | 49–47 | +02 | (Cum. 113; Rev. 427)
— Nebraska #01 — No Numbers; Statewide Polls Only! — (Cum. 114; Rev. 425)
20. Indiana | 48–47 | +01 | (Cumulative 125; Reverse 424)
TOSSUP
21. * Ohio | 48–48 | Even | (Cumulative 143; Rev. 413)
22. North Carolina | 45–50 | –05 | (Cum. 158; Rev. 395)
23. * Iowa | 45–51 | –06 | (Cum. 164; Rev. 380)
24. Georgia | 44–52 | –08 | (Cum. 180; Rev. 374)
25. * Florida | 43–51 | –08 | (Cum. 209; Rev. 358)
26. Arizona | 43–52 | –09 | (Cum. 220; Rev. 329)
— * Maine #02 — No Numbers; Statewide Polls Only! — (Cum. 221; Rev. 318)
— Nebraska #02 — No Numbers; Statewide Polls Only! — (Cum. 222; Rev. 317)
27. * Wisconsin | 42–53 | –10 | (Cum. 232; Rev. 316)
28. Texas | 41–52 | –11 | (Cum. 270; Rev. 306) — Suggested Tipping Point State
29. * Pennsylvania | 42–54 | –12 | (Cum. 290; Rev. 268)
30. * Michigan | 42–54 | –12 | (Cumulative 306; Reverse 248)
DEMOCRATIC
31. Nevada | 40–55 | –15 | (Cumulative 312; Reverse 232)
32. Oregon | 40–56 | –16 | (Cum. 319; Rev. 226)
33. Minnesota | 39–57 | –18 | (Cum. 329; Rev. 219)
34. Virginia | 40–57 | –17 | (Cum. 342; Rev. 209)
35. Delaware | 40–57 | –17 | (Cum. 345; Rev. 196)
36. Colorado | 39–56 | –17 | (Cum. 354; Rev. 193)
37. New Mexico | 38–55 | –17 | (Cum. 359; Rev. 184)
38. New Hampshire | 35–58 | –23 | (Cum. 363; Rev. 179)
39. Connecticut | 36–59 | –23 | (Cum. 370; Rev. 175)
40. Washington | 36–59 | –23 | (Cum. 382; Rev. 168)
41. Maine [statewide] | 37–61 | –24 | (Cum. 384; Rev. 156)
42. Rhode Island | 36–60 | –24 | (Cum. 388; Rev. 154)
43. New Jersey | 35–59 | –24 | (Cum. 402; Rev. 150)
44. Illinois | 35–61 | –26 | (Cum. 422; Rev. 136)
— Maine #01 — No Numbers; Statewide Polls Only! — (Cum. 423; Rev. 116)
45. New York | 32–62 | –30 | (Cum. 452; Rev. 115)
46. Maryland | 31–65 | –34 | (Cum. 462; Rev. 86)
47. California | 29–65 | –36 | (Cum. 517; Rev. 76)
48. Massachusetts | 29–67 | –38 | (Cum. 528; Rev. 21)
49. Vermont | 28–49 | –41 | (Cum. 531; Rev. 10)
50. Hawaii | 26–69 | –43 | (Cum. 535; Rev. 07)
— District of Columbia — Statewide Polls Only! — (Cumulative 538 | Reverse 03)
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