‘FiveThirtyEight’ Is Now a Joke

Last week, FiveThirtyEight—under the ownership of The Walt Disney Company (ABC News; without involvement of its founder Nate Silver)—presented its Election 2024 forecasting model.

It is a joke.

FiveThirtyEight gives Joe Biden 53 percent in odds for prevailing on November 5, 2024. (The model can adjust the numbers from time to time; in fact, after Day #01, FiveThirtyEight has already done a little tweaking. This addresses Day #01 of FiveThirtyEight’s model.)

Donald Trump—who has been routinely leading in the polls in the “Swing States” since at least November 2023 (one year out from the general election)—gets 46 or 47 percent. (I did not see the exact numbers from Day #01. A related discussion elsewhere mentioned the 53 percent for Biden.)

The model has Trump stopped at an allocated 268 electoral votes. His map from 2020, a starting point of 235 electoral votes, comes with 2024 Republican pickups of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. But incumbent U.S. president Biden wins with exactly 270—the required number of electoral votes for election/re-election—with 2020-to-2024 Democratic holds of leading bellwether states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In his 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, while unseating Trump, Biden’s raw-vote margins in these states (all, except Nevada, were pickup states), were in the following range: +10,457 (Arizona) to +154,188 (Michigan).

2024 Trump is likely to flip all these states. This isn’t some Herculean task. Slice these states’s 2020 Democratic margins by a little over 50 percent and a given state will flip. Take 5,279 votes out of the 2020 Democratic column and switch them to the 2024 Republican column … that will flip Arizona. Take 77,095 votes from the 2020 Democratic column and switch them to the 2024 Republican column … that will flip Michigan. Follow suit, but with their different and necessary numbers, with the four remaining “Swing States.” (And three of these “Swing States”—Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan—are Top 10 populous states, each with a population north of 10 million residents, and which combine for 10 percent of all U.S. citizens.)

With Biden in constant struggle for 40 percent in job approval—at least according to Gallup—there is no compelling reason to believe what a Day #01 FiveThirtyEight presented will manifest.

I encourage readers to view the above video by YouTube content creator Retaking the Nation. It is a critical and insightful response to this model by FiveThirtyEight. Below is the link to FiveThirtyEight.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

Post-‘The Hill’ Firing Response

 

Briahna Joy Gray—fired last Thursday [June 6, 2024] by The Hill—was interviewed on his program by Glenn Greenwald and, it is obvious, that it was a setup. 

This interview is insightful, in part, because of why Gray was willing to work for this corporate media outlet. I wish her well.

Conviction

 

Last week, 45th U.S. president Donald Trump—also the presumptive nominee again here in 2024—was convicted on 34 counts with his trial of hush money against Stormy Daniels.

Now that we are five months out from the general election, I don’t think this will trump Trump—who leads incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden in the national and “Swing State”polls—and is positioned for re-election to a second non-consecutive term. I think it will strengthen Trump.

Inflation is the No. 1 issue. And this works against not Trump but current U.S. president Biden.

The above video is a clip, from Friday, May 31, 2024, from Hard Lens Media.

⭐️🌟⭐️🌟⭐️

 

Caitlin Johnstone has written an insightful piece about today’s celebrities refraining from speaking on the genocide in Gaza.

Why Celebrities Aren’t Speaking Up About Gaza 

‘Memorial’ Week 2024

A new blog topic will be published Monday, June 3, 2024 at 06:00 a.m. ET.

More Bad Biden Polls with Astute Analyses

Last week were poll reports which have former Republican U.S. president Donald Trump comfortably leading Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden in the much-focused “Swing States.”

Now, this isn’t new. But, content creators took to offering their responses. I appreciate them. Rather than go into details, here, I will refrain and suggest the following: Sit back. Relax. Enjoy.

‘Compton Jay Out at [“RBN”]’

 

 

Revolutionary Blackout had a livestream this past Saturday, May 11, 2024 with announcement that Compton Jay is out. 

 

There had been problems, behind the scenes, and Nick, Sabrina, Jaybe, and Rome have their discussion.  

Due to this having just happened, and that the livestream goes into some details, I opted to publish this on Sunday, May 12, 2024 to allow for an extra day of viewing.

The next blog topic will publish Monday, May 20, 2024 at 06:00 a.m. ET.

Election 2024: Six Months Out

This blog topic is six months from the scheduled general election of Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

It will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election in the history of the United States.

The above map was posted in February. Status is the same. But I will give an update on estimates.

If asked to predict, right now, the outcome, I would say Donald Trump pulls a Grover Cleveland—think 1892 having followed 1888 (both against Benjamin Harrison)—by getting revenge, from 2020, with unseating Joe Biden here in 2024. (Gallup reported April 26, 2024 Biden’s job approval is 38.7 percent. Link: Biden's 13th-Quarter Approval Average Lowest Historically.)

Three key issues: Inflation; Immigration; and Israel–Hamas Conflct.

The states in yellow, “On Watch,” were in the 2020 Democratic column for Biden. This includes the top bellwether states. (I wrote about them here: Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.) What I think, at this point, will become 2024 Republican pickups for Trump are listed below. Please keep in mind this: In 2020, when Trump was unseated by Biden, he carried 25 states, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which now combine for 235 electoral votes. He needs a net gain of only +35 electoral votes—the sum of allocated electoral votes from Pennsylvania (19) and Georgia (16)—and 235 of 270 means Trump is 87.03 percent within reach.

26. Georgia (cumulative 251 electoral votes)

27. Arizona (cumulative 262 electoral votes)

28. Wisconsin (cumulative 272 electoral votes—Potential Tipping-Point State)

29. Michigan (cumulative 287 electoral votes)

30. Pennsylvania (cumulative 306 electoral votes)

31. Nevada (cumulative 312 electoral votes)

The rest of the“ On Watch” list—in alphabetical order: Maine (state); Minnesota; New Hampshire; New Mexico; and non-state Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District—requires higher percentage-points margins nationwide to yield even more pickups to go beyond 31 carried states. 

For a prevailing Republican to carry exactly 31 states and, with it, the U.S. Popular Vote, that national margin would be either +2 or, more likely, +3. (Say, Biden 46% vs. Trump 49%.) So, to go higher would bring in more pickups. For all others in yellow to also flip, we would be looking at Republican +6. (Say, Biden 44% vs. Trump 50%. Remainder in percentages of votes—for the full 100 percent—would combine for all other candidates.) At this point, I don’t think it will end up quite so high. 

This map result—Biden 226 vs. Trump 312—is commonly estimated by some content creators with videos on YouTube. It is also in line with polling on the “Swing States”—including Trump’s 2020 Republican hold of North Carolina—as commonly reported since last November as the key states.