Update: 2026 Midterms … Texas … Michigan

Now that September has arrived, we are two months from the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

A quick summary follows.

Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump is, according to recent polls, now under 40 percent in job approval. It positions the White House opposition Democratic Party in electoral advantage.

I predict, in general, the following:

🇺🇸 U.S. HOUSE 🇺🇸 Democratic majority-control pickup for at least 218 seats

🇺🇸 U.S. SENATE 🇺🇸 Democratic majority-control pickup for at least 51 seats

🇺🇸 U.S. GOVERNORS 🇺🇸 Democratic pickup for overall majority for at least 26 governorships

I will not go into too many details, at this time, but will touch on a couple related points.

Can Ds win Texas [Part II]?

In the March 1, 2026 blog, “ Can Ds win Texas [Part I]?” I wrote about the 2026 Texas primaries for U.S. Senate. The nominations are now settled: Republican nominee Ken Paxton vs. Democratic nominee James Talarico.

My prediction (two months out): Democratic pickup for Talarico.

To answer this subtopic’s question … yes.

Texas has been generally trending away from the Republicans and toward the Democrats. I would say it has been trending toward possible bellwether. From red to red violet.

Over the last, say, 25 years … Texas went from the Republicans’s No. 10 (in 2000 and 2004 for George W. Bush) to No. 15 (in 2008 and 2012 for John McCain and Mitt Romney) to No. 22 (in 2016 for Donald Trump) to No. 23 (in 2020 for Trump) to No. 20 (in 2024 for Trump). This means, for the Democrats, Texas has trended to their No. 41 (in 2000 and 2004 for Al Gore and John Kerry) to No. 36 (in 2008 and 2012 for Barack Obama) to No. 29 (in 2016 for Hillary Clinton) to No. 28 (in 2020 for Joe Biden) to No. 31 (in 2024 for Kamala Harris).

In case this isn’t clear: In 2020, when Biden unseated Trump, the former carried 25 states. His No. 28 best was Texas. Biden was three states from flipping and carrying Texas.

In 2024, Texas was Harris’s No. 31 best state. While that seemed like a setback, her Nos. 28 to 31 best states were separated by only 0.58 percentage points. In descending order: No. 28 Florida (–13.10); No. 29 Alaska (–13.13); No. 30 Iowa (–13.21); and No. 31 Texas (–13.68). Inconsequential differences.

If Election 2028 results in a Democratic pickup for U.S. President, Texas can be won over if the winning candidate carries at least 28 states. Since 1992, the average number of states carried by prevailing Democrats—Bill Clinton (32 and 31), Obama (28 and 26), and Biden (25)—are 28.

Returning to this 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race: Talarico has been leading in most polls during the Summer. A YouTube channel, “The TEC Show,” published a YouTube video showing why Paxton isn’t strong.

Prediction: Abdul El–Sayed Will Win U.S. Senate in Michigan

I participated in Due Dissidence’s August 4, 2026 livestream on Primary Night from my home state, Michigan. Due to the closeness of the primary outcome, and how there was such a battle, co-host Keaton Weiss has been thinking a divide may cause a Republican pickup for Mike Rogers.

I don’t think so.

I predict a 2026 Democratic hold: The next United States senator from Michigan will be Abdul El–Sayed.

Given I also predict a Democratic majority-control pickup for the U.S. Senate … the route to getting to 51 involves the following pickups (in probable order): North Carolina; Maine; Alaska; Ohio; Texas; and Iowa.

This would mean Michigan gets retained by the 2026 Democrats.

It is pattern.

Since the 1990s, in midterm elections which resulted in a party switch for control for the U.S. Senate, the White House opposition party retained all seats … before they won sufficient numbers of pickups.

🔵 1994 U.S. SENATE 🔴 In the Year #02 presidency of Democratic incumbent Bill Clinton, the minority Republicans entered with 44 seats. They won a pickup of +8 for a majority 52 seats.

🔴 2006 U.S. SENATE 🔵 In the Year #06 presidency of Republican incumbent George W. Bush, the minority Democrats entered with 45 seats. They won a pickup of +6 for a majority 51 seats.

🔵 2014 U.S. SENATE 🔴 In the Year #06 presidency of Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, the minority Republicans entered with 45 seats. They won a pickup of +9 for a majority 54 seats.

There is more to consider.

Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Michigan is a leading bellwether state. They have the longest active streak with having carried for U.S. presidential election winners—five consecutive elections—in 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024. 

Michigan has particularly stood out because no other state came closer to matching with its percentage-points margin to that of the U.S. Popular Vote. In 2020, Biden won nationally by D+4.45 and Michigan by D+2.78. In 2024, Trump won nationally by R+1.47 and Michigan by R+1.41.

Michigan has had similar proximity with its popular vote vs, the national for the U.S. House.

The last two U.S. midterm elections in which the U.S. House—on the watch of a Republican U.S. president—switched to the Democrats were in 2006 (Bush) and 2018 (Trump). Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by D+8.01 and D+8.56. (That is, like, 53 to 45 percent.)

I suspect this may also turn out to be the case here in 2026.

If that does play out, and the U.S. House popular vote in Michigan ends up D+8, the state would follow its 2024 outcome of R+0.78 (then-outcome: Republicans 48.75% vs. Democrats 47.97%) with a near-shift of D+9 and a net gain of U.S. House seats, from the state, for the 2026 Democrats. They enter with 6 of the state’s 13. Some sources think Democrats may flip up to +3.

My sense with 2026 Michigan is that there will be no more than a 3-point to 5-point differential for Democrats with winning Governor of Michigan (Jocelyn Benson) and U.S. Senate (El–Sayed) …in connection with the state’s U.S. House vote (which would likewise connect with the national percentage-points margin). Suppose a U.S. House and Michigan popular vote outcome of D+8. Benson, following term-limited Gretchen Whitmer’s 2022 re-election margin of D+10.53, may win by a margin up to D+12. El–Sayed may end up winning by a margin which is at least D+4. (This means D+12 suggests 55% vs. 43%. And D+4 suggests 51% vs. 47%. This is an environment of D+8, meaning 53% vs. 45%.)

I have a chart which presents a scenario for a 2026 Democratic majority-control pickup for the U.S. Senate. They rank the involved states’s seats for where they would likely slot. What also gets taken into account are an average separation in the percentage-points margins by which they carry. So, if the 2026 Democrats win a majority of up to 53 seats, the 53rd seat is the lowest margin. Those slotting above it would be won in higher increments of +0.25 or +0.33 or +0.50 or +0.66 or +0.75 or +1.00. It is an attempt to gauge—to envision—where some of these winners, especially pickup winners, would place. It gives an idea with Talarico. It certainly does that with El–Sayed. 

Fifty Five

Sunday, August 16, 2026 marks my 55th birthday.

I now am able to get a Senior Discount at what few establishments offer a Senior Discount to customers who are a minimum 55 years old.

I know one place where I can take advantage of this.

Every Thursday.

Congratulations to me!

In the meantime: I will take a break from a usual blog topic, on politics, and save such content for Comments. The next topic will publish Tuesday, September 1, 2026.

Prediction: Nomination for Abdul El–Sayed

I am predicting, with next Tuesday’s [August 4, 2026] primaries in my home state, the 2026 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate from Michigan will be won by Abdul El–Sayed.

On [Monday,] July 27, 2026, a final primary debate was held between El–Sayed and Haley Stevens.

Over the last several days, and given Mallory McMorrow dropped out July 5 (a week after early-voter ballots were mailed), and that El–Sayed has been leading nearly every poll since May, it looks like last-minute voters are rallying for El–Sayed.

I have seen polls suggesting double-digit percentage-points margins—El–Sayed over Stevens—such as +11, +14, +15, +16, and +17.

What I do not know, and will find out afterward, are the total votes cast.

I suspect there will be, expressed in hundreds of thousands, about 600,000 votes cast.

I sense El–Sayed will win statewide by a raw-votes margin of roughly +100,000 … but it may end up closer to +125,000. What would be extraordinary is, say, +150,000.

I decided to look at past primary outcomes, for U.S. Senate, in Michigan. 

This was with a focus on those who won first-term elections. 

I traced back to the 1910s, the decade of the 17th Amendment (direct elections of U.S. senators by states’s voters), and found something interesting.

Two such primaries, for an eventual first-term general-election winner, were won by single-digit percentage-points margins.

In 1936—re-election to a second term for Democratic incumbent U.S. president Franklin Roosevelt (he carried 46 of 48 states)—a switch occurred in Michigan’s U.S. Senate election from Republican to Democratic for Prentiss M. Brown. In the primary, Brown won a multi-person race with 36.32% vs. 34.16% for top runner-up Louis B. Ward. Margin: Brown +2.16 percentage points.

The 1994 United States midterm elections was a Republican wave—on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Bill Clinton—in which both houses of Congress switched to the Republicans. Michigan’s U.S. Senate election was a Republican pickup for Spencer Abraham. In the primary, Abraham won with 51.95% vs. 48.02% for Ronna Romney (ex-sister-in-law to Mitt). Margin: Abraham +3.93 percentage points.

For those first-term election winners who won their primaries by double digits, the lowest was for Democratic politician Donald Riegle Jr., who died April 24, 2026 at age 88, back in 1976. Riegle received 44.31%, in a multi-person race, vs. 28.34% for top runner-up Richard H. Austin. Margin: Riegle +15.97 percentage points.

A double-digit, percentage-points margin win would fall in line with the majority of past outcomes, in this 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

I am not worried about nailing down the numbers. What I hope for is the rock-solid victory. I especially want Metro Detroit tri-county areas to carry. They are home to nearly 1 of every 3 people who live in Michigan. So, I hope Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb counties will carry for El–Sayed. 

May it be a sweepingly sweet victory for Abdul El–Sayed.

I will leave this with a video clip, below, from Due Dissidence. It was Tuesday, June 23, 2026. New York held its primaries. I was a guest on the livestream. Just after those high-profile congressional primaries were called, I was asked to comment. I offered a particular insight which relates to this blog topic.

Note: The next blog topic will publish on my birthday, Sunday, August 16, 2026.

Flashback 2016: Ds’s Rigged Primary

Wednesday, July 22, 2026 will be the 10th anniversary of the Wikileaks’s report about the Democratic National Committee having rigged their 2016 primary—and, ultimately—nomination for Hillary Clinton.

This was also a 2016 Democratic National Committee having rigged their 2016 primary against Bernie Sanders.

When that happened…it was not just a rigging against Sanders but also against every person who voted the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination for the U.S senator from Vermont.

After coming across the report, and absorbing all the information I took in and processed, I made a decision.

I refrained in the general election of 2016 from voting for any person affiliated with the Democratic Party.

To this day, I have not voted in a general election for any person affiliated with the Democratic Party.

Flashback 1976: North Fox Island of Child Sexual Crime

Before there was Jeffrey Epstein, there was the July 1976 report of Child Sexual Crimes on North Fox Island in Michigan.

This was owned by Francis Shelden (1928–1996), an entrepreneur and descendant to a former governor of Michigan, which violated children.

Back in that time, parents were more trusting. So why would it be a problem, given what opportunity, to send your child (usually a son), for away from home to be with a man, not married or in a relationship and also childless, who really likes hanging around children?

As described by Wikipedia, “Brother Paul's Children's Mission was an organization identified in July 1976 as a front for a child pornography ring operating out of North Fox Island in Lake Michigan. It was incorporated on June 18, 1975, and was advertised as an organization which "provide[d] services to children with reading problems, minor emotional counseling, and classes in physical fitness". During paid sessions on the island, boys would be filmed engaging in sex acts with each other and adults, and were occasionally prostituted to the Mission's wealthiest customers.”

For more on this case:

Wikipedia — Brother Paul's Children's Mission

From WDIV Ch. 04 (NBC-affiliated station in Detroit, Michigan) was this 2019 special on the “Oakland County Child Killer” (February 1976–March 1977) serial murder case. It included a segment on the crimes on North Fox Island which, on the historic timeline, had some overlap with the murders.

July 2026: Not a Good Start

July 2026 was not a good start.

Not for me.

I am not alone.

My area Detroit, Michigan closed out June and began July 2026 with near-100 degrees in temperatures. “Extreme Heat Warning.”

Friday, July 3, 2026—say, during the hour of 06:00 p.m. ET—delivered us storms which included up to 75 miles per hour in some areas. Lots of damage. (Including, as seen in the above picture, some trees.) Massive numbers of power outages. Thankfully, this did not include me. But as a subscriber of Comcast, my Internet was out for three days.

This is why this first of two blog topics, for July 2026, arrives late.

I was going to have a topic, related to the “insurgents” in recent Democratic primaries (New York on Tuesday, June 23, 2026; Colorado on Tuesday, June 30, 2026), but then we were hit with a scandal involving Graham Platner, the 2026 Democratic U.S. Senate nominee from Maine, and the dropout of Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow from Michgan. A bit of a ride. And, for me, one I did not want to take given the stressful experiences this first week of July 2026.

‘Israel is an irrational war machine’

Jamarl Thomas recently welcomed Garland Nixon as his guest.

In this video, published to YouTube on Wednesday, July 8, 2026, Nixon perhaps astutely described what has become of the U.S.’s partner under its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

The running time is just over 35 minutes.

The next blog topic will be published on Monday, July 20, 2026.

Mamdani. Platner. El–Sayed.

In the Democratic Party, three men have been greeted with opposition.

From Democrats.

But also from the supposed mainstream.

One of these men, beginning this past January 2026, is in office.

I think, without being overconfident, the other two men will arrive next year, in January 2027.

Here is a summary of the three gentlemen, seen above from left to right, for the 2025 and 2026 election cycles.

🔵 Zohran Mamdani. Born October 18, 1991, in Kampala, Uganda, Mamdani defeated for nomination numerous opponents which included former New York governor Andrèw Cuomo. In the general election of November 4, 2025, Mamdani defeated then-Independent Cuomo by +9.46 percentage points, carrying both male and female voters, and is now the 112th mayor of New York, New York.

🔵 Graham Platner. Born September 1, 1984, in Blue Hill, Maine, on June 9, 2026, Platner defeated Maine governor Janet Mills for the 2026 Democratic nomination for United States Senate from Maine. Platner will face, in the general election, five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins. She was first elected in 1996. But, after winning a fourth-term re-election in 2014 by a stunning +36.96 percentage points, she won her fifth term in 2020 by +8.59. What happened was Maine’s 1st Congressional District (home of Cumberland County which is location for Portland)—which nowadays delivers margins, for U.S. President, like California—became a Democratic pickup for losing nominee Sara Gideon. As a state, Maine realigned Democratic for U.S. President, with Bill Clinton, in 1992. With exceptions in 1912 and 1968. Maine has voted the same as Vermont—which ranked as the Democrats’s No. 1 best state for U.S. President in 2020 and 2024 (while California was their No. 5)—since the year 1856. This state has Angus King, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, in one seat. Like West Virginia—which realigned in 2000 to the Republicans, for U.S. President (nowadays their No. 2 best state), and both its U.S. Senate seats are now with the GOP—the time has come for the Democrats to have both U.S. Senate seats from Maine.

🔵 Abdul El–Sayed. Born October 31, 1984, in Detroit, Michigan, and with current base in Ann Arbor, the state holds its primaries on August 4, 2026. His competition for the 2026 Democratic nomination for United States Senate from Michigan are U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D–Michigan #11) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D–Michigan #08). El–Sayed is leading polls, for the most part, but the establishment—including a most recent endorsement by the Democrats’s No. 1 U.S. Senate leader Chuck Schumer—prefer Stevens. (We are now being inundated with Stevens-helped-Obama-save-the-Auto-Industry ads which are likely an extension from the Israel Lobby.) No matter…leading bellwether Michigan—which, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (neither has a 2026 U.S. Senate race), now holds the longest active streak carrying for U.S. presidential election winners (five consecutive cycles since and including 2008)—voters have not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1994. That was the Republican midterm election wave, on the watch of then-Democratic incumbent U.S. president Clinton, in which both houses of Congress flipped Republican. Last year a Republican won a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan, timed with a presidential election, dates back to 1972. That was re-election, to the tune of 49 states, for then-incumbent Richard Nixon. I consider this state’s 2026 U.S. Senate election a Likely Democratic Hold.

I will be keeping track of the Michigan race over the next seven weeks through Primary Day.

Flashback 1976: Martha Mitchell Dies

Martha Mitchell died at age 57 on [Monday,] May 31, 1976.

The 50th anniversary of her death has just passed.

Martha was a socialite who was also, when she died, the wife of John Mitchell.

John was United States attorney general in the administration of 37th U.S. president Richard Nixon.

Martha Mitchell, born September 2, 1918 in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, was an outspoken and controversial figure who was a big pain to Nixon. Martha became especially a problem for Nixon during the Watergate scandal—she was kidnapped in that same month as the break-in during June 1972—which eventually brought down Nixon’s presidency with his resignation in 1974.

Massie

The state of Kentucky will hold primaries next week.

Tuesday, May 19, 2026.

I am interested in the 2026 Republican primary for U.S. House from Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District.

This area includes eastern parts of Louisville.

I support the re-election bid for Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie.

He has angered Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump.

He has especially angered zionists such as Marian Adelson—who was the key funder for the 2024 campaign for Trump—and other billionaire zionists.

Recruited as a primary challenger to Massie is an ex-Democrat and a Never Trump figure, Ed Gallrein.

Latest polls leave me not choosing to predict the winner for this nomination.

Given the billions being spent on this primary race, by the zionist billionaires, and whatever level of influence by the low-approval puppet in the Oval Office, this is important.

2026 U.S. Midterm Elections: Six Months Out

Now that May 2026 has arrived, we are six months out from the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Scheduled date is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

At this time, I will not make detailed predictions. What I will do is summarize. This is with regard for United States House of Representatives, United States Senate, and United States Governors in Year #06 of the presidency of Republican Donald Trump.

🇺🇸 2026 U.S. HOUSE 🇺🇸 Democratic majority-control pickup

🇺🇸 2026 U.S. SENATE 🇺🇸 Democratic majority-control pickup

🇺🇸 2026 U.S. GOVERNORS 🇺🇸 Democratic pickup for a majority number of the nation’s governorships

Since the 17th Amendment, from the 1910s, there were five U.S. midterm elections in which citizens voted to have both houses of Congress switch to the White House opposition party. They occurred in 1918, 1946, 1954, 1994, and 2006. What also happened was the opposition party won the pickup to establish a majority number for U.S. Governors. 

Given Trump’s disastrous polling numbers—along with outcomes from the 2025 special elections, the 2025 general election, and 2026 special elections—this will not be difficult for Team Blue to achieve.

I will write and explain more when we are three months out from the general election. Look for a follow-up topic scheduled for Saturday, August 1, 2026.

Kim Iversen Interviews Marjorie Taylor Green

 

Kim Iversen welcomed former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green (R–Georgia #14).

This is a worthwhile interview. It was published to YouTube Sunday, April 5, 2026.

I like, for example, how Green explains the overwhelming members of Congress.

The timing of this interview is good for my the next blog topic. It will be titled, “Election 2026: Six Months Out.” It was publish Friday, May 1, 2026.

The 2026 MLB Season Begins

The new 2026 Major League Baseball season is now in its first full week.

I was sorry Milwaukee Brewers, which has been in only one World Series, as the American League pennant winners for 1982, did not make it into the 2025 World Series. Since their move to the National League, with expansion in 1998, they have not won any pennants in the NL.

I was bitterly disappointed in the 2025 Detroit Tigers. They won 59 of 93 games (.634) and, after receiving no meaningful July 31, 2025/Trade Deadline Day player upgrades, won 28 of the season’s remaining 69 games (.406) and even blew their AL Central division. They eked out a wild card slot.

I am a lifelong resident of Michigan. I have just one area MLB home team. The American League Detroit Tigers—the World Series-winning team in 1935, 1945, 1968, and 1984—are it.

I am not a sports fan, in general, so I have not been following since my childhood. But I would like to see my area National Football League team, Detroit Lions, finally in the Super Bowl. (They are an embarrassment given the franchise was established all the way back in 1930 and is one of just four NFL teams to have never played in one given Super Bowl. The first Super Bowl, won by Green Bay Packers, was in 1967.) I would like the MLB Detroit Tigers to win a fifth World Series while I am still alive. (I turn 55 in August.)

I don’t think my position is unique. The past World Series champs with the longest drought are Cleveland Indians (I hate their changed name Guardians). That was in 1948. Since 1979 there are several teams forty or more years also with a drought: Pittsburgh Pirates (1979), Baltimore Orioles (1983), Detroit Tigers (1984), and New York Mets (1986). I can also extend sympathy to Oakland (currently in Sacramento) Athletics (1989), Cincinnati Reds (1990), and Minnesota Twins (1991). Of all these teams, only Detroit Tigers and New York Mets have played in any Fall Classics since their last World Series championships.

An interesting understanding of the business are with these following videos. In fact: They motivate me to not give too much of my personal time to live-viewing MLB games here in 2026.

The first video is from a radio station in Detroit. Published to YouTube on October 15, 2024, just after that year’s Detroit Tigers were done with their postseason, “The Valenti Show with Rico” co-host Mike Valenti offered up some historic statistics which should not be ignored.

The second video is from More Perfect Union. It was published March 25, 2026. It gives focus to how Major League Baseball became changed with the use of, and reliance on, data. (And there is even more to the business model.) This was a change which catapulted the 2004 Boston Red Sox to their first World Series title since 1918.

I will post these videos below.

The Mall of Showbiz Awards Ceremonies

Sunday, March 15, 2026 is the date for the 98th Academy Awards.

Ceremony will be on ABC.

In 2029, Oscar moves to YouTube.

I was thinking about how these showbiz awards have gone through changes. 

The Oscars were invented in part to appease actors. Serve their egos. When they arrived on television in the 1950s, they were also designed to have viewers tune in—year after year—for a star-studded event which was built up to feel exciting and important.

Other big awards ceremonies followed.

In calendar order:

• Grammy Awards are for music.

• Academy Awards are for movies.

• Tony Awards are for not just theater—that is not specific enough—but for Broadway.

• Primetime and Daytime Emmy Awards are for the television.

Most of this used to be considered prestigious.

Over the last generation or so…U.S. citizens became less engaged.

The Oscars, Tonys, Emmys, and Grammys now remind me of the mall. The indoor mall. These big awards cermonies, for these different mediums, are like the anchor department stores for a huge indoor mall. The other store are less prestigious, some not particularly relevant, but existing for entertainment. Filler.

What is the trend of indoor shopping malls? What is the trend for these showbiz awards ceremonies? Well, just like with indoor malls—and what has become of them—there isn’t an interest, a use, and a need. Not for how people live. There are fewer music stores, movie theaters, and people have their personal setups at home…to accommodate what they do take in. Convenience.

I have given thought about how music, movies, and television is not all that great. But for what people do enjoy…they are glad to have something. There isn’t much—in art—that is memorable and in need for being celebrated.

Can Ds win Texas [Part I]?

Tuesday, March 3, 2026 will give us Uniter States Senate primaries in Texas.

The primary on the Republican side is whether unpopular incumbent John Cornyn, first elected in 2002, will pull through or become unseated, via this primary, by the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton. A third person is also in the hunt: congressman Wesley Hunt.

The primary on the Democratic side is between congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and state representative James Talarico. (They are pictured above as the two debated in January 2026.) 

One may think, “What does it matter—the Republican wins.”

There are people who assume Texas is Safe Republican. Not anymore. 

Since the 2000s, Texas has trended away from the GOP: It was their party’s No. 10 best state for U.S. President in 2000 and 2004; No. 15 in 2008 and 2012; No. 22 in 2016; No. 23 in 2020. It moved up for the Republicans to No. 20 in 2024. From 2000 to 2020, a period of 20 years and 6 election cycles, the state trended favorably for the Democrats to rank as their Nos. 41 to 36 to 29 to 28 best state. (No. 31 in 2024.) The average number of states carried by United States presidential winners, since 1992, has been 29. That is…30 for winning Republicans and 28 for winning Democrats. 

Can the Democrats, under the circumstances that they are prevailing party in a given election cycle, carry Texas?

Yes.

It will be difficult. 

Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.

Given the abysmal polling numbers for Republican-incumbent United States president Donald Trump, we will find out if this may materialize here in 2026.

▪️ ▪️ ▪️ ▪️ ▪️

Bombing of Iran

This blog topic was written prior to the United States and Israel having attacked Iran. (The news arrived on Saturday, February 28, 2026 at around 03:00 a.m. ET.) Comments section is available for the topic. I will mention that I, of course certainly do not agree or support this move. And I do not think or feel anything favorably, from this action, for what it means especially for this nation and its people.

Flashback 1976: The 'OCCK’ Begins

February 15, 1976—which was fifty [50] years ago from this blog topic’s publishing date—also fell on a Sunday. 

It turned out to the beginning of a serial killer running loose in Oakland County, Michigan, targeting prepubescent children, in a case which is commonly known as The Oakland County Child Killer. (This case will hereafter will be abbreviated as the OCCK.)

I wrote about and posted the topic here: Remembering the Children.

It was on this blog’s date, fifty [50] years ago, the OCCK abducted and, four days later, murdered the first known victim.

His name was Mark Stebbins. He lived in Ferndale, Michigan, a city in Oakland County, along M–1 which is known as Woodward Avenue. The Woodward Avenue Corridor. 

The embedded video, although some details are not 100-percent accurate, examines this period. It is two hours. Last month, I wrote of three Detroit-area teenaged girls murdered within the first twenty [20] days of 1976. So, this was a disturbing and dangerous period in the history of at least Greater Metro Detroit. This certainly had impact on how parents raised, and allowed freedom for, their children.

The OCCK is “unsolved.”

2026 United States Midterm Elections: Democrats May Sweep

Now that February 2026 has arrived…we are nine months from the general election for the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Due Dissidence co-host Keaton Weiss—as did co-host Russell Dobular—offered his predictions for 2026 with its year-end special.

(I was not available for the livestream.)

Weiss predicts, with the 2026 midterm elections, and thanks to how unpopular is Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump, both the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate will be won over as pickups for majority control by the Democrats.

If both houses flip…I find it necessary to anticipate the 2026 Democrats may also win over a majority number of the nation’s 50 states’s governorships.

Since the 1910s, the decade of the 17th Amendment (direct elections of U.S. senators by states’s voters), there have been 28 midterm election cycles from 1914 through 2022. 

Five of these cycles resulted in White House opposition-party switches for control for both houses of Congress.

In all such outcomes, a higher percentage of seats were established with winning over the U.S. House vs. U.S. Senate.

It also turns out that, with all five such midterm elections cycles—with party switches for both houses of Congress—the White House opposition party entered those years as the minority and then flipped for majority the nation’s states for governorships.

The above chart shows theses past midterm elections. 

“H-v.-S” is the percentage spread, in seats, between the lower-vs.-upper chamber of Congress. Gubernatorial outcomes are shown last.

I will be taking this into account for when it is time to write and publish my predictions. That is…whether I think just the U.S. House or that both houses of Congress—along with a majority number of states’s governorships—will switch from Republican to Democratic. 

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

(Next blog topic: Sunday, February 15, 2026.)

Trump Part II: One Year Later

Next Tuesday, January 20, 2026, will mark one year since Donald Trump returned to office.

I am not going to write an assessment on Trump Part II, because so much of it writes itself, and so many others [content creators] beat me to the punch, but I have reached a conclusion.

Trump—who is not MAGA but is, instead, MIGA— is not a U.S. President who intends to improve the lives of the people here in the United States.

He is, quite frankly, doing the opposite.

In terms of quality, for what he has done so far (while in office), I have written off Trump.

This may also be applicable with a sufficient number of U.S. citizens.

The [Sunday,] February 1, 2026 Progressives Chat will be an update on the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Flashback 1976: Three Teenaged Girls Murdered by Day 20

Happy New Year 2026!

(Even though this topic cannot be described as “Happy”!)

The year 2026 will mark the 250-year anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

Fifty years ago, in 1976, marked 200 years.

What was also interesting, in 1976, and at the beginning of the year, had to do with timing.

Strange timing.

Disturbing timing.

In Metro Detroit, Michigan, three teenaged girls—two aged 16; one aged 14—were murdered.

The dates of their murders were within the first twenty days of the new year.

January 1976.

This did make news—I suggest referring to archives (such as at Newspapers.com)—and this was very upsetting to residents especially in greater Metro Detroit areas and, come to think, the nation’s then-No. 7 most-populous state.

The victims:

• Judy Ferro (b. 1959; died January 1, 1976). A 16-year-old teenager from Farmington Hills, in Oakland County, Ferro was babysitting for a couple—their last name is Lauts—in Redford Township, in Wayne County. (This is the county in which Detroit, and myself, is located. My fraternal aunt, and her family, lived in this area.) On December 31, 1975, Ferro was babysitting for two young girls while their parents went out to ring in the new year. Ferro talked with her mother just after Midnight, with the new year having arrived, and at around 03:00 a.m. ET the parents returned to find Ferro missing; bullet holes in their ceiling; the phone off the hook; and their daughters not harmed. Around 07:00 a.m. ET, during a police search for Ferro, the 16-year-old babysitter was found dead in the Lola Valley Park area just a few blocks from the Lauts’s residence. Gary Pervinkler, a 19-year-old who was living across from the Lauts’s house, spied on Ferro; kidnapped her at gunpoint; beat and strangled her to death; went on the run; and was found dead—by a gunshot-to-the-head suicide—on April 7, 1976.

• Cynthia Cadieux (March 1, 1959–January 16, 1976). A 16-year-old from Roseville, in Macomb County (part of the Tri-County of Metro, Detroit), Cadieux was walking outside at night on Thursday, January 15, 1976. After visting a friend, and with intention to return home, Cadieux was approached by friends, in their vehicle, who asked if the teen would like a ride. She said no. That decision was followed by a cruel fate. Cadieux was found dead, approximately during the hour of 01:00 a.m. ET, on Friday, January 16, 1976. A vehicular driver came across Cadieux’s nude body along Franklin Road, close to the location of Franklin Cider Mill (a popular Apple Cider mill during Fall), in Bloomfield Hills in Oakland County. She was raped and bludgeoned to death. Her abductors, and killers, were not discovered for two years. In prison, and in 1978, Robert Anglin confessed his crime to an inmate. That inmate turned in Anglin. Accomplice to the crime was Raymond Heinrich. They were convicted in 1979.

• Sheila Srock (June 13, 1961–January 19, 1976). A 14-year-old from Birmingham, in Oakland County, Srock was daughter to two deceased parents, born more than forty years prior to Srock, and the teen was being raised by her adult brother, James (1942–2000). Sheila was babysitting for the infant daughter of her sister Nancy (born circa 1946) in a Birmingham home located just east of M–1 (also known as Woodward Avenue). On Monday, January 19, 1976, a burglar navigated the neighborhood, from one house to the next, and encountered one other victim (who was tied up). The burglar broke into Nancy’s house and encountered Sheila. The 14-year-old was raped and shot multiple times. A neighbor, on the roof of his house, witnessed the burglar in the house. Afterward, several neighbors—having heard the gunshots—were outside and wanting to know what was happening. So was Police. Sheila’s killer slipped outside the house, blended into the crowd, and escaped. Police thought the burglar was in his 20s. Turns out the murderer who confessed, in 1980, was Oliver Rhodes Andrews. He was not in his 20s. He was born the same year as my mother, in 1935, and was age 40 when he committed the crimes which included the murder of Srock. Andrews, a native of North Carolina who committed crimes in multiple states, and who was already serving a 101-year sentence in a Virginia prison for unrelated crimes, confessed in 1978 and was sentenced in 1979 to Life in Prison.

Numerous Sources:

• Find a Grave — Judy Ferro

• Find a Grave — Cynthia Cadieux

• Find a Grave — Sheila Srock

Additional Recommendation:

A good source is podcaster Nina Innsted. 

Innsted, who was born in Michigan in 1968, has a true-crime podcast titled Already Gone, which she started in 2017 (same year as Progressives Chat), and has looked into a number of crimes of murder. Ones which occurred in her birth state are especially of interest. This particular topic is covered, in the first episode (“The Babysitter Murders”), in her 2018-to-2019 series titled Don’t Talk to Strangers.

Much of Innsted’s childhood was living in the city Berkley, located in Oakland County, in Michigan. This is along the M–1/Woodward Avenue corridor which runs northwest to the city Pontiac, in Oakland County, and to the southeast, in Wayne County, in downtown Detroit. (In this area was the residence of my maternal grandparents.)

Innsted—who has a soft and sincere voice—has also done podcasts on the infamous “Oakland County Child Killer” serial murder case. That horrible period—the most notorious “Unsolved” serial murders in the history of the state—played out from February 1976 to March 1977. Next month will mark 50 years since the first victim was claimed. I will recognize this, here at Progressives Chat, with a topic to be published on Sunday, February 15, 2026.

Regarding Progressives Chat in 2026:

The next Progressives Chat, which will be about a political matter, will be scheduled to publish on the date Thursday, January 15, 2026. 

It is my intention to schedule topics—which will include the year’s United States midterm elections—on the 1st and 15th of each month. 

For any change along the way, such as with skipping a date (for, perhaps, a break), I will be considerate to make sure to keep such communication up to date.

The Last Topic for 2025

Now that December has arrived, I will be making this the “The Last Topic for 2025”—and for good reason—and I will explain why.

I have decided to not publish every week. The change came during the second half of 2025. I took count of total number of topics published since Progressives Chat launched in 2017. That number is now 650.

This works for me.

It is also my decision to end the year personally positively.

In July 2025, I adopted a dog. She is a Terrier Mix. She was estimated to have been born in January 2024.

I have a dog for the first time in my life in more than 25 years. I do like dogs. My brother is a dog person. My Aunt is a dog person. I went a long time because I did not have the time. I do now.

I am retired. And I am available to take care of this beautiful dog. She is 17 pounds. She is sweet. She is considerate. She is affectionate. She is remarkable.

I am very fortunate. When you get a new dog, you cannot know for fact what you are getting. I have a new dog who does not have a behavior problem. She is doing well. I am more fulfilled.

Her name is KC. 

The “K” is because I have a lot of family members, past and present, whose first name begins with the eleventh letter in the alphabet. The “C” is because my previous dog, dating back to my childhood, teen years, and early adult years, was named Candy. I also thought of the name Cookie. And then I realized I should combine the two initials to be her name. KC.

Given all the garbage that we endure these days, especially with U.S. politics, and how they affect our lives…it is very nice to have a new friend in my life.

I end this on a positive note, yes, but the first post in 2026—to be published on New Year’s Day—is a “Flashback” to a very negative part in history. So, this “Last Topic for 2025” is intentionally positive.

Merry Christmas!

And…

Happy New Year!

Trump–ed

U.S. president Donald Trump’s appeal for millions, who supported him, have become Trump–ed.

Among Trump’s recent achievements with his Part II presidency:

• Trump has no vision and no policy ideas for dealing with Inflation…other than H1–B Visas. (His attempts at helping The People include: a 50-year mortgage and a 15-year automobile loan. And he let everyone know, “I don’t want to hear about the affordability.”)

• The shutdown, which went on for a month, and which was brought by the Democrats, has people blaming the Republicans and Trump. (They are the incumbent party.)

• Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress have gone after citizens—and this does include people who voted for him—on SNAP benefits.

• Trump’s FBI director, Kash Patel, used a government jet to travel to be with his girlfriend at a wrestling match.

• Trump threatened, prior to Election Day, New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. (He has since backed off with such threats.)

• Trump is determined to primary U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie (R–Kentucky #04). (This is due, in part, to Massie not voting for enough of Trump’s agenda. It is also Miriam Adelson who wants Massie out. Recently, Trump stood in front of a flag for Israel and spoke appreciatively of Adelson, who was Trump’s biggest financial campaign supporter for Election 2024, stating that she loves Israel more than the United States. Massie is enormously popular with Republicans and in Kentucky.)

• Israel and its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is and are Trump’s No. 1 priority; not “Make America Great Again [MAGA]”.

• Trump and his association with Jeffrey Epstein (1953–2019) is even worse than previously considered—a coverup—which also has congressional Republicans in the hot seat. 

• Trump is losing support of MAGA. They are, frankly, not OK with the Trump administration, which are now labeled as “Pedophile Protectors”. They are also not good with continued funding for Ukraine and Israel. 

I will post videos, in the Comments, related to this blog topic.

(Next blog topic will be Monday, December 1, 2025.)

2026 Midterm Elections: One Year Out

One year from this blog’s topic date, [Tuesday,] November 3, 2026, will be the general election for the 2026 midterm elections in the United States. 

The 2026 midterms will consist of elections with all the nation’s 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives; Class No. 2 for the United States Senate; and 36 states for Governor.

Effective with the United States presidential election of 2024 were the following outcomes:

🇺🇸 2024 U.S. PRESIDENT 🇺🇸

🔴✔️ Donald Trump 49.71% (Pickup) | Electoral Votes: 312

🔵 Kamala Harris 48.24% | Electoral Votes: 226

⚫️ Margin: R+1.47

🇺🇸 2024 U.S. SENATE 🇺🇸

🔴✔️ Republican (Pickup) 53

🔵 Democratic 47

🇺🇸 2024 U.S. HOUSE 🇺🇸

🔴 ✔️ Republican (Hold) 220

🔵 Democratic 215

⚪️ U.S. Popular Vote: Republican 49.75% vs. Democratic 47.19%

⚫️ Margin: R+2.56

Post-Election 2024, and looking toward the midterm elections of 2026, we have the [Tuesday,] November 4, 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. They rank as the nation’s Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states. They also have a track record: They are routinely seen as harbingers for what will play out in next-year midterm elections. Since 1977, but with exception of 2013, Virginia has elected White House opposition-party governors. (Eleven of the last 12 such election cycles.) Since 1989, but with exception of 2021, New Jersey has elected White House opposition-party governors. (Eight of the last nine such election cycles.) Democrats are favored to win both; it would be a pickup in Virginia.

While observing the above Election 2024 information, keep in mind this (as we wind down 2025 and get into 2026): Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump’s job approval is in the 40s percentile range. Real Clear Politics, effective October 31, 2025, has him between 44 and 45 percent in approval. Gallup, established since 1937, and effective October 16, 2025, has Trump at 41 percent. 

What this means for the Republican-controlled U.S. House, because in midterm elections it historically flips before the U.S. Senate (if both don’t occur), is a likely 2026 Democratic pickup for control. This points to the U.S. House—while U.S. Senate is less likely—switching in January 2027 to the Democrats.

Real Clear Politics, effective October 29, 2025, reports a “Generic Congressional Vote”—which is the U.S. House—by +3.4 percentage points. What this would also indicate, compared to the outcome from 2024, is a national shift of nearly +6 percentage points in popular-vote margin for the 2026 Democrats. (Source: Real Clear Polling: ‘Generic Congressional Vote’.)

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Trump re-elected to a non-consecutive second term, the national shift (from 2020) was Republican +5.92. That yielded +6 pickup states for 2024 Trump. That was an average pickup of +1.01 states for every percentage point nationally shifted. That +1, with each percentage point nationally shifted, is common with party-switch outcomes for U.S. President.

In midterm elections, specifically with a party-switch outcome for control for the U.S. House, the average number of such net gains is typically closer to +4. So, when doing the math, the 2024-to-2026 Democrats could experience a national margin of +3.40 – (–2.56) = 5.96 nationally shifted. +5.96 x +4.00 = +23.84. So, this would suggest overall +23 or +24 net gains in U.S. House seats, added to their minority 215, wins over a new majority with 238 or 239 seats. 

270 to Win, effective November 2, 2026, lists eleven states with Republican-held U.S. House seats. Their numbers add up to a potential +18 seats. (That is…for the time being.) They are states which appear on the following map in light blue.

Mid-decade redistricting, started by Trump and fueled by mostly heavily-populous Republican-aligned states for U.S. President, are trying to manufacture net gains for their party with U.S. House seats.

The Democrats, not willing to stand by, are looking to counter with a similar strategy. 

The following map, with solid shading, shows where each party is, or would consider, targeting. (North Carolina is now a Sleeper Bellwether state. I have colored it in purple. but it is a target state by its empowered Republicans. For U.S. President, it has trended toward the middle in rank, for best-performed state, as it was the Republicans’s No. 26 and the Democrats’s No. 25 in 2024.)

I took a look at past midterm elections, dating back to the 1910s (the 17th Amendment), in which the U.S. House was a White House opposition-party switch, for the involved states. 

The U.S. has 50 states and 435 U.S. House seats. That is an average 8.7 seats per state. So, each state has an average 8 to 9 congressional districts. 

From that amount, figure 20 to 25 percent of that 8 to 9—which means +1.60 to +2.25—will be the average number of net gains from involved states which have been instrumental in flipping the U.S. House.

Citing eleven states, on the first map, and multiplying by 1.60 to 2.25 gauges an estimated overall net gain of +17.60 to +24.75 seats. This method also estimates a 2026 Democratic pickup for control of the U.S. House with a seats count in the 230s.

Take the second map and you have Republicans looking to mid-decade redistricting, perhaps, eight states. That they could manufacture between +12.80 to +18 seats. So, that would take the Democrats’s potential 232 to 239 seats down to, say, their 215 to 221 seats. So, the Democrats figure they have to counter. On that same map are eight states in which they can manufacture those +12.80 to +18 seats.

Lunacy?

Of course.

It can also be desperation from the incumbent U.S. president.

Likewise the incumbent party with both houses of Congress.

The job approval for Trump is also followed by an even lower approval for the Congress which is, of course, under control by the Republicans. Gallup reported this on October 22, 2025. (Source: ‘Congress' Job Rating Sinks to 15%; Trump's Steady at 41%’.)

At this point, I am confident the 2026 Democrats will win majority pickup for control for the United States House of Representatives. But, I do not sense it—at least not yet—with the United States Senate. Heading into the midterm elections, the Democrats have a minority 47 seats. 

Effective this blog date: I think the 2026 U.S. Senate Democrats would win pickups of no more than +2 seats. They would occur in North Carolina and Maine. 

This would still keep the Democrats in the minority with 49 states. Just in case they do flip the U.S. Senate, with the U.S. House, all states appearing in yellow, on the below map, should be considered. 

The 2026 Democrats need to win over four of the seven. 

After reaching 49 seats, I consider their probable No. 50 as Alaska and, for the Tipping-Point state and seat, No. 51 as Texas. 

We would need to move past the year 2025, and go deeply into 2026, to get a better sense whether the Democrats will have stronger potential to win a likewise pickup for control of the U.S. Senate.