Effective with the date of this blog topic…we are now three months from the general election of the 2022 midterm elections. They are scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2022. The following is my current assessment for U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Governors.
• U.S. House: The 2022 Democrats’s backs are against the wall as the outcome for the 2020 Republicans, who lost, was 213 seats. Majority is 218. In 2020, the U.S. House Republicans lost the U.S. Popular Vote by –3.12 percentage points—an outcome of Democratic 50.81% vs. Republican 47.69%—as their U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President was a margin of Republican –4.45/Democratic +4.45. (Joe Biden won a Democratic pickup of the presidency as he unseated Republican incumbent Donald Trump. Typically, the percentage-points margins for U.S. President vs. U.S. House run closely to each other. The spread in 2020 was 1.33 percentage points.) Pattern, specifically in midterm elections in which the White House opposition party flips the U.S. House, is this: A net gain of +3.50 to +4 seats with each percentage point nationally shifted. The 2022 Republican would win over the U.S. House with a national percentage-points margin of –1. With Joe Biden’s low job-approval numbers, this will come easily for a pickup-winning Republican Party with likelihood in their favor at the full 100 percent.
• U.S. Senate: In Year #02 of the presidencies of predecessors Donald Trump, in 2018, and Barack Obama, in 2010, the White House opposition party flipped the U.S. House but not the U.S. Senate. The 2022 Republicans should have not a problem, given the current makeup of 50-vs.-50 (current Democratic control because they are the White House party), but they do have a problem: Pennsylvania. In this Open Seat race (retiring Republican incumbent Pat Toomey), the Republican nominee Mehmet “Dr.” Oz is trailing in the polls to the Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman. (The Democrats also lead the polls for Governor of Pennsylvania.) If this seat flips, it would move the 2022 Democrats to an outright majority of 51 seats unless the Republicans counter-flip between Arizona (Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly) and Georgia (Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock)…with additional consideration for Nevada (Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto) and New Hampshire (Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan). Given their current 50 seats, of a necessary 51, are already 98 percent from reaching majority, the U.S. Senate should be an easy majority-control pickup for the 2022 Republicans. This is a Tossup.
• U.S. Governors: Republicans already have a majority number of governorships—28 to the 22 for the Democrats—but this is not about a states count. This is about…the majority of The People. Will more people be governed by Republicans or Democrats? It is easier to recognize this with the cumulative number of congressional districts because District of Columbia (a.k.a. Washington, D.C.) is not a state. (The U.S. House, unlike the U.S. Senate, is proportional representation.) There are 435 congressional districts throughout the nation’s 50 states. Democrats currently have majority with 226 to the 209 for the Republicans. The 2022 Democrats are favored to win pickups of both Massachusetts (retiring Republican incumbent Charlie Baker) and Maryland (term-limited Republican incumbent Larry Hogan). That would bring the Democrats to 243 to the Republicans’s 192 congressional districts. According to polls, where Republicans are favored to flip is with Kansas (Democratic incumbent Laura Kelly) and, for now, nothing else with certainty. I don’t necessarily buy into this given the general, national shift—for the 2022 midterm elections—favors the White House opposition Republican Party. A pickup of Kansas would bring the Republicans back up to 196 congressional districts. They would need additional pickup states combining for 22 more congressional districts. I consider Maine (Democratic incumbent Janet Mills) because its 2nd Congressional District—which should end up a 2022 Republican pickup for U.S. House—has realigned to the Republicans. Maine’s 2nd Congressional District was a 2016 Republican pickup for Donald Trump (who also carried it in 2020). It is approximately half the statewide vote. This generally makes the state of Maine competitive. (Due to the differences in Maine’s two congressional districts—its 1st Congressional District is home to Portland—is why Maine was the only 2020 state which did not vote for the same party to carry it for U.S. President and U.S. Senate.) Nevada (Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak) is also in play. Some think New Mexico (Democratic incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham), which historically votes in presidential elections like Nevada, could also flip because its governor also does not have high approval. If all that were to manifest, the Republicans would be back up to 205 congressional districts. That is not enough. And this leads to the states I recognize—and had previously written and published (Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan)—are the current leading bellwether states. The lowest populous of the three would get the Republicans up to 213. Still not enough. So, the Republicans need to flip at least one of the two others which are Top 10 populous states. Since I do not assume the scenario I have illustrated will play out to that exact extent, the 2022 Republicans will likely need to flip both Top 10 states. That, in reality, they need all three. The 2022 Democrats currently lead the polls in both Top 10 states. I rate U.S. Governors a Democratic hold with a likelihood of 60 percent.
Noteworthy: The referenced link dates back to April 2018. And, four years later, it still applies. I may need to write and publish an update about the electoral influence of Top 10 populous states Pennsylvania and Michigan and non-Top 10 state Wisconsin. The United States presidential elections of 2016 and 2020—with both major parties having prevailed—included these three states. (They are the only ones on a streak—four consecutive cycles—and will likely carry again for the prevailing party in 2024.) The midterm elections of 2018, for overall results, included these three Rust Belt states. And, even though Michigan is not on this year’s schedule for U.S. Senate, the overall results—U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Governors—will include the votes by the citizens in all three states. (The map for the 2022 Republicans flipping the U.S. House will likely include net gains in all three states.) In this period of U.S. history, it may be that our elections are determined by The People in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
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