Merry Christmas 2024!

I wish everyone, this Wednesday, December 25, 2024, a Merry Christmas!

Bonnie Raitt: Just In ‘Time’

Singer and songwriter Bonnie Raitt turned 75 on November 8, 2024.

Raitt is one of the honorees at this year’s Kennedy Center Honors.

CBS will broadcast the recorded special next Sunday, December 22, 2024. (Check for local time.)

The 47th Kennedy Center Honors is hosted by Queen Latifah. (She was honored last year.)

For more information on this ceremony, which first started in 1978, I recommend reading the following report: Kennedy Center pays tribute to Coppola, the Grateful Dead, Raitt, Sandoval and The Apollo.

In 1989, the year Raitt turned 40, her crowning achievement Nick of Time was released in March. One year later, at the 32nd awards ceremony, Raitt was awarded the 1989 Grammy for Album of the Year.

When Raitt won that particular category—one of the Big Four in the General field (others are Record of the Year; Song of the Year; and Best New Artist)—she became only the fourth winning solo female artist. Judy Garland became the first, in 1961, for Judy at Carnegie Hall. Barbra Streisand was second, in 1963, for The Barbra Streisand Album. Third was Carole King, in 1971, for Tapestry. 

While her album was praised, and warmly embraced was this nomination, not many critics predicted this win for Raitt and Nick of Time. She won not only this much-covered prize but all four categories in which she received nominations. Raitt ended up, at the 1990 ceremony, the most awarded individual. Along with Album of the Year, “Nick of Time” (track) won her Best Female Pop Vocal Performance; Nick of Time (album) won her Best Female Rock Vocal Performance; and—while not on the LP and not presented at the live ceremony—her collaboration with John Lee Hooker on “I’m in the Mood” won them both Best Traditional Blues Recording.

1989 Grammy nominations for Album of Year were: The End of the Innocence, by Don Henley; Full Moon Fever, by Tom Petty; Nick of Time, by Bonnie Raitt; The Raw & the Cooked, by Fine Young Cannibals; Traveling Wilburys Vol. 1, by Traveling Wilburys. (Source: 32nd Annual Grammy Awards.)

This was a great win for Raitt…and it was in Time.

The album’s title track, which she wrote, is about being aware of getting older. Raitt, according to Wikipedia, began her professional career in 1971. While having a pure sound in voice, she struggled for years with addictions and failed projects. Many considered her Grammys triumph as having paid her dues. But the album, produced by Don Was, is a masterpiece. You can go over each track and observe blends of Rock, Pop, Blues, Country, and maybe a bit of R&B. “Nick of Time,” most especially, is a poignant song which includes the memorable lyrics which also speak to reality. While observing her parents and herself aging, she also realizes, “Life gets mighty precious…when there is less of it to waste.”

When Raitt was awarded with these Grammys, she was married to Oscar-nominated actor Michael O’Keefe. Her father was musical-theater actor and singer John Raitt (1917–2005). Her mother was Marjorie Haydock (1922–2004). Raitt has two brothers, David and Steve (who died in 2009). Her nephew is Bay Raitt who, according to Wikipedia, is “[an] American Artist, 3D Graphic Novelist, Animator and Video Game Developer” and is “responsible for creating the computer-generated face for [the character] Gollum in The Lord of the Rings.”

Below videos are Raitt winning her 1989 Grammys as broadcast, on CBS, February 21, 1990…and they are followed by a YouTuber’s audios of the tracks from Nick of Time.

Judi Dench and Tracey Ullman

December 2024 marks milestone birthdays for award-winning British actresses Tracey Ullman and Judi Dench.

Dench, born December 9, 1934, turns 90.

Ullman, born December 30, 1959, turns 65.

I came across some hilarious comedy segments in which Emmy winner Ullman portrays Dench in a particular light most would not associate with the magnificent Oscar and Tony winner.

Here are some videos:

My Six-Week Break Begins

I will be taking a break from posting political-related topics for six weeks.

Progressives Chat will publish on Sundays, December 1, 8, 15, 22, and 29, 2024 as well as January 5, 2025.

Regular topics as usually scheduled on Mondays will return January 13, 2025. One week later will be timed with Inauguration Day, for January 20, 2025, as Donald Trump legally becomes 47th U.S. president and, with him, JD Vance legally becomes 50th U.S. vice president.

I will have holiday threads timed for Christmas and New Year’s.

The breaks are to free me, at times, from having to write a specific topic.

Going on break, at this time, is for another reason: I am lately feeling like I need some time away from the usual. So, I will give myself that time. (While doing so, Progressives Chat will continue to publish and, by doing so, will allow for readers to comment.)

Perhaps I will take a suggestion that my Aunt, to whom I am close, would offer me: Watch some holiday movies. She would advise me to watch National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation—which, interestingly enough, was released 35 years ago on this topic’s date—starring Chevy Chase. Or I could get a hold of Young Frankenstein, released in theaters 50 years ago this month (December 1974), which is a classic comedy film directed by Mel Brooks and starring Gene Wilder. 

Whatever I will decide.

It is break time!

Happy Thanksgiving!

This week is Thanksgiving…with the holiday Thursday, November 28, 2024.

I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!

Beginning next week, blog topics will be on Sundays from December 1, 2024 to January 5, 2025. 

This will be for a period of six consecutive weeks.

I will be taking a break from politically-related blog topics.

I did have one more electorally-related topic, which I was going to use this week, to close out November; however, I became sick and was not up for writing and completing it for publication. (That happens.) I will, instead, have it ready in January 2025…just before Donald Trump and JD Vance begin the next administration on [Monday,] January 20, 2025.

Election 2024: Highlights

Progressives Chat will soon conclude covering outcomes for Election 2024.

I will wrap-up with such related blog topics next week.

In fact, next week will be the final week here in November 2024. (The timing will be good.)

This week, with “Highlights,” addresses the conspicuous shifts—nationwide and state to state—comparing Elections 2020 and 2024. What will also be addressed are some demographics as well as particular state counties critical to the overall outcome.

Much of this serves a purpose to further show how, in addition to election issues, we have this result.

‘ELECTIONS 2020–2024 SHIFTS’

In the United States presidential election of 2020, Joe Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote with 51.26%. Then-incumbent Donald Trump received 46.80%. 

This was a 2020 Democratic pickup for U.S. President with a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin of D+4.45. (From sources I have read, a series of numbers follow the decimal point. So it actually reads as +4.45xxxxx.)

Prior to last weekend a re-elected Trump, in a 2024 Republican pickup with his defeat of U.S. vice president Kamala Harris, won the U.S. Popular Vote by just under R+2.00. All votes are not yet counted. 98% are in. (This is according to Wikipedia.)

In order to win over the U.S. Popular Vote, a 2024 Trump needed a national shift of R+4.45 to draw Even and R+4.46 to win by at least R+0.01. Not only did Trump reach that necessary level, he did so in states combining for 300 electoral votes. 

That is what the above map is about—recognition of the levels of shifts, state to state, from 2020 to 2024. 

It turns out 24 of Trump’s 31 carried states, for 219 of his eventual 312 electoral votes, were won by +10 or more percentage-points in margins. All the commonly focused “Swing States”—Republican hold of North Carolina; Republican pickups of Arizona, Nevada, Tipping-Point State Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—carried within 5 percentage points vs. national margin. (This is a typical pattern for states which are Swing or Battleground or Bellwether as they not only back a winner but also reflect, to considerable extent, the national margin in a given presidential election.)

Every state had a general 2020-to-2024 shift in the direction of Republican and Trump. This marks the first time this happened—for the opposition party having regained the White House—since the 1976 Democratic pickup of the presidency for Jimmy Carter. He followed his party’s losing 1972 nominee George McGovern’s national loss by D–23.15; shifted D+25.21; and won over the U.S. Popular Vote by D+2.06. (Note: 1980 and 2000 Republican pickup winners Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush—and 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton—experienced shifts in their parties’ direction in 49 states.)

Among the states Trump did not shift sufficiently (to be able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote): Washington was +0.73 percentage points redder. Delaware shifted toward Trump by +4.27. 

Among the states shifted sufficiently for Trump to be able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote: It begins with New Hampshire. It became redder by +4.57. There are plenty more.

The most strongly shifted in the 2024 direction of Republican and Trump are two standout northeast states. New Jersey, the No. 11 most-populous state in the U.S., moved +10.29. The No. 4 most-populous state New York shifted with the most degree of red—by +11.52—as it moved from 2020-to-2024 Democratic margins of +23.09 to +11.57 percentage points.

While I have focused on percentage-points there are the raw-vote margins. 

In 2020, Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote by +7,059,526. Effective November 16, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. ET, Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2,706,826. 

In order to shift that –7,059,526, to arrive at Even, Trump nationally shifted +6,357,718 just from the nation’s Top 10 most-populous states. (They are home to nearly 54% of the nation's citizens.) That raw-vote margins shift, for what was needed by Trump, is the equivalent of 90.05%.

The following chart shows just how these raw-vote margins shifted. (Again, this is not complete. But it isn’t difficult to understand. States with an * are 2024 Republican pickups.)

‘Highlights’: Demographics

🔴 Trendline (New): Trump made inroads with young males, yes, but also young females. In 2020, he lost the 18–29 vote nationwide by –24 percentage points. In 2024, his loss was –11 points. He moved from 36% to 43%. Source: Yes, Trump improved with young men. But he drew young women, too.

🔴 Trendline (Continuing): The votes from Blacks continue their trend. A 2008 Barack Obama, in a Democratic pickup for U.S. President, nationally carried the votes from people who are Black by +91 percentage points. (Outcome: Obama 95% vs. John McCain 4%.) Since 2012, a trend has been in progress moving away from Democrats and toward Republicans. The percentage-points margins have been +87 (in 2012); +81 (in 2016); +75 (in 2020). In 2024, this moved to +73.

🔵 Trendline (Developing): For the last, roughly, 15 years…Democrats have sold a part of their appeal as “Demographics Are Destiny,” boasting of a future with electoral fortune of dominance with non-White voters. However, in the last two elections—and this is irony—Democrats have improved, and we may have a trend, with Whites. A 2016 Hillary Clinton received 37%. A 2020 Biden received 41%. A 2024 Harris received 41%. Democratic margins have trended –20 to –17 to –16 percentage points.

🔴 Hispanics in Play: The vote from Hispanics have been assumed, by Democrats, to be safely for their party. In 2020, Joe Biden nationally won them by +33 points, with 65% vs. 32% for Trump. In 2024, that margin reduced to a Democratic hold of +6 as Harris received 52% vs. 46% for Trump. In fact, Harris lost and Trump won nationally Hispanic males with 55%.

🔵 A Realignment on Economics: In the past, households with annual incomes of $100,000 or more voted Republican. Here in 2024, that switched. They were won nationally by the Democrats and nominee Harris with 51%. This occurred while Trump nationally carried voters with annual household incomes between $30,000 to $99,999. Traditionally won by Democrats, they voted for Trump with 52%.

‘Highlights’: County Flips in Key States

In all six pickup states for Trump, there was at least one county which flipped from 2020 Democratic (Biden) to 2024 Republican (Trump). Numerous are bellwether counties to a given state. Two pivotal state bellwether counties from the Keystone State are, I estimate, bellwethers to the nation. (The best bellwether-to-the-nation county is Montana’s Blaine County with its most-populous city Chinook. Except in 1988, it has voted for all presidential winners since 1916 and including 2024.) While there are a lot more counties to list, even in states which are not bellwethers, the following stand out.

🔵 PENNSYLVANIA 🔴 Erie County (its most-populous city is Erie) and Northampton County (Bethlehem). The former has carried for statewide winners in all U.S. presidential elections, except in 1988, since 1948. (This amounts to 19 of 20 election cycles including 2024.) The latter county has carried for statewide winners in all, except 1948, since 1936. (This is 22 of 23 election cycles.)

🔵 MICHIGAN 🔴 Saginaw County (Saginaw) has voted for statewide winners—no exceptions—since 1992. Dating back to 1900, and through 2024, it matched with statewide winners in 27 of 32 elections. The county has carried roughly 85% of election cycles. Also flipped: Muskegon County (Muskegon). With exception in 2016, it has carried for all statewide winners since 1972. (So, 13 of 14 election cycles.)

🔵 WISCONSIN 🔴 Door County (Sturgeon Bay), profiled in a recent segment on CBS’s 60 Minutes, narrowly held for Harris. But Trump won a pickup of Sauk County (Baraboo). This county has also carried 9 in a row, since 1992, for presidential statewide winners. Since 1952, Sauk has carried for all statewide winners except in 1976 and 1988. (Good for 17 of 19 election cycles.)

🔵 NEVADA 🔴 Washoe County (Reno). Except in 1976 and 2016 (when it sided with popular-vote winner Hillary Clinton), the state has carried for all presidential winners since 1912. Washoe County has carried for all statewide winners, except in 1992 and 1996, since 1964. (This is 14 of 16 election cycles.)

🔵 ARIZONA 🔴 As I mentioned on Due Dissidence’s Election Night coverage: Since Arizona joined the Union and first voted in 1912, every presidential statewide winner—except 1996 Bill Clinton—carried Maricopa County (Phoenix), home to 60% the state’s population. (Reliable for 28 of 29 election cycles.)

🔵 GEORGIA 🔴 Three counties, which are not state bellwether counties (but may be trending in that direction), switched from 2020 Democratic to 2024 Republican. This occurred in Baldwin County (Milledgeville), Jefferson County (Louisville), and Washington County (Sandersville). Source: These three Georgia counties flipped blue to red in 2024.

‘Highlights’: Companion-to-Divergent States

🔵 New Mexico and Nevada 🔴 voted different from each other for only the second time in history. I identify them as Companion States. New Mexico joined the Union and first voted in 1912. Their prior disagreement was in 2000, a year with split outcomes: a Democratic hold for the U.S. Popular Vote (Al Gore, who carried New Mexico) and a Republican pickup for the Electoral College and U.S. President (George W. Bush, who flipped and carried Nevada). This split reminds me of another pair of Companion States. From 1944 to 2016, Iowa and Wisconsin voted the same in all presidential elections except in 1976 and 2004. Then in 2020, they disagreed. What explains this? Between Iowa and Wisconsin, the former realigned Republican (with 2016 pickup winner Trump) but the latter transformed into a leading bellwether state. Between New Mexico and Nevada, the former realigned Democratic (with 2008 pickup winner Barack Obama) but the latter maintained bellwether status. So, as it turns out nowadays, Iowa and Wisconsin will vote the same when a Republican wins. New Mexico and Nevada will vote the same when a Democrat wins.

A Post-Election 2024 Reaction of Satisfaction

In time for my deadline (so to speak) of Monday, November 11, 2024, there are still some election races not called. The electoral map, for Election 2024, is now complete. I predicted correctly.

Donald Trump was re-elected to a second non-consecutive term. This is the second time in history this has occurred after Grover Cleveland won his elections in 1884 and 1892. As he did in 2016, Trump`s second-term win is a Republican pickup. 

Effective Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 04:30 p.m. ET, and according to Wikipedia, Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote with 50.42% vs. Kamala Harris with 47.82%. A percentage-points margin of R+2.60. This bares in mind not all states are 100 percent in. Trump’s final percentage-points margin is likely +2 to +3.

All states are projected. Trump carried 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, with an electoral-vote score of 312. (The pickups appear, on the map, in Light Shade.)

Given the fact no prior election’s electoral map has ever been later duplicated, the difference between the maps for Trump’s two terms are with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (2016) and Nevada (2024).

The likely Tipping-Point State is Pennsylvania. This is based on ranking all states for their percentage-points margins (whether or not carried). The Keystone State is apparently where Trump reached 270 electoral votes. It is his No. 29 best state. In fact, since 2012 Pennsylvania has ranked the Republicans’s No. 29 best state. (For Democrats, it has been their No. 22.) Republicans nowadays hit their Tipping-Point State at No. 28 or No. 29. (For Democrats, their No. 22 or No. 23.) Pennsylvania, allocated with 19 electoral votes, is Trump’s 287th electoral vote. Coming in at No. 30 is Michigan, for a cumulative 302 electoral votes. Ranking No. 31 is Wisconsin, for the final electoral-vote score of 312.

Once again, the Rust Belt Trio—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—carried for the winner. They retain their status as the nation’s Top Bellwether States. This is the fifth consecutive cycle—2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024—in which all three carried for a United States presidential election winner.

I enjoyed having participated on the Election Night coverage on Due Dissidence. I viewed it again. The purpose is to take in how well I handled myself. Perhaps I did OK. Without experience, I cannot have the polish that is there with co-hosts Keaton Weiss and Russell Dobular. But there is much to say about having experience. I contributed…and that is why I was there. And I thank this site’s regulars for having suggested I say “yes” to their invitation.

 

This week’s topic will not cover too many details of Election 2024 outcomes, as there is so much to consider, because I choose this week to focus on the overall outcome.

It is time for me to give my reaction.

I am satisfied.

I am very pleased—make that delighted—the 2024 Democrats became electorally defeated and unseated.

This overall outcome was absolutely necessary. 

(I applaud the voters in my birth city, Dearborn, for denying Harris/Democrats their votes with an effort to help make sure Team Blue would not be able to win a 2020-to-2024 hold for the state of Michigan. Due to the genocide in Gaza, voters held accountable the Joe Biden–Kamala Harris administration.)

The Democrats have become an arrogant and destructive cult. 

The last election cycle in which I voted for any person affiliated with the Democratic Party was in 2014. Election Day was Tuesday, November 4, 2014. In this current year, Election Day was held Tuesday, November 5, 2024. When that date arrived, a full ten years had passed since I last voted for a Democrat.

This is good.

I made the correct decision.

I am relieved that I have enough inner strength to have made this happen—and stick.

The Democratic Party lost me in 2016. I have at least four reasons why: 1. Rigged Primaries; 2. McCarthyism [RussiaGate]; 3. Anti-Choice [The Jab]; 4. Censorship.

It certainly does not stop there. But, really, the first listed item was already enough for me. And I take my voting personally. (How could I not?)

After viewing numerous post-election videos—such as livestreams—the one which really spoke to where I am coming from (but not being expressed by me in words appearing on this site) was on Racket News. This is from Matt Taibbi. The more astute take on all this is by co-host Walter Kirn. In the first few minutes, Kirn says of the Democratic Party [and party establishment], “But, Matt…I don’t care about their Cope. I don’t care about the Coming Lens to replace the Fascist Lens or to augment the Hitler Lens—to supplant the loss of Status Lens. Because I don’t care about anything they say. That’s the final triumph.…”

Election 2024: Here at Last!

Election Day—and, afterward, Election Night—has arrived.

Election 2024 is the 60th quadrennial presidential election in the history of the United States.

This blog topic publishes on Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 12:00 a.m. ET for good reason: The Dixville Notch votes in New Hampshire occur just after midnight (Eastern Time). And they are considered the traditional beginning of Election Day.

According to Wikipedia’s page, ‘Dixville Notch: Midnight tradition voting’: “Dixville Notch is best known in connection with its longstanding midnight vote in the U.S. presidential election, including during the New Hampshire primary, the first primary election in the U.S. presidential nomination process. In a tradition that started in the 1960 election, all the eligible voters in Dixville Notch gather at midnight in the ballroom of The Balsams. The voters cast their ballots and the polls are officially closed when all of the registered voters have voted—sometimes merely one minute later. The results of the Dixville Notch vote in both the New Hampshire primary and the general election are traditionally broadcast around the country immediately afterwards.”

The above map, for the 2024 election for U.S. President, is initially presented with white coloring prior to the polls closing in a select number of states at 07:00 p.m. ET. I will be updating the map, some in the Comments section, and periodically and gradually with the top map until all the results are in.

I will be contributing to Due Dissidence during its Election Night coverage. I will not be appearing on camera. So, while I may be slow to do any updating here, during the evening, I will not neglect this site.

I encourage readers of Progressives Chat to post anything of mind—whether or not specific to these elections—as this week’s blog topic will be good through next Monday at 05:59 a.m. ET.

The next blog topic will publish, as normally scheduled, Monday, November 11, 2024 at 06:00 a.m. ET.

Gender Vote

The gender gap, as often referred, is Democrats carrying Females before they may also carry Males; Republicans carrying Males before they would also carry Females. The last elections in which both genders carried for a prevailing Republican and Democrat were in 1988 (George Bush) and 2008 (Barack Obama). I will be looking at the Gender Vote nationwide, for the U.S. Popular Vote, and state to state. (Not all states exit-poll.) Here were the results from Election 2020:

• Female (53): Joe Biden 56% • Donald Trump 41%

• Male (47): Joe Biden 45% • Donald Trump 53%

• Margins: D+15 (Female) • R+8 (Male)

• Math: D+15 – R+8 = D+7; divide by 2 = D+3.50; Adjusted (Actual Outcome): D+4.45

  

‘Swing States’: Bellwether Counties Watch

I consider the following “Swing States’s” counties which will indicate who will carry a given state. They have been reliably backing statewide presidential winners. 

🟣 Pennsylvania: Erie and Northampton

🟣 Michigan: Saginaw

🟣 Wisconsin: Door

🟣 Arizona: Maricopa

🟣 Georgia: None Applicable

🟣 North Carolina: New Hanover

🟣 Nevada: Washoe 

Election 2024 Prediction: Trump … Vance … Republican Trifecta

Next week is the 2024 United States presidential election … along with other races and ballot issues. 

“Election Day 2024” will publish Tuesday, November 5, 2024, at 12:00 a.m. ET.

This prediction is final.

In the meantime… 

🇺🇸

I predict Donald Trump, from Florida, will win re-election to a second, non-consecutive term to become the next and 47th president of the United States.

I predict JD Vance, from Ohio, will win election to become the next and 50th vice president of the United States.

I predict the overall outcome for Election 2024 will be the Trifecta for the Republican Party: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House.

While the 2024 Republicans will win a pickup for U.S. President, I predict they will also win a pickup for the U.S. Senate while retaining a majority hold for control for the U.S. House.

Coming into Election 2024, the Democrats have established 51 percent for both U.S. President (in 2020, Joe Biden’s U.S. Popular Vote was 51.26%) and U.S. Senate (in 2022, the Democrats ended up with 51 of its 100 seats). The Republicans also established 51 percent for U.S. House (in 2022, they ended up with 222 of its 435 seats).

It is highly likely, with the overall results of Election 2024, one of these two major political parties will end up with the Trifecta. It looks better for the Republicans. 

I will present maps on U.S. President and U.S. Senate. But, due to more complexity and a difficult visual illustation, I will not follow suit for U.S. House.

🇺🇸

Please note these colors on maps: Solid shade is for party hold. Light shade is for party pickup.

U.S. President

• Winner: Donald Trump

• Winning Ticket: Donald Trump (R–Florida) and JD Vance (R–Ohio)

• Prevailing Party: Republican—pickup

• U.S. Popular Vote [Estimate]: Donald Trump 50% • Kamala Harris 47%

• Percentage-Points Margin [Estimate]: R+3

• Electoral College: 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes

• 2020-to-2024 Electoral College Change: Republican pickups of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

🇺🇸

U.S. Senate

• Prevailing Party: Republican—pickup

• U.S. Senate [Outcomes with Minimums]: Democratic 43 • Republican 52; five are not predicted … but they all are states/seats currently in the column for the Democrats

• 2022-to-2024 U.S. Senate Change: Republican pickups of West Virginia [Jim Justice, in an Open race]: Montana [Tim Sheehy, unseating Jon Tester]; and Ohio [Bernie Moreno, unseating Sherrod Brown]

• Watch (in Yellow): Arizona [Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego, in an Open race]; Michigan [Mike Rogers vs. Elissa Slotkin, in an Open race]; Nevada [Sam Brown vs. incumbent Jacky Rosen]; Pennsylvania [David McCormick vs. incumbent Bob Casey]; and Wisconsin [Eric Hovde vs. incumbent Tammy Baldwin]

🇺🇸

U.S. House

• Prevailing Party: Republican—hold

• U.S. Popular Vote [Estimate]: Democratic 47% • Republican 50%

• Percentage-Points Margin [Estimate]: R+3

• U.S. House [Estimate]: Democratic 211–215 • Republican 220–224

• 2022-to-2024 U.S. House Change: Republican –2 to +2

The U.S. House Popular Vote

The trajectory of this 2024 United States presidential election has turned in favor for Donald Trump.

Polls show he is leading in nearly or all the commonly focused “Swing States.”

I will make my predictions next week, for Monday, October 28, 2024.

(The following week, for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, will focus on Election Day.)

Why am I not going ahead with Election 2024 predictions this week?

There is good reason.

Since the year 2000, specifically in United States presidential elections, the party which won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House also prevailed for U.S. President.

This includes the last two Republican pickup years of 2000 and 2016—for George W. Bush and Trump—who did not carry the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President. (Bush succeeded with re-election in 2004.)

Given this, I am following Real Clear Politics’s tracking of the “Generic Congressional Vote.” 

I anticipate—and expect—this pattern will hold.

The above chart are results from Elections 2000–2020. 

The percentage-points margins—U.S. President vs. U.S. House—have been closely connected. Average, over six election cycles, was only 1.94 percentage points in margin.

The below images are from Real Clear Politics effective Sunday, October 20, 2024. 

The U.S. House is on the schedule every two years. Even-numbered years. With that, they cannot skip an election cycle. The full 100 recent of its seats are scheduled.

Here were the results, in 2022, when Republicans won pickup control for the U.S. House:

If Election 2024 ends up a Democratic hold, to elect Kamala Harris, these numbers may closely reflect national outcomes for U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President vs. U.S. House. (I sense Democratic percentage-points margins, for U.S. President and U.S. House, to be +5 and +2 or +3.)

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President, to re-elect Trump to a second non-consecutive term, I would anticipate—not unlike the Democrats—the 2024 Republicans to carry the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House. (I sense Republican percentage-points margins, for U.S. President and U.S. House, to be –1 to +3 and +0 to +4.)

The Democrats are narrowly ahead with this aggregate of polls. Typically the margin of error, for polls, are between 3 to 5 points. This suggests, if this holds, they would flip the U.S. House. This is due to the 2022 Democrats having lost control of the U.S. House, with a minority 213 seats, and a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin of –2.72. This would likely come with Democratic holds for U.S. President and U.S. Senate. 

If it turns out Trump wins this election, these national “Generic Congressional Vote” numbers may see the Republicans—who flipped the U.S. House with the midterm elections of 2022—draw Even or move ahead. This would put the 2024 Republicans on a path for holding the U.S. House while flipping U.S. President and U.S. Senate.

It is no wonder, as last week’s blog title stated, Election 2024 is such a Tossup.

‘Tossup,’ Once More

Last week saw coverage of recent polls reporting Democatic presidential nominee and U.S. vice president Kamala Harris is losing ground…and that she may lose the 2024 U.S. presidential election to Republican nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump.

This is three weeks from the general election scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. There are several matters to consider. I am, at this point, rating Election 2024: U.S. President an absolute Tossup. 

Commonly focused “Swing States”—appearing on the above map in Yellow—will be most instrumental with determining overall outcome for this election. (They may all get carried.)

I will post in Comments some recent videos which are related to this week’s topic.

Top 10 States: Alignment for U.S. President

This week’s blog topic relates not only to Election 2024, for U.S. President, but also applies going forward. It speaks to historic pattern. Considerable influence as well. That this is likely to continue. 

The above map, with colors, are the U.S.’s Top 10 most-populous states. 

This is relevant because The Top 10 bares much influence electorally. They add up to 254 of the 270 electoral votes required for election the presidency of the United States.

The Top 10 also comprise between 53 to 54 percent as the home states for all U.S. citizens. 

Source: US States — Ranked by Population 2024 …

Historically, no past U.S. presidential election was won with less than 4 of the Top 10 populous states. The last time that a winner carried only 4 was George W. Bush in the 2000s. In his column were his home state Texas along with North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. The 6 remaining Top 10 states—California. New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and, then-ranked among the Top 10, New Jersey—were in the columns for losing Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry.

(Separate note: During the 1990s and 2000s, New Jersey still ranked among the Top 10 most-populous states. Georgia and North Carolina went back and forth of being in and out of the Top 10. Since the 2010s, New Jersey fell to rank No. 11 and both Georgia and North Carolina—which dethroned a formerly No. 8 Michigan—are now comfortable Top 10 states.)

Since 1992, no one has carried more than 32 states. No winner has carried more than 8 of the Top 10 states. 1996 Bill Clinton and 2012 Barack Obama reached. 1992 Clinton, 2012 Obama, and 2016 Trump carried 7. A 2020 Biden carried 6.

Most presidential winners have carried 6 or more Top 10 states.

The above map’s color-coding recognizes where each Top 10 state is currently aligned. 

This regards where they rank among best-performed states in percentage-points margins by which a state carries (or does not).

States appearing in purple are leading (Michigan and Pennsylvania) and rising (Georgia)—as well as sleeper (North Carolina)—bellwethers.

The following are each Top 10 populous state’s “Probable Order in Rank” for the Democratic and Republican parties:

On the top map, I have Texas appearing in light red. It is for the following reason: The next year on record the Democrats have a U.S. presidential election in which they carry not only 6 or 7 but up to 8 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states … what will come in as their No. 8 is Texas. 

(Another separate note: The Democrats, given the current electoral structure, would not reach their No. 9 Florida and No. 10 Ohio. They transformed, in 2016, from former leading bellwether states to realign Republican. This trajectory is at a point in which Texas is about to become bluer than Florida and Florida is about to become redder than Texas.)

Texas is in light red, to suggest Lean Republican, due to its trendline toward the Democrats. During the presidency of George W. Bush, won in 2000 and 2004, it was the Democrats’s No. 41 best state. With the Republicans’s 2008 and 2012 losses, Texas was the Democrats’s No. 36 best state. Although Trump was a 2016 Republican pickup winner, Texas became the Democrats’s No. 29 best state. And in 2020, with Biden having unseated Trump, Texas ranked the Democrats’s No. 28 best state. (Florida was No. 27.) Since 1992, prevailing Democrats have averaged 28 carried states. They can reach and carry Texas if they win the presidency with 8 of the Top 10.

If you want to look at this as well from the Republicans’s position … reverse their “Probable Order” and, lately, they’re good for up to 7 of the Top 10. That is what 2016 Trump experienced. The same 7 states, if he wins a second non-consecutive term here in 2024, will end up in his column.

Election 2024: U.S. Senate [Preview]

Last week addressed the current status, “The Race,” on the 2024 United States presidential election.

This week is the U.S. Senate. 

All states in yellow are susceptible to seeing their Democratic-held seats potentially flip Republican. 

Three of these states have an alignment for the Republicans for U.S. President: Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. And the third-mentioned state is guaranteed to flip. (This is why it is in light red.)

Five of the seven “Tossup” states, a common focus on the “Swing States,” are on the schedule: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Exceptions: Georgia and North Carolina.)

I want to offer the following for consideration:

Established Patterns

🟣 Since 1976, every U.S. presidential election in which Wisconsin had a scheduled U.S. Senate election resulted in same-party carriage. Winning Democrats: 1976 (Jimmy Carter and William Proxmire); 1988 (Michael Dukakis and Herb Kohl); 1992 (Bill Clinton and Russ Feingold); 2000 (Al Gore and Kohl); 2004 (John Kerry and Feingold); and 2012 (Barack Obama and Tammy Baldwin who is the incumbent whose seat is on the schedule here in 2024). Winning Republicans: 1980 (Ronald Reagan and Bob Kasten); and 2016 (Donald Trump and Ron Johnson).

🟣 Since the Republican Party won their first U.S. presidential election with Abraham Lincoln in 1860, Pennsylvania has not had both its U.S. Senate seats in the column for the Democratic Party for longer than four years. In the midterm elections of 2022, John Fetterman was a Democratic pickup winner. If Bob Casey wins re-election, with this seat next on the schedule in 2030, the Democrats will break this pattern.

Recent Elections

🟣 In 2016, every state which was on the schedule for U.S. Senate carried for the same party which won that given state for U.S. President. This was the first time this ever occurred in the history of U.S. presidential elections. 

🟣 In 2020, this pattern repeated. Well, it did in all states except Maine. A state with a split allocation of its electoral votes, Democrats Joe Biden and Sara Gideon won the 1st Congressional District while Republicans Donald Trump and Susan Collins won the 2nd Congressional District. Statewide winners: Biden and Collins.

Current Election

States which are “Tossup” but are accompanied with a checkmark may be key. 

We may see same-party outcomes—U.S. President and U.S. Senate—in potentially all of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin … as voting citizens may opt to align their votes for the same given party.

Those five states are all currently in the column for the Democrats. Two such states—Arizona [Kyrsten Sinema] and Michigan [Debbie Stabenow]—who are retiring. 

The following is a list with the probable order for each major party. The Republicans enter this race with 49 seats and have a good-as-guaranteed pickup for a 50th seat with flipping West Virginia. (This is for current governor Jim Justice over Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott.) In percentage-points margins, Republicans’s 51st seat would likely be Montana. If Democrats hold the U.S. Senate, their 50th seat would also likely be Montana. I think the Big Sky State will be the Tipping-Point State/Seat for overall outcome in elections with the 2024 U.S. Senate.

Election 2024: The Race [U.S. President]

We are six weeks from Election Day, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and I am not fully confident to predict who—Democratic incumbent U.S. vice president Kamala Harris or previous Republican-affiliated U.S. president Donald Trump—will win this election. (Side note: Effective with this publishing date, I am sensing it is Harris, rather than Trump, who has a slight advantage.)

The polls favored Harris, after U.S president Joe Biden dropped out, for much of August. During the early weeks of September, it has been looking better for Trump. It’s a back-and-forth thing. (More polls lean favorably to Harris.)

The map is a return to the focused “Swing States” which were polled from, say, November 2023 through at least the first half of 2024. They are each a “Tossup” and in Yellow. “Tossup” is centered because their combined 94 electoral votes make the mathematical difference with reaching 270. Solid Blue [incumbent party] and Red [opposition party] would be 2020-to-2024 party holds.

On the “Tossup” list: Nevada was a 2016-to-2020 Democratic hold … Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia were 2016 Republican-to-2020 Democratic pickups … North Carolina was a 2016-to-2020 Republican hold. They all have the potential to end up in the column for the winner. (Frankly, nearly all or all are likely to do just that.)

If Kamala Harris wins this election, her electoral-map potential are 26 carried states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia, for up to 319 electoral votes.

If Donald Trump wins this election, his electoral-map potential are 31 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, for up to 313 electoral votes.

I will note a historic fact: There has been no past United States presidential election’s electoral map which was later duplicated. 

An easy companion is with looking at winners from the same party.

In 2000 and 2016, then-Republican presidential pickup winners George W. Bush and Trump each carried 30 states. Their maps were different. Carried by Bush: Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Carried by Trump: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. 

Here in 2024, if it turns out Democratic nominee Harris wins and carries 26 states, she will match that number with 2012 re-elected Democrat Barack Obama. Their maps would also be different. Carried by Obama: Florida, Iowa, and Ohio plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Carried by Harris: Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

At least one of those in Yellow, with respect to Elections 2020 to 2024, will change color.

Note to Readers: 

This is my last electoral-map preview for Election 2024 [U.S. President]. Numerous states begin early and absentee voting in October. (This includes my home state Michigan.) The next electoral map for U.S. President will be my predictions. That will publish Monday, October 28, 2024. The following week will be the elections. That will publish on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5, 2024, at 12:00 a.m. ET.

Wednesday, September 25, 2024 will mark the seventh anniversary for Progressives Chat.

Thank you, to Everyone, and most especially to cathyx (who helped me with its launch), for the continuation of this blog site.

I want to keep going.

‘Manichaean’

 

Garland Nixon—a superb commentator on politics—published to YouTube on August 19, 2024 this interesting and insightful take on the current Democratic Party and their Loyal Voters.

It is titled ”Why Democrats Believe That All Votes Go to Trump.”

He has some observations which may not necessarily have occurred to people prior to watching this video.

This is highly recommended viewing. Its running time is 35 minutes. I am curious if Progressives Chat readers may want to respond.

Now Recommended Among Videos: Racket News

A new addition to Videos is Racket News. 

It is from Matt Taibbi. His co-host is Walter Kirn.

Among the videos on the channel is its coverage of last week’s presidential debate.

I am certain I will, going forward, post videos by Racket News in the Comments.

Note to Readers:

Next Monday, September 23, 2024, will be the start of numerous election topics. This will be timed six weeks from the general election, Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and I graciously apologize in advance for any sense of overkill.

September 2024: Break Week #02

 

This is the second of a two-week break. 

Above video, like last week, is also music—by Neil Diamond—which is appropriate for this month. 

Regular blog topics will return next Monday, September 16, 2024, at 06:00 a.m. ET.

September 2024: Break Week #01

I will be taking a two-week break from blog topics.

Next week’s blog topic, also a “Break Week,” will publish Sunday, September 8, 2024.

A new topic will get published Monday, September 16, 2024 at 06:00 a.m. ET.

In the meantime: Given the month is new, I have an appropriate song from the sensational music group Earth, Wind & Fire—who were so prominent particularly during the second half of the 1970s—and anyone in the mood to add some music in Comments is welcomed to do so.

I also wish everyone a pleasant Labor Day holiday.

⭐️🌟⭐️🌟⭐️

Reminder (of a post, by me, in the Comments from Friday, August 30, 2024):

🟢 PROGRAMMING NOTE 🟢  

The Jimmy Dore Show will have episodes … on Tuesday [September 3, 2024] and Wednesday [September 4, 2024]. …  Friday [September 6, 2024 may] be an off day due to travel for a performance.

RFK Jr. for Trump!

 

If Election 2024 hasn‘t been twisty enough for you…the newest move on this rollercoaster ride came last Friday, August 23, 2024. 

While Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his presidential campaign, he joined in a rally in xxx to speak to why he now endorses for U.S. President Donald Trump. 

RFK Jr. prefers the next four years to be not with the Democarts and Kamala Harris but with the Republicans and for the 45th U.S. president to be the 47th.

Jimmy Dore’s take on this is in sync with mine.

I think it is worthy of thought and consideration.

Tuesday [August 27, 2024] marks ten [10] weeks until Election Day.

Un-Democratic Convention

 

The 1968 Democratic National Committee’s convention was held in Chicago, Illinois … as it is also the location here in 2024.

Lyndon Johnson, in 1968, and Joe Biden, in 2024, were—and are—unpopular even in their own party.

In 1968, the nomination went to sitting vice president Hubert Humphrey. In 2024, the nomination will be going to sitting vice president Kamala Harris.

Above is video harkening back 56 years. (The calendar, in leap years, repeats every 28 years. In 1968, August 19 was also on a Monday. Back then, though, the DNC Convention began August 26, 1968.)

In 1968, party insiders—regardless of the primaries—gave the nomination to Humphrey. In 2024, party insiders—regardless of the primaries—will be giving the nomination to Harris.

The 2024 convention, compared to 1968, appears to be much more controlled. (Technology.) 

Below video gives one this sense.

Birthday Week

This Friday, August 16, 2024, will mark my 53rd birthday.

What I am going to do is present this topic—this “Birthday Week”—with a music video.

The year 1984 was when I started buying music. (I was a late bloomer.) I enjoyed immensely so many of the year’s hits that I didn’t just buy … I collected. 

Given this is my birthday, I fondly recall being gifted with two related to music: First, I received tickets to see The Jacksons Victory Tour. Second, I was able to see, on my birthday [Thursday, August 16, 1984], the new motion-picture release, Purple Rain, starring Prince and Apollonia Kotero. 

Purple Rain won Prince (1958–2016) the 1984 Oscar for Best Original Song Score.

I don’t tend to revisit the film, often, but I do that with the music. The above video is the electric—and fun—“Let’s Go Crazy.”

‘Rethinking Election 2024…’

 

We are, as of this topic’s publishing date, three months out from the general election which is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

Last month, Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden was still in the race. He had enough pledged delegates for re-nomination. Biden looked poised to go down in flames. That Biden, with Gallup reporting June 3–24, 2024 his job approval is at 38 percent, was cooked.

 

In “Election 2024: A New Trajectory” (July 8, 2024), I wrote about a series of state polls which suggested Donald Trump was on pace for re-election to a level possibly reaching 40 carried states. A number of those states, like Minnesota and New Jersey, have not carried for a Republican in decades. A lot played out in July. There was the attempted assassination on Trump. Later in the month, Biden agreed, after pressure, to drop his bid for a second term. And now we have another twist.

The twist is that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has become more popular. Democrats, who were not energized about Biden, are now excited for Harris. Her approvals are on the rise. She is on par with Trump for the polls, national and in the “Swing States,” and may end up winning election to become the 47th president of the United States.

Is this believable?

I look at this in more ways than one. 

I also consider the following for some insights…

Joe Rogan and guest Michael Malice consider whether Kamala Harris will win.

 

Due Dissidence, with guest Kit Cabello (Hard Lens Media), has its discussion. Popping in, briefly, cohost Keaton Weiss delivered a warning for anyone who thinks Trump will glide to re-election.

   

The Grayzone’s Max Blumenthal and Aaron Maté also addressed this … and an even bigger concern.

  

Rethinking Election 2024: No to Biden and Trump

In response to a discussion between Due Dissidence cohost Russell Dobular and guest Misty Winston, I wrote and posted the following SuperChat: 

“Rethinking Election 2024: On January 20, 2025 … Kamala Harris becomes the [47th] U.S. president. That The People are over not only Biden but also Trump.”

Russell concurred with, “You may be right.”

As a forum member of “Talk Elections,” on Dave Leip’s Atlas for U.S. Presidential Elections, I wrote the following:

My sense of this is that the 2024 Democrats may have saved their a**es by blinking first. Meaning … getting out Joe Biden. 

What can be going on is that there are people who are done not only with Joe Biden but also with Donald Trump. 

I am thinking especially of people who do not give their time to regularly following politics. That they are not watching such content on television, seeking and reading about this on the Internet, and engaging online with politics in discussion forums. 

These individuals, who do participate in voting (presidential elections before any other cycles), may look forward to Election Season … like some people look forward to preparing and filing their income taxes. 

What this election can mean for these people is that they had dreaded the initial 2024 rematch of Biden-vs.-Trump. To say to oneself, “These same two people are the best that we can do?!” 

Having a different person as the 2024 general-election nominee for the Democratic Party may be enough for these individuals. It means … a turn-the-page opportunity which can be satisfying for a good number of these citizens and voters.

Flashback 1984: Massacre at a McDonald’s

 

A full 40 years has passed since the [Wednesday,] July 18, 1984 massacre at a McDonald’s in San Ysidro, California.

This is in San Diego County and near the U.S.–Mexico border.

The shooter was James Huberty, 41, who murdered 21 people and wounded 19 more before he was fatally shot by SWAT officer/sniper Chuck Foster.

(More from Wikipedia: San Ysidro McDonald’s massacre.)

There have been, in U.S. history, such murders in well-known restaurant establishments. 

Last November, I wrote and posted Flashback 1978: The Burger Chef…Murders. 

In 1983 were the murders of five in another fast-food restaurant, KFC, in Kilgore, Texas. (Link: Kentucky Fried Chicken murders.) 

In 1991 were the murders of 23 at a Luby’s in Killeen, Texas. (Link: Luby’s shooting.)

In 1993 were the murders of two co-owners/spouses and five of their employees at a Brown’s Chicken in Palatine, Illinois. (Link: Brown’s Chicken massacre.) 

According to a 2023 report by Business Insider, the 1984 San Ysidro McDonald’s Massacre is the eighth worse, for mass shooting fatalities, so far in United States history. (Link: The 30 deadliest mass shootings in modern US history….)

Given the many public venues for such multiple or mass murders … this does not feel surprising here in 2024. According to that Business Insider report, there have been four even deadlier mass shootings since the 2010s.

The 2016 documentary on the mass murders in that San Ysidro McDonald’s—which was demolished and replaced by a memorial outside Southwestern College—is titled 77 Minutes. 

The film is by Charles Minn. 77 Minutes is serious and respectful, especially to the victims and their survivors, and it gives insight to the destruction caused by the murderer.

The above video is that documentary on YouTube. It is sensitive content. It is also available on Amazon’s freevee as well as Tubi. Below link, but not with embedded video, is of crime scene footage (which is also in the documentary at around the 40-minute mark). 

YouTube video clip by Leak Launch: 

1984 San Ysidro McDonald’s Massacre Crime Scene Footage

⭐️🌟⭐️🌟⭐️

Hard Lens Media Reaches 15M … ‘Featured In … Zago’

Hard Lens Media recently reached 15 million views to its channel. 

Along with several independent content creators, host Kit Cabello is featured in art work by Lucio Zago (website: https://www.luciozago.com/).

As we close out July to enter August 2024 … and, even with the main topic rather sad, this is encouraging.

It is a nice. 

Much-loved.

Well-earned.

Biden Is Out!

The speculation, for months, that incumbent United States president Joe Biden will not end up with the 2024 Democratic Party presidential nomination … is official.

This decision was announced on Sunday [July 21, 2024].

This whole situation is—to put it kindly—tasteless.

I consider this an extension of a Democratic Party rigging their presidential primaries to exert as much control as they can muster. (None of what has recently transpired lacked awareness for a few years.)

The 2016 Democratic presidential nomination was rigged for Hillary Clinton.

The 2020 Democratic presidential nomination was rigged for Joe Biden.

The 2024 Democratic presidential nomination will be rigged for … Substitute Nominee.

Below videos are responses by content creators (Congratulations, Due Dissidence’s Keaton Weiss!):

Attempted Assassination of Trump

The attempted assassination of 45th U.S. president Donald Trump, at a rally on Saturday, July 13, 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania, was covered that evening on Hard Lens Media. 

Host Kit Cabello welcomed his guest, Due Dissidence’s Keaton Weiss (who will soon take leave as his wife is expecting to give birth later this month), to discuss this attack.

The shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, was killed by the Secret Service Counter Assault Team.

One civilian, Corey Comperatore, 50, was killed in the attack.

Three others, including Trump, were injured.

This Hard Lens Media special coverage offers a perspective much in agreement with mine. 

Kit and Keaton even spoke to what this means … electorally. (Their livestream video is linked above.)

I am making this brief because this is new and, for the time being, ongoing; and, of course, I think the Comments section would be even more suitable for posts and/or discussions.

⭐️🌟⭐️🌟⭐️

‘Sabby,’ New York, and Me

 

Last week’s [July 8, 2024] Progressives Chat addressed a change in trajectory for U.S. President here in 2024. That, due to poor job-approval numbers for Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden (who constantly struggles for 40 percent), there are emerging states suggesting this election may result in 40 or more carried states for Donald Trump. 

I mentioned this change in trajectory to the host of Sabby Sabs. She had a post-livestream Zoom session, which I joined, last Tuesday [July 9, 2024]. I alerted host Sabrina Salvati to what I addressed here last week: an expanding electoral map. 

I presented the list of states—following the six much-focused “Swing States” (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan)—which were recently polled and are in play. 

In 2020, Trump was unseated with 25 states. Following these six “Swing States,” and based on their probable order ranking after No. 31 Michigan, the potential additional pickups are: No. 32 Minnesota; No. 33 New Hampshire; No. 34 Maine (state); No. 35 New Mexico; No. 36 Virginia; and No. 39 New Jersey. (This is with respect to ranking the states, for Trump/Republicans, according to percentage-points margins by which they may or may not carry.) 

I took this potential list all the way to a probable No. 44 California. For New York, the latest to hit the news (see below link), I estimate it would rank the No. 42 best state for 2024 Trump/Republicans. 

After completing the list, I asked for Sabrina’s reaction. She cited New York as one with which she disagreed. She was thinking of the deep blue that is New York City. She invited likewise feedback by regular viewer and contributor Roger Meadows. He is a resident of the state. They went over its voter party registration to conclude it may not be feasible.

Following new polling on New York (from last Wednesday, July 10, 2024) showing the Empire State is now in play … Sabrina presented that report on her livestream, on Thursday [July 11, 2024], and expressed an apology (not at all necessary) and much-respect directly to me. (This segment, above video, was clipped and published to YouTube on Saturday, July 13, 2024.)

Related link (source was cited on Sabby Sabs):

Biden support slips in deep blue New York: ‘We’re a battleground state now’

Election 2024: A New Trajectory

The fallout from the June 27, 2024 presidential debate has the Democratic Party, with or without re-nomination for incumbent Joe Biden, facing electoral devastation.

Gallup reports Biden, from June 3–24, 2024, is polling at 38 percent.

Post-debate, some national and state-to-state polls show movement in the direction of 2024 Republican nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump. Some polls have reported a national lead of R+6. 

There now appears to a be a change in the trajectory of this election race.

At least one internal Democratic Party poll shows No. 11 populous state New Jersey—which ranked the No. 13 best state in percentage-points margins for the 2020 Democrats (No. 38 for the Republicans)—is in play and can flip. (It last carried Republican in 1988.)

States like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine (statewide), Virginia, and New Mexico (Nos. 15 to 19 for the 2020 Democrats; Nos. 32 to 36 for the Republicans) are now in play. 

Some of these states connect to other states which vote like them: Minnesota with New Hampshire; New Mexico with Nevada; Virginia with Colorado; New Jersey with Illinois with California; slotted in this area is Oregon (No. 12 for the 2020 Democrats; No. 39 for the Republicans) which votes like neighboring Washington. 

I think this may be an early preview of an expanding electoral map that is only beginning to warm up.

We may or will experience the first United States presidential election since 1988 with a minimum of 40 carried states. Some specific information, in this topic, will focus on this possibly playing out.

From 1992 to 2020, no winner carried more than 32 states. Average number of carried states, with those eight election cycles, were 29. Prevailing Republicans averaged 30 carried states. Prevailing Democrats averaged 28 carried states. To go to 40, which means 80 percent of all states get carried, would be refreshing.

A U.S. presidential election with 40 or more carried states can be described as a Landslide and/or a Wipeout and/or Epic. I consider it an absolute Consensus.

A 4-to-1 ratio of states carried vs. those not carried is healthier than the 3-to-2 ratio played out from 1992 to 2020. It helps discredit some of the propagandistic narratives of there being overwhelming divide among citizens in a Red States–vs.–Blue States United States. 

We have had plenty of these Consensus outcomes. During the 20th century, we had eleven: 1912, 1928, 1932, 1936, 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988.

This nation is overdue.

How will this happen?

Citizens, in response to the presidency of Joe Biden, and overall conditions, will vote to blow out—and blow away—the 2024 Democratic Party.

This is due to every issue—most especially Inflation—which has The People not willing to renew the incumbent White House party for the next four years.

The U.S. Democratic Party is imploding while the Biden presidency is collapsing.

Electoral Map

The map is so alarming for the 2024 Democrats … there is no point of coloring anything Blue.

Solid Red are 2020-to-2024 Republican holds for Trump. (He starts with his 2020 outcome of 25 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 235 electoral votes.)

Light Red are 2020 Democratic-to-2024 Republican pickups. (These are the six commonly focused “Swing States” and, below, I offer an estimate for where they may rank as the Republicans’s No. 26 to No. 31—and to No. 50—for best-performed in their percentage-points margins. Slots.)

 

These “Swing States” combine for +77 electoral votes to bring the map to a minimum 312 electoral votes. (That is, realistically, the starting point.)

For those not colored in Blue, most are vulnerable to a 40-state (or 40-plus state) loss suffered by the 2024 Democrats: They go on the “Watch” list, rather than me focusing on which ones will hold, and appear in Yellow.

Biden’s last name appears in brackets whether or not he ends up his party’s official 2024 nominee.

Reaching 40 States (and Beyond)

In 2020, Trump lost to Biden in the U.S. Popular Vote, 46.80% vs. 51.26%, by a margin of –4.45 percentage points. Let’s call it … –4.

Given that Biden’s job approval is a constant struggle for 40 percent, this area of high-30s to low-40s percent may be the best a 2024 Democratic nominee can get in the U.S. Popular Vote. 

Before all this, I would have guessed a 3-point national margin: Biden 46% vs. Trump 49%. (The remaining five percent combine for all other candidates.) 

Given this new change in trajectory: We may be in 1980 Jimmy Carter-vs.-Ronald Reagan territory. The former received 41.01%. The latter received 50.75%. Reagan carried 44 states. In this case: Biden (or Substitute Nominee) vs. Trump would be in the area of 39 or 40 vs. 50 or 51 percent. The two-party vote combine for, say, 90 to 91 percent. All other candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (perhaps good for 5 to 7 percent nationally), can reap a considerable share of votes the Democrats lose from their party coalition, who they have been alienating, but who would not opt to vote for Trump.

Considering all this…

I estimate Trump will reach 40 carried states if he wins the U.S. Popular Vote by +8. (This was the experience of 1988 George Bush. He carried 40 states and 426 electoral votes.) This would become achieved by a net gain of +12 percentage points.

To go from a national loss of –4 to a win by +8 percentage points, and with a net gain of +15 states (after having carried 25 in 2020), would average +1.25 states with each percentage point nationally shifted. Every +4 percentage points nationally shifted would yield a pickup of +5 states.

U.S. Popular Vote, Percentage-Points Margin, in Relation to Carried Number of States

• R+0: carry 30 states (probable order of pickups: Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania)

• R+4: carry 35 states (Michigan, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Minnesota, New Hampshire, statewide Maine, New Mexico)

• R+8: carry 40 states (Virginia, Colorado, Oregon, New Jersey, Illinois)

• R+12: carry 45 states (Maine’s 1st Congressional District, Washington, New York, Connecticut, California, Delaware)

• R+16: carry 50 states (Rhode Island, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont)

• R+17: carry District of Columbia

All this cannot necessarily be guaranteed. From one election to the next, not everything ends up ranking in the same slot numbers. But, the above list is not far off. The first three groups—No. 26 Georgia to No. 40 Illinois—is accurate (or accurate enough). Getting past 40 carried states is a bit more guess work. (In 2020, the Democrats’s four best states, following non-state District of Columbia, were: Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Hawaii. I rank Rhode Island closely with Hawaii because the two have voted the same since the Aloha State joined the Union and first voted in 1960.)

One more point to consider: In the 1992–2020 period, the highest number of carried Top 10 populous states has been 8. (This was applicable to 1996 Bill Clinton and 2008 Barack Obama.) To surpass 40 states, usually one reaches a ninth Top 10 state. Since after the Civil War, 1936 Franklin Roosevelt, 1964 Lyndon Johnson, and 1980 and 1984 Ronald Reagan carried all of the Top 10. The number of states a presidential winner carries tends to see close to 25 percent of that represented by one’s number of carried Top 10 states. Getting past 40 carried states, Trump would be on his way to No. 9 New York and, if he can sufficiently shift it, No. 10 California.

I will post in the Comments section some videos which are related to this topic.